CPU - Computershare Limited

[bonkers]

Heavy volume on Wednesday 2/11/05

 

[Ken]

I am suprised there hasnt been more on computershare.

They have had a cracking run over the last 5 years.

Majority of there earnings are in US dollars but bell potters says they are oversold and has recommended them to his clients under $9. They are down close to 25% from there highs and are expecting a 17% increase in profits in US dollars, but that equates to just 3% in aussie.....

For information on his interview see www.brr.com.au


And listen to the 9:55 am broker wrap.

 

[michael_selway]

I am suprised there hasnt been more on computershare.

They have had a cracking run over the last 5 years.

Majority of there earnings are in US dollars but bell potters says they are oversold and has recommended them to his clients under $9. They are down close to 25% from there highs and are expecting a 17% increase in profits in US dollars, but that equates to just 3% in aussie.....

For information on his interview see www.brr.com.au


And listen to the 9:55 am broker wrap.

Hm maybe it has run too hard in the past

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 43.1 48.0 53.6 58.8
DPS 17.0 19.7 21.8 22.8

thx

MS

 

[Ken]

To get into the broker wrap audio you go to www.brr.com.au

Put the following the search bar.

5BRR


No from here you can click on the days you want to listen to.

I always listen to Atul-lee-lee he is a genius. On a Friday afternoon at 4:30.

He talked about higher US currency and companies like Newscopr, MIG, ALL, and CSL really struggling.

Worth listening to.

Atul made me a lot of money during August 10 when he eased my fears on the credit crunch.

 

[Ken]

I just thought i would post the info tech index vs the CPU computer share price.

As your can see CPU is basically the info tech index. So if your bullish in info tech stocks then CPU is your best leveraged stock to that particular index. They follow each other and have done for the past 5 years.

 

[Porper]

I just thought i would post the info tech index vs the CPU computer share price.

As your can see CPU is basically the info tech index. So if your bullish in info tech stocks then CPU is your best leveraged stock to that particular index. They follow each other and have done for the past 5 years.

A bit of a turnaround in this stock yesterday.

I was short and doing ok until the surge, so got stopped out, but what is interesting is the island reversal followed by high volume.

The same happened 12 or so bars ago but this wasn't accompanied by the volume increase.

Not sure if there was some news, will be interesting to see how it goes in the next few days.

I'll be looking for a slight retrace to get interested as the risk reward isn't good enough.

 

[michael_selway]

A bit of a turnaround in this stock yesterday.

I was short and doing ok until the surge, so got stopped out, but what is interesting is the island reversal followed by high volume.

The same happened 12 or so bars ago but this wasn't accompanied by the volume increase.

Not sure if there was some news, will be interesting to see how it goes in the next few days.

I'll be looking for a slight retrace to get interested as the risk reward isn't good enough.

Its not bad

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 43.1 47.8 52.5 58.4
DPS 20.0 19.2 21.0 22.4

thx

MS

Date: 23/10/2007
Author: Eli Greenblat
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 51
An acquisition announcement by Computershare failed to gain investor support on22 October 2007. Announcing the purchase of Administar Services Group, whichwill be earnings per share neutral in 2007-08, the shares fell $A0.17 to $A8.78.Most of Computershare's earnings are generated offshore, as highlighted byits August 2007 report in US dollars. The financial services and share registryfirm increased earnings 71.4 per cent to $US233.8 million in 2006-07 and revenuerose 17.1 per cent to $US1.4 billion

 

[So_Cynical]

I'm selling Monday as im back in small profit territory.

Talk about picking the wrong share to make a quick buck at
the bottom of the correction.

 

[So_Cynical]

In again at 7.75 just to cheap and couldn't help myself

CPU is prob a good "in and out" share to hold in these volatile times.

 

[chilliaa]

In again at 7.75 just to cheap and couldn't help myself

CPU is prob a good "in and out" share to hold in these volatile times.

Im not a trader so cant even start to give advice from a trading point of view. But with the recent correction i have been buying CPU and it now comprises my largest holding.
From a fundamental view point i think its very attractive. Here is a brief explanation why:
15yr odd EPS growth with the exception of 2003.
10 yr yearly average PE range 21 to 80, yet expected June 08 yr end PE of only around 15
In December 07 upgraded its anticipated earnings forecast (which seems to have been disregarded by the market with the current volatility).
At these prices the price is the same as around March/April 2006.
10yr/5yr EPS growth have all been good.
LOW debt.

This is definately a buy and hold stock in my opinion.

 

[ROE]

What's up with CPU buying ABS childcare voucher business.. This seem weird
and worse still they pay 90M pound for it...
same price ABS bought in 2006 ... ABS is in trouble and up for asset sale
why did CPU pay full price for this business and ABS probably over pay for this business in 2006 at the height of the bull ... man I can feel pain coming to CPU in the near future.

Sell out come back later

do CPU management have shares in ABS ? that is the question

 

[cbacamden]

Any interest still in CPU ?

I can see an upside at these prices

Anyone else currently holding ? or watching

 

[So_Cynical]

Any interest still in CPU ?

I can see an upside at these prices

Anyone else currently holding ? or watching

Always watching as i still have my profit in from my last CPU adventure,
normally id be saying its a bargain at under $7 - but all this negativity
has finally gotten to me.

What worry's me a little is just how well CPU has held up over the last 6
months when compared to just about everything else...perhaps this is the
SP adjustment CPU had to have.

Also CPU tends to spike down and then turn around pretty quickly...now
the SP seems to be happy to go sideways.

:dunno:

 

[SoBadAtTrading]

Any interest still in CPU ?

I can see an upside at these prices

Anyone else currently holding ? or watching

It's Debt/Equity ratio of 120.0% is a big concern. Plus hasn't it just bought the UK childcare business from ABC recently which may not be very profitable.

 

[So_Cynical]

hasn't it just bought the UK childcare business from ABC recently which may not be very profitable.

No it acquired Busy Bees Childcare Vouchers Limited.

Not childcare centers

http://corporate.computershare.com/...ition of Busy Bees Childcare Vouchers Ltd.pdf

BBCV deals with over 12,000 organisations, providing around 100,000 working
parents with childcare vouchers each month. Computershare is acquiring the business
from ABC Learning Limited, the ASX listed childcare operator.

Didnt help ABC much and i doubt it will do much for CPU.

 

[matty77]

Interesting day...

buying opportunity? What do people think?

I do not hold, but have been wathcing for ages, down 25% since I put on my watch list.

 

[skc]

Interesting day...

buying opportunity? What do people think?

I do not hold, but have been wathcing for ages, down 25% since I put on my watch list.

EPS this year is 53.05c, which put them at a PE of ~16.8 (based on $8.90 share price). But management forecast 5-10% fall in EPS next year (so ~49c), which means a forward PE of 18. The average PE of the sector according to Comsec is 10.9. Although CPU has historically traded at a higher PE multiple to its peers, that premium seems to be falling as the market prices in less and less growth.

Computershare relies on market activities - trading volume as well as new floats, captial raising, takeover etc. In a ranging market those activity levels may be lower. So CPU is a buying opportunity only if you can identify growth opportunities to support a high PE. They have expanded overseas in recent years so there may be potentials there.

On the technical side - it's fallen right onto the 61.8% retracement of the last leg up, and decent support zone at $8.5. Wouldn't surprise me to see may be some sort of bounce (overall market pending) to half fill today's gap over the next week.

 

[So_Cynical]

Interesting day...

buying opportunity? What do people think?

I do not hold, but have been wathcing for ages, down 25% since I put on my watch list.

If i had money id be in like Flynn..i actually had CPU short listed last week for a re-entry at about $10.20 but didn't think it was cheap enough so moved on and thus dodged a bullet, Lets hope it don't rally to quickly so i can exit something and get in at under $9

 

[So_Cynical]

If i had money id be in like Flynn..i actually had CPU short listed last week for a re-entry at about $10.20 but didn't think it was cheap enough so moved on and thus dodged a bullet, Lets hope it don't rally to quickly so i can exit something and get in at under $9

Last edited by prawn_86; 11th-August-2010 at 09:30 PM. Reason: Removed unsubstantiated price target

Hey i just noticed that edit prawn : ill PM you a "i told you so" in a few years time when CPU achieves that particularly ambitious price target of mine.

--------------

Anyway CPU spiking down yesterday and today coming within 9 cents of my low ball buy order i live in hope of the US having a bit of a tank down tonight so i can get filled tomorrow.

 

[So_Cynical]

I just couldn't help myself today and moved my buy order up to $9.59 in the early arvo and got filled ...CPU is now my single largest holding making up 11.8% of my total portfolio, today's entry is also my largest ever ($) buy, so a real punt for me..have to say im very confident the SP will rally from here, CPU just never goes sideways for long.

The recent fall in profit was attributed to a lack of activity in global markets and now we are seeing increased activity...still a long way to go to get back to the big volumes of the last bull but eventually it will come.

CPU is a must have portfolio stock for me, a core holding so i just couldn't pass up this chance to re-enter for my 4th time in 4 years....i expect my 100% success rate with CPU to continue, im very hopeful of being out of this trade before May...i have a very high confidence level with this stock.