CUE - CUE Energy

[BESBS Player]

Reading with interest the debate going on. I hold a small parcel of CUE.

While CUE has an exciting longer term outlook, I suspect that CUE are under SP pressure for a few reasons (many listed above):
* current market volatility
* the market not being willing to pay upfront for production until it actually sees the oil/gas (and even then, it is reluctant at the moment).
* any delay would just encourage punters to hold back a little longer in this market

For me, the other is the question over the financing of upcoming drilling at Zeus etc. Will the funding come through from all the other partners? In this economic environment, the market is generally suspicious.

It will be interesting to see how it all works out for CUE in the next 3 months

 

[oldblue]

Fair points, BP.

The delay in getting Maari drilling underway is a nuisance, and no doubt costly, but the saver is that CUE is currently earning from other projects and has two very strong shareholders in Todd Petroleum and Singapore Petroleum.

The key to funding of Zeus lies in the commitment and financial strength of RDI who are earning a 35% interest from MEO (60%) by funding 80% of capped well cost up to USD31.25m.
Does anyone have any info on RDI ?

 

[treefrog]

from FN arena news
Tuesday 14 October 2008 - 10:53 AM
Weaker economic conditions are creating a cyclical downturn in the oil market and analysts are lowering their price expectations accordingly.

 

[JeSSica WaBBit]

And portfolio whipped back $9,000..................

My portfolio is now almost break even showing a modest 0.09% or $53.30gain. I'm back to where i started and looking down the barrell.

Holding on tight.......................

Still have a buy in at 11.5 cents and i'll keep buying in small parcels. If oil continues to fall tonight and the DOW is off i could have a chance tomorrow, especially being Friday.

Hey Treefrog, what do you think the bottom for oil will be?

I just dont see the Arabs letting it slip too much further, however, there next meeting isnt until 18th November so anything could happen between now and then????

JW - looking forward to another weekend of sun and sand

 

[treefrog]

And portfolio whipped back $9,000..................

My portfolio is now almost break even showing a modest 0.09% or $53.30gain. I'm back to where i started and looking down the barrell.

Holding on tight.......................

Still have a buy in at 11.5 cents and i'll keep buying in small parcels. If oil continues to fall tonight and the DOW is off i could have a chance tomorrow, especially being Friday.

Hey Treefrog, what do you think the bottom for oil will be?

I just dont see the Arabs letting it slip too much further, however, there next meeting isnt until 18th November so anything could happen between now and then????

JW - looking forward to another weekend of sun and sand

keep an eye out for lapin fur traders JW
like the support at $40US - but market sentiment will determine - spooked atm so very volatile. established trend is down so needs some fundamentals to change to turn it.
some "green grass" appearing on the CMF section of this chart will help - like it did back in june 07

 

[treefrog]

keep an eye out for lapin fur traders JW
like the support at $40US - but market sentiment will determine - spooked atm so very volatile. established trend is down so needs some fundamentals to change to turn it.
some "green grass" appearing on the CMF section of this chart will help - like it did back in june 07

appologies that was index not price chart.
support zone is $70US as apparent here - was too preoccupied on where the money inflow started to show support and can't get CMF trace on price chart

 

[JeSSica WaBBit]

Always got one eye out for the fur traders Treefrog, never know when they are sneaking up.

I have decided i will buy a further 20,000 shares on Monday, if i can get them for 13 cents or less.

That will bring me up to 470,000................

 

[JeSSica WaBBit]

Got them, 1st cab off the rank 20,000 @ 13 cents

No harm was done to my average and it remains at 13 cents.

I dont see how the price can remian at these levels with OPEC looking to cut production and increase global oil prices, Maari, BTP and Zeus all just around the corner.

If nothing else i have locked up some more shares.


JW

 

[oldblue]

From HZN Quarterly Activities report, released today.

" Ensco 107 rig parked 75m off the platform waiting on a good weather window to come alongside and commence development drilling."

Complete with photo.

 

[treefrog]

From HZN Quarterly Activities report, released today.

" Ensco 107 rig parked 75m off the platform waiting on a good weather window to come alongside and commence development drilling."

Complete with photo.

gotta give it to HZN board - very honest mob. that report also (in effect) said the delays are causing significant cash burn:
"The oil and gas industry has experienced severe cost
pressures over the last few years, and the Maari development
is no exception in that respect. Horizon Oil’s share of forecast
development expenditure to completion has increased by
44% to US$52.4 million, compared with the pre-sanction
estimate of US$36.5 million in October 2005." and;
"At the time of writing this message, the Ensco 107 is waiting on weather to move to the Maari platform and begin the development drilling program of 6 production wellbores and 3 water injectors. On the basis that the rig can move within the next two weeks, first oil production into the FPSO is expected in January 2009."
take care - on the plus side the XEJ (energy index) chart looks promising from this tree.

 

[JeSSica WaBBit]

Well, those shares i bought at 13 cents just paid for themselves.............

Just go and have a look at the market depth, it paints a good picture.

We have a gap up from what looks to me like a double bottom.

The SP is Up 8.33% Thursday, Up 7.69% Friday, Up 3.57% Monday and Up 10.34% today. As soon as the quicker moving average crossed the slow moving average we have been away.

This has got to be a break out, volume with price increase, even with oil off last night it is still strong!!

I suggest 19 cents is the resistance to keep an eye on. If it breaks that then i see 21 cents as the next major hurdle.

725,000 traded today and Melbourne had a holiday, if we have the same tomorrow, well, say no more because there are only 120,000 for sale all the way up to 19.5 cnets.

And if oil goes up tonight, you can thank you Mum for the Wabbits!!!!

JW Creaming it in........................

 

[JeSSica WaBBit]

Looking to follow Americas lead today, oil up a whopping $7.50 a barrel and the DOW currently up 170 points but looking like it might come off some more before the close.

You can take what you want from that but i'd say this is very bullish for CUE.

Looking forward to seeing the market depth on open, there are virtually no sellers.

An annoucement on Maari should come any day now, just hoping the weather has been favourable in NZ.

As i said yesterday, with oil up over 10%, you can thank your mother for the wabbits folks......................

JW

 

[oldblue]

Hi JW.

Yes, all my rabbits coming home to roost, too, ( to mangle a metaphor or something) with the SP at 19c!

Regret to say that the lower west coast of the North Island is still getting plenty of wind - it is after all the equinoxial northerly gale season - but the longer range forecast is for lesser swells for a few days from about Friday/Saturday. In any case, I get the feeling that CUE's SP is not being driven so much by Maari at present as by other factors, particularly Zeus.

 

[seasprite]

MEO release

Key Points: Songa Venus now expected to be released from current well late November
MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA (November 5, 2008) -- MEO Australia Limited (ASX: MEO) is pleased to advise the following update on the timing of drilling Zeus-1. The assignment of the Songa Venus drilling rig to MEO was scheduled for late October 2008. Unfortunately, drilling difficulties are being experienced, unrelated to rig capability, in completing the last well under Songa’s current Contract. On the basis that drilling and testing of this well continues as planned then the likely release of the rig to the Songa Venus Consortium for MEO’s Zeus-1 well will be delayed until the end of November 2008. Consequently the expected spud date of the Zeus-1 well is currently forecast to be early December 2008

 

[Sean K]

Looking to follow Americas lead today, oil up a whopping $7.50 a barrel and the DOW currently up 170 points but looking like it might come off some more before the close.

You can take what you want from that but i'd say this is very bullish for CUE.

As i said yesterday, with oil up over 10%, you can thank your mother for the wabbits folks......................

JW

Dow off 3.5%, oil down 7%, CUE not quite making it to critical resistance at 20c.

Take from that what you want, but I'd say this is bearish for CUE.

Guess we can thank your mother for the wabbits..........

:

 

[Shrewd Crude]

kennas,
here is what CUE has coming over the next year...

Manaia appraisal well 2009 (very low risk)
Bariweka-3 appraisal well 2009 (pre discovered)
matariki exploration well 2009 (attractive seismics)
ongoing maari... development 2008/2009 (is worth total current value of CUE's current market Cap alone)...
spikey beach.. exploration...2009 (free carried)
two wells in Jeruk (similar size to Maari)... appraisal...2009 wild card
Cash Maple.... development plan 2009... (pre discovered large gas resouce)
Zeus....exploration well... 2008 (free carried, big target)
Kimu.... appraisal 2010 and onwards... (wild card, 2014 production PNG LNG)
Cobra discovery... ongoing intrepretation...
Oyong Oil....existing production...
Oyong Gas... production 2009...
Wortel Gas.... production 2010...
ongoing SE Gobe (small scale)...ongoing production...

Theres nothing bearish about CUE whatsoever... even if oil hits $40 bucks a barrel US... Maari is still profitable at that price...
...
CUE has proven gas assets worth 1.5 billion (back of paper)...
5 million barrels of Oil (with Manaia)...
and a market cap under 100 million....

cheers...

.^sc

 

[oldblue]

Article quoting OMV spokesman on delays in Maari production.
Not great news, although signs have been mounting that the timetable has slipped considerably.

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssEnergyNews/idUSSP6586720081107

 

[h3ath]

Good news.

First Maari well has been spudded.

Finally!

http://www.petroleumnews.net/storyview.asp...ctionsource=s68

 

[Shrewd Crude]

The biggest mistake I made with this investment, was I did not think the share price would fall in any market because of what it had coming up...
I was wrong... I misinterpretted the Delays on Maari development drilling which cost the company a delay of 3 months (which is not usually such a major thing) as the company is the same as it was last month, just timing of the assets change... this time delay allowed the market to come in and depress the share price on major down market days...
usual delays are just apart of this industry we invest in with no usual big outfall...

One thing we can now be sure of is that the Ensoc 107 rig is now in position over Maari and its getting setup for drilling which is now due to start any day...
this is the moment Ive been waiting for 3 months...
Zeus and Spikey wells (both free carried targets) spudding next month...
The West Triton drilling rig (about to drill pee-jay) and moving onto Spikey beach next was damaged which explains the further hold up there...
Recent announcement by BPT suggests spud any day at pee-jay......
as always got to be patient...

big 2009 coming... the only thing standing in CUE's way of making multibaggers off its current sp in 2009 is oil prices...
If there is a major fallout, then we could have problems...
I cant see it...ie 25 US oil...

happily holding CUE in a big way...
peace out...

.^sc

 

[treefrog]

Cost of winning Maari Oil may be becoming marginal with low oil prices - might be better off capping and waiting for better prices rather than emptying the reservoir for little gain thro' 09,10