Costello - Next PM of Australia?

[Garpal Gumnut]

Sorry to p on the party but my latest information is that he is wavering on whether to stay or go. Its his style I guess.

gg

 

[skint]

Sorry to p on the party but my latest information is that he is wavering on whether to stay or go. Its his style I guess.

gg

Probably trying to drum up interest in his book - yawn. The problem for him is that the electorate is aware that not only was he an architect of Workchoices, but wanted to take it further. Amongst other issues, post polling put workchoices right up there for assigning the coalition to the naughty step. Talk about an easy political target. Then there's the larger problem of why he wasn't drafted earlier. After more than a decade in the spotlight, he is still perceived as a spineless jerk with a smirk, who lacked the gumption to challenge. He should stop wavering and wave good-bye, although he probably couldn't decide whether he wants soldiers or squares with his eggs without Howard's permission.

 

[Julia]

Hi Julia,


I think they could of (gratuitous Julia feather ruffling)

Hmm, I'm trying to decide whether to sulk or purse my lips in indignation at this!

Apart from the above indiscretion, Skint, I pretty much agree with what you're saying.

 

[wayneL]

Then there's the larger problem of why he wasn't drafted earlier. After more than a decade in the spotlight, he is still perceived as a spineless jerk with a smirk, who lacked the gumption to challenge. He should stop wavering and wave good-bye, although he probably couldn't decide whether he wants soldiers or squares with his eggs without Howard's permission.

Yep, the smirk is a perceptual problem. But in regard to the spineless bit; I don't think that's quite fair.

Sun Tzu in The Art of War admonishes military generals to have the battle won before the first attack. At no stage did Costello ever have the numbers, so why challenge? It would have been suicide. To take the leadership after the election defeat was always going to be a poisoned chalice and Pete was ####ing wise to step out of the way.

Similar situation over here in Blighty, but handled completely differently. bLiar was hugely popular with Crash Gordon in a similar position to Costello, as Chancellor of the Exchequer; and his eyes on the leadership.

But the stupid bstard did manage to elbow bLiar out of the way...AT THE WORST POSSIBLE TIME, right as the economy was about to roll over into the abyss.

Perhaps he was too stupid and ambitious at any cost to see that. Perhaps bLiar was smart enough to see it coming and jumped out of the way. Either way Gordon McBean in the most unpopular PM EVER. Whether or not it's his fault that the economy is toast (it is) is irrelevant, it was appalling timing.

Pete ain't that dumb and I would have thought much less of him as a politician if he had picked up the baton.

That's my view.

 

[2020hindsight]

agree
and I've got a quiet 35cents that he doesn't take the leadership offer now either. - He's a brilliant performer in Parliament of course, but hard to imagine him doing the long hard trek through the wilderness to the next election. He can make serious money out there in the real world!
thassa guess of course.

Meanwhile Labor are attacking him, ... just in case lol
http://www.theage.com.au/national/rudd-plots-ir-attack-on-costello-20080802-3ozw.html

PS Maybe he's seen enough of politics to know that a man of integrity wouldn't even put his foot in the water in the first place? (which is defeatist I know).

 

[skint]

Yep, the smirk is a perceptual problem. But in regard to the spineless bit; I don't think that's quite fair.

Sun Tzu in The Art of War admonishes military generals to have the battle won before the first attack. At no stage did Costello ever have the numbers, so why challenge? It would have been suicide. To take the leadership after the election defeat was always going to be a poisoned chalice and Pete was ####ing wise to step out of the way.

Similar situation over here in Blighty, but handled completely differently. bLiar was hugely popular with Crash Gordon in a similar position to Costello, as Chancellor of the Exchequer; and his eyes on the leadership.

But the stupid bstard did manage to elbow bLiar out of the way...AT THE WORST POSSIBLE TIME, right as the economy was about to roll over into the abyss.

Perhaps he was too stupid and ambitious at any cost to see that. Perhaps bLiar was smart enough to see it coming and jumped out of the way. Either way Gordon McBean in the most unpopular PM EVER. Whether or not it's his fault that the economy is toast (it is) is irrelevant, it was appalling timing.

Pete ain't that dumb and I would have thought much less of him as a politician if he had picked up the baton.

That's my view.

I agree, that Costello would have been unwise to pick up the "poisoned chalice" after the election defeat. It's also true that he didn't have the numbers well before the election. Challengers often don't. What seperates the tenacious from the rest, is their ability to firstly create the numbers and secondly, to not be afraid to risk it all, when the opportunity arises, if they believe they are the best one for the job. Take the Keating example:

-As treasurer, he began to increasingly comment pubicly outside his portfolio
-Challenged regardless, when he didn't have the numbers
-Inevitably declared that was his first and final challenge as challengers (including Howard) do, whilst continueing to snipe from the back bench, further destabilising the party but also building his own support base within and outside the party on a broad raft of issues. Basically did what leaders do - lead
-won the leadership and the next election

Costello didn't have the ability or the bottle for any of that when the polls were turning sharply against the coalition. Depending on your viewpoint, both the scum and the cream rise to the top. An also ran like Costello never had, and never will, have what it takes to be elected PM. Although Howard IMO was finally and deservedly turfed out of the PM'ship and his own seat, no-one could accuse him of lacking tenacity. Costello just hangs around waiting to be worshipped.

 

[bunyip]

Agree, but its not a bad idea every now and then to have the other mob in, to make people realise how lucky they were and to let the left have a go at putting their ideas into the marketplace. Seeing Keating this week promenading brought back all the bad memories.

gg

Keating was always a grubby little individual and still is. His exceptional talent for vindictiveness and nastiness is in strong contrast to the incompetence he demonstrated as treasurer and Prime Minister. To see Keating on TV throwing stones at Howard and Costello - two men who were always streets ahead of him in terms of both character and ability - is almost too much to bear.
I sincerely hope Costello comes back to lead the Liberals, but I think now is too soon. Let Rudd go on for a while longer without any serious opposition, give him time to become increasingly unpopular. Then bring Costello back maybe 6 to 12 months before the next election.

 

[Sean K]

I sincerely hope Costello comes back to lead the Liberals, but I think now is too soon. Let Rudd go on for a while longer without any serious opposition, give him time to become increasingly unpopular. Then bring Costello back maybe 6 to 12 months before the next election.

I agree, timing will be important, but I'm still not sure Costello is the man at any time. Just not a people person.

I have no alternative right now.

Maybe Bindi will be ready by the next election?

 

[bunyip]

There something particularly pathetic about ex-leaders still seeking the limelight. John Howard is one of the few who hasn't done this.
Malcolm Fraser is especially notable for his constant carping about both sides of government.

And John Hewson failed miserably as Leader but now appears to regard himself as an expert on everything.
QUOTE]


Yes, it really is quite pathetic to see ex pollies still mouthing off on TV as if they're experts on everything. They just can't seem to comprehend that if they were voted out of office, that means the public is not particularly interested in their views.
I wouldn't be too sure that John Howard doesn't do it though......I've seen him on TV having his say a few times over the last several months.
Keating, Fraser, and more recently John Hewson, are notorious for it. And Whitlam too, before he got too old, although he still has an odd spruik.

 

[bunyip]

Um didnt costello as a treasurer already send our economy into a tailspin with his lapsadaical financial management and irresponsible ecomomic planning ?

No, he didn't.

 

[skint]

Costello doesn't have a prayer nor the ticker. He's never challenged for anything, and even now he would only assume the leadership if it was handed to him on a platter. Many have confused his term as treasurer during the largest boom in memory as evidence of good management. I disagree. The big economic changes that have placed Australia in a position to prosper from the boom are:

1) Floating the dollar. Find an economist who disagrees!
2) Decentralising wages
3) Tying wage increases to productivity following a temporary wage freeze to stem the wages breakout that occured under Howard as treasurer
4) Compulsory super to cope with the costs of an ageing population (Johnny cut the progress short)
5) The establishment of a 2-3% inflation target range that has now been adopted in the rest of the developed world

These changes sound like they originate from the conservative side of politics? Check the history books. The sum total of the coalition's reforms were to introduce a GST and go gangbusters with middle class welfare and ridiculous spending. The reserve was screaming at them for years to stop fueling inflation, and by extension, interest rates. We know how that story ended as well.

As well as being a lousy treasurer, polling has indicated that he is very clearly unelectable. Surely the coalition can come up with someone, anyone, to put Nelson out of ours and his misery.

Keating was always a grubby little individual and still is. His exceptional talent for vindictiveness and nastiness is in strong contrast to the incompetence he demonstrated as treasurer and Prime Minister. To see Keating on TV throwing stones at Howard and Costello - two men who were always streets ahead of him in terms of both character and ability - is almost too much to bear.
I sincerely hope Costello comes back to lead the Liberals, but I think now is too soon. Let Rudd go on for a while longer without any serious opposition, give him time to become increasingly unpopular. Then bring Costello back maybe 6 to 12 months before the next election.

In my post from the previous page, I provided quite a few examples of significant structural economic reforms initiated during the Labor years. You haven't actually provided any evidence of productive structural reform. Strangely dificult task, given he was there for 11 years. The best that can be said of Costello is that whilst he only kept the seat warm during a boom, at least he didn't start sniffing other people's seats like the WA bloke.

 

[bunyip]

In my post from the previous page, I provided quite a few examples of significant structural economic reforms initiated during the Labor years. You haven't actually provided any evidence of productive structural reform. Strangely dificult task, given he was there for 11 years. The best that can be said of Costello is that whilst he only kept the seat warm during a boom, at least he didn't start sniffing other people's seats like the WA bloke.

I wasn't aware that I was under any obligation to provide evidence of anything. I'm not interested in trying to change your view that Costello was a dud and Keating was a champion. I'm happy for you to believe whatever you want.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

In my post from the previous page, I provided quite a few examples of significant structural economic reforms initiated during the Labor years. You haven't actually provided any evidence of productive structural reform. Strangely dificult task, given he was there for 11 years. The best that can be said of Costello is that whilst he only kept the seat warm during a boom, at least he didn't start sniffing other people's seats like the WA bloke.

skint mate, You can post all the economic waffle that you wish, but the bottom line is that many of my mates went broke in the Keating years and many prospered in the Costello years. Keating compounded this by his arrogance and lack of empathy. Ask any Labor believer and they will say that Keating is still on the nose. Costello was treasurer during the most productive episode of the last 30 years. Whether this was luck or good management is immaterial. He didn't implode to hubris as Keating did.

gg

 

[OK2]

bring back Costello, odds are firming if you are a gambling person. From $2.50 three weeks ago down to $1.70 today, better return than the stock market over the last few years.

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,,24200871-5005961,00.html

 

[Julia]

Here is today's offering on Costello from Crikey.com:

----------------

Mr Costello said he had spoken to his family and had decided to not accept the leadership.

"[I want to] spend time with my family, they've paid a heavy priced for [my] 11 1/2 years as the treasurer," he said.

Journalists attending the news conference had been expecting him to come out and announce his candidacy for the Liberal party leadership.

He is to remain the member for Higgins, in Victoria, for now, saying he wanted to "mentor" younger members of the party.

And what has changed overnight, today, last week? Nothing ... other than someone's wish to add Costello's name to a piece of polling. Those same steady hands at Fairfax have joined in the recent clamor propelled by their colleagues at The Australian, a clamor of pundits all of them eager to have a reluctant Costello resurrected. So we see Costello added to some Neilsen polling. You might as well have asked whether voters would prefer Kermit The Frog, the result would have been as telling as today's report that the bulk of voters want Costello. The fact is, on the available evidence, neither Frog nor Costello are in the running.

That said, there is obviously a vacuum at the head and heart of the Australian Liberals. This is where Crikey readers can help.

Nominate your selection for the Leadership of the Australian Liberal Party.

We'll total your thoughts and then let you vote for a winner. It's almost as meaningful as polling on the future intentions of Peter Costello.



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[2020hindsight]

skint mate, You can post all the economic waffle that you wish, but the bottom line is that many of my mates ... etc

hey gg
are they the same mates who had "the good oil" that Costello would take up the leadership position?

 

[Julia]

Skint, given your vehement criticism of Costello as Treasurer, may we assume you have complete confidence in Mr Swan's ability to guide Australia once more to financial health?

 

[aacantona]

As I've always maintained, Labor winning is the best thing for the conservatives.

It will mean the economy tanks on Labor's watch, meanwhile the Libs can have the necessary and cleansing catharsis of ratbags, wasters, dunderheads and scoundrels from the front bench.

Even if it takes two terms, the party will be all the better for it.

And I still think Pete would make a fine PM.

Conservatives? I'd hardly call the libs "conservatives" and as far Kevin Rudd being the most conservative ALP leader in history, what bollocks! I think politics is in a sad state at the moment, with a bunch of spineless muppets on both sides taking no position other than that of public opinion.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

hey gg
are they the same mates who had "the good oil" that Costello would take up the leadership position?

Yes 2020, word is he will resign when the book comes out and take up some lucrative directorships. Like you I feel it will be devastating for the country. Any of your mob tipping Kevvie to do the same ??

gg

 

[wayneL]

Conservatives? I'd hardly call the libs "conservatives" and as far Kevin Rudd being the most conservative ALP leader in history, what bollocks! I think politics is in a sad state at the moment, with a bunch of spineless muppets on both sides taking no position other than that of public opinion.

Well as I've termed them in the past as Laboral and Libor, I'm definitely in the same camp as you. But why is that?

Tin foil hatters might have an answer.