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CUE - CUE Energy

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Shrewd Crude said:
I

where do you think the SP will be in 5 months?
Click to expand...

tough ask crude but will explain my reasoning to estimate this - many variables as you know so must make some assumptions:
1) oil currently $80 so mid mar 09 assume $100 - turning general market sentiment on the XEJ and CUE with it
2) note that CUE was tracking with the XEJ earlier this year but fell off due to not meeting projected targets
3) assuming there is no more similar bad news (CUE will be punished even more heavilly if there is as delays burn cash, not produce it and we would have CUE heading into the multiple miss target category and need more cash??)
so, sp of 20c
cheers
 

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tree frog,
you must understand that delays are just apart of business in the oil industry... it is very very common for oil projects to get delayed... arrival of rigs get held up all the time...no projects come through on time... that does not mean that projects get heavily discounted !... its all market related...
you dont really understand this business do you...
... The SP would have not fallen under any other circumstances because the market was oblivious to the length of time on delays, which would cause suspense to actually build...
CUE will not need ever need to raise cash again...
I believe its self funded from here on in...
it also has 1.5 billion dollars worth of gas assets to loan against...(and it has loaned against company assets).. later dude
:cool:
.^sc
 
Shrewd Crude said:
tree frog,
you must understand that delays are just apart of business in the oil industry... it is very very common for oil projects to get delayed... arrival of rigs get held up all the time...no projects come through on time... that does not mean that projects get heavily discounted !... its all market related...
you dont really understand this business do you...
... The SP would have not fallen under any other circumstances because the market was oblivious to the length of time on delays, which would cause suspense to actually build...
CUE will not need ever need to raise cash again...
I believe its self funded from here on in...
it also has 1.5 billion dollars worth of gas assets to loan against...(and it has loaned against company assets).. later dude
:cool:
.^sc
Click to expand...
sorry crude but you are making it up as you go along and sounding sillier by the minute........."no projects come through on time" - absurd: same ill considered remarks as it won't dip to 18c or 13.5c
 
Oh tree frog,
Im right... slidding schedule is very common occurance...
especially on major development projects going into production... In the last five years, I have not seen One single production start up on time...
its very rare... theres always cost overruns, and hold ups of equipment etc...
rising prices have taken care of that but Oil is now falling...
Maari is economical at 40 bucks US...
Ive not made all this up
Can you name me one major production start up on time?
and more importantly, an offshore one?
:cool:
.^sc
 
Monday will be a massacre for CUE, oil is off $9.00 and the DOW is off 228 points.

Think i'll put in a buy at 11.5cents and leave it with the Gods..................................

Hold on tight guys, things are about to get rough as hell.


JW :D:cool::D
 
I've just read on another forum that the Maari rig is reported as still off Tasman Bay, tugs not in attendance.

The good news is that the current favourable weather is expected to last a few more days.

More patience required!
 
JeSSica WaBBit said:
Monday will be a massacre for CUE, oil is off $9.00 and the DOW is off 228 points.

Think i'll put in a buy at 11.5cents and leave it with the Gods..................................

Hold on tight guys, things are about to get rough as hell.


JW :D:cool::D
Click to expand...

Not quite as bad as that, JW.

Bloomberg reports that the Dow finished down 128 points after being all over the charts all day.
You're probably right though in that we won't see any improvement on Monday.
 
Shrewd Crude said:
Oh tree frog,
Im right... slidding schedule is very common occurance...
especially on major development projects going into production... In the last five years, I have not seen One single production start up on time...
its very rare... theres always cost overruns, and hold ups of equipment etc...
rising prices have taken care of that but Oil is now falling...
Maari is economical at 40 bucks US...
Ive not made all this up
Can you name me one major production start up on time?
and more importantly, an offshore one?
:cool:
.^sc
Click to expand...
that would be difficult I concede, but I could name those that have beaten their targets but before we get into that crude, have a look at the rantings of one pommiegranite on the TZL thread - you remind me an awful lot of that "shoot the messenger" character who failed to put their money where their mouth was.
a very significant piece of gratis advice for you crude: you need to know where you are before you head off to your destination.
Much of your detracting rants proclaim I know nothing about the oil business whereas you do: sorry mate, but we are not working in the oil industry, we are in the share market. If some day you can accept that it will be an excellent start for you to begin getting a handle on your investments.
Ps - in good faith I responded to your ask about the possible CUE price in 5 months and you spat in my face - why would i now provide you further info??
 
had a PM request to clarify the above chart - yes is unclear, sorry
red trace is XEJ (energy index) and black is CUE
the divergence (CUE failing to stay proportionally with index) is what I have referred to as the market discounting CUE for missing key targets (delay)
 

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tree frog
1)that would be difficult I concede,
2)but I could name those that have beaten their targets but before we get into that crude,
3)have a look at the rantings of one pommiegranite on the TZL thread - you remind me an awful lot of that "shoot the messenger" character who failed to put their money where their mouth was.
4)a very significant piece of gratis advice for you crude: you need to know where you are before you head off to your destination.
5)Much of your detracting rants proclaim I know nothing about the oil business whereas you do: sorry mate, but we are not working in the oil industry, we are in the share market.
6)If some day you can accept that it will be an excellent start for you to begin getting a handle on your investments.
7)Ps - in good faith I responded to your ask about the possible CUE price in 5 months and you spat in my face - why would i now provide you further info??
Click to expand...
treefrog,
1)humm so im not making it up as I go along...
2)Irrelevant to the point I was making
3)not interested... not even an oil stock.. and my money is where my mouth is... Im 60% all in on CUE at 21.6c...
4)good advice...
5)thats not true...I never said that at all... sorry if you got that impression, and feel that way...
quote me mate?
6)I am going to remain humble dude... You know nothing about my historical trading successes
7)I was trying to be friendly... Why would someone who undermines another be interested in hearing a response...?

All I have done is attack your reasoning behind why CUE's share price has fallen... Yes you called it right, but you came back here and said its totally company related... maybe in other sectors delays have an impact, but I have generally not seen this to be the csse in the Oil industry, because as I have said, Delays are just apart of playing this game in the Oil industry..

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CUE&E=ASX&N=231031

Check out this Link Tree frog...
This announcement was made in 2005 when CUE made an acquisition of Maari for $2.48 per barrel...
It says first production was expected in 2nd quarter 2007...
if you look at the chart it trended up between march (12c) to september 07 (25c)... On the Chart those three downward Spikes were all market reated...
August 2007, November 2007, Jan 2007... and late Sept and Oct 2008 was market related... All I am arguing is that you said CUE's destruction was company related... Im saying that you could not be more wrong...
:cool:
.^sc
 
heres the two year chart for you to study...
0

On the chart you can see the heavy downward spikes...
Are these company related spikes?
;)
.^sc
 
crude:
this is what I posted on 9th august 2008 on this thread at #217 (emphasis this post)

"But the market has decided that all that gain should be given back, mostly I suspect on the negatives in the significant slippage of first oil from Marri and the turn in crude prices.
Lets assume that first oil from Maari slips further; the world oil price also keeps dropping and just one other of the CUE expected positives (there are many at risk) also comes up just a little short of expectations."

I have always suggested both would be, are, and can still be factors in CUE's share price and intend to leave this matter at that.
Q.E.D.
 
Tree frog,
You called CUE right because of markets crashing pulling CUE down with it...
CUE was not looking like a fall for any other reason...
You just dont know how wrong you are...!
just one other of the CUE expected positives (there are many at risk) also comes up just a little short of expectations
Click to expand...
Do you mean, like the recent Cobra discovery?
Oh yeah, markets wrote it off because of the market situation...
Oh no.... it was bad company performance... Yeah thats it...
they are bad operators...

come on man... dont be so short sighted...
its all about the markets... CUEs fall from 22c to 14c has nothing to do with the company...
You should have just said, "CUE is going to fall because markets are going to crash"... and then I could accept your argument as being true...
The argument you have stated is the biggest load of baloney going around, that I have seen for some time....
All stocks are falling... are they too falling because of poor company performance?
get a grip mate...

explanation gets me know where with you:banghead:...
cant you see where you have gotten it wrong...?
can you not see that the hold up of Maari from 2nd quarter 2007 had no major consequences to the SP until markets came and had a stab at the stock... I posted the evidence... you figure out the rest...

I suggest that you go and have alook at other production start ups and see what happened to their share prices...

note how Tree frog inflates the bits about oil prices... thats the only thing you called right buddy... we all knew that prices were falling and were likely to keep falling...
I even posted that this company will perform at lower prices...
which is true...

And I have already explained that Oil stocks are torn between market forces, and the price of oil...eg if prices rise and markets fall... then oil stocks go sideways... when oil prices fall, and markets rise then oil stocks go sideways... these are (under normal market conditions) appropriate.. maybe not with markets crashing...

I hope you continue to make many good calls on stocks tree frog...
I hope that next time you relate those calls to crashing markets, when company performance was not the issue... Your understanding of the facts, and what has effected this company is very poor...

I agree... lets leave it at that... good day...
:cool:
.^sc
 
Shrewd...hate to say it mate...but treefrog is remaining calm, rational, accepting errors etc...you are coming off quite arrogant and silly. Maybe tone it down a bit? I think you are missing the point of Treefrogs analysis and quotes completely.

Companies get severely punished for delays and bad timelines. CVN announced that results should be known in 10 days back in early Aug from memory...it took them over 5 or 6 weeks. People sell out of frustration/timing issues...it ´s just what happens. Markets have crashed...no doubt...but delays only make the job tougher for a company...all the more reason to sell from punters not willing to accept the failure to adhere to timelines.

JTLP
 
JTLP,
I am quite familar with CVN...
CVN is one of the best stocks around... targeting production of 15,000 BOPD by years end...
and its got a M cap of around 170 million...
future PE of around .5 at these prices...
in the time that CVN have fallen from 80c to 27c, company performance has improved remarkably...
exceptional results from NSE-A1, NSE-A2, NSE-A3...
I think CVN's delays are more to do with severe Rioting than anything else, and crashing markets finishing it off...
CVN's drilling results have been exceptional...
delays are just apart of this business...
I will put a post up on the CVN thread...
:cool:
.^sc
 
JTLP,
if you look at the spec end of the market, you will see that CUE has outperformed most oil stocks this year (even though it has now fallen 33%)...
hey look at STO ( a great stock)... it has fallen 8 bucks in the last few weeks.. thats more than 33%...
Yes, bad company performance all around... I agree... STO (CUE JV partner) is not performing... management should be doing more...
;)
.^sc
 
Reported on another forum that the Maari rig is still anchored in Tasman Bay, no sign of tugs. This despite several days of settled weather recently.

Oh, well.


:(
 
Oh Yeah!!!

Thats what we want to see, portfolio up $9,000 today and looking good.

Just a big thanks to the bods who sold their shares to me at a discount, very generous...........

See if the price holds for the remainder of the week

JW too cool :D:cool::D
 

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