ASSET SALES is the key forward for cnp and sp.I think anyone looking to takeover cnp,won't, until the debt is stabilised,and that won't happen until assets are sold.Banks will also be more supportive...and so on..If the banks approve conditions to may30, the sp should rise..but i think once cnp has negoiated the offer for caf(centro america fund=$1bil book value),sp should rocket.
CNP - Centro Properties Group
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0938 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL:
Credit Suisse upgrades Centro Retail (CER.AU) to Outperform from Neutral, keeps 58 cent target.
"Our rationale is based on portfolio theory as much as valuation: we do not think a 'naked' exposure to a Centro recovery is prudent (we have a corresponding Underperform on Centro Properties (CNP.AU))," analyst says. "The Centro entities have massive refinancing needs as well as litigation risk. However, in an improving credit market, the odds of a resolution with some remaining equity value to CER unitholders is improving," analyst says. Also notes that U.S. REITs, a potential buyer of CER assets, hit an all-time high last week, with strip REITs up 10.6% in the year to date. CER last at 38.5 cents. (LMF)
Credit Suisse upgrades Centro Retail (CER.AU) to Outperform from Neutral, keeps 58 cent target.
"Our rationale is based on portfolio theory as much as valuation: we do not think a 'naked' exposure to a Centro recovery is prudent (we have a corresponding Underperform on Centro Properties (CNP.AU))," analyst says. "The Centro entities have massive refinancing needs as well as litigation risk. However, in an improving credit market, the odds of a resolution with some remaining equity value to CER unitholders is improving," analyst says. Also notes that U.S. REITs, a potential buyer of CER assets, hit an all-time high last week, with strip REITs up 10.6% in the year to date. CER last at 38.5 cents. (LMF)
All good, I guess I missed another buying opportunity over past few days.. that's what these SP slides are in fact, but we just can't pick the bottom. I have really given up on that and am holding my CNPs with no thoughts of buying or selling now as its too stressful. Enough to keep what I have and watch it go up and down like a yo yo performer and I admire how clever it is
lets see if it can rocket and stay up for a while like a good girls' garter
lets see if it can rocket and stay up for a while like a good girls' garterNews today in afr about the increase in value of mab property trusts US properties, even though centro's US properties have fallen in value...(whats going on here..?..somebody got ripped..)I hope this also means that centro's US assets will rise in value in the near future and they'll be able to sell them @ book value soon...
Just wondering if anyone in the forum knows what CNP's interest in Centro NP in the US is?
In the last report lodged by Centro NP, they wrote down asset by around another half a billion. Just wondering how this might impact on net asset backing for Centro.
The writedown was to land and properties owned by Centro NP which owns the New Plan acquisition.
If anyone has that information, pls let me know.
Tulasi
In the last report lodged by Centro NP, they wrote down asset by around another half a billion. Just wondering how this might impact on net asset backing for Centro.
The writedown was to land and properties owned by Centro NP which owns the New Plan acquisition.
If anyone has that information, pls let me know.
Tulasi
Please see below an extract from Centro NP's latest SEC filing:
Going Concern
There is substantial doubt about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern given that the Company’s liquidity is subject to, among other things, its ability to negotiate extensions of credit facilities. The Company’s inability to refinance the credit facilities would have a material adverse effect on the Company’s liquidity and financial condition. In addition, uncertainty also exists due to the refinancing issues currently experienced by the Company’s ultimate parent investors, Centro Properties Group and Centro Retail Group. If the outcomes of these negotiations are not favorable to Centro Properties Group and Centro Retail Group, it is uncertain as to the impact that this will have on the Company.
It is noted that Centro Properties Group and Centro Retail Group both recently filed reviewed financial statements for the six months ended December 31, 2007 with local Australian regulatory authorities whereby the auditor identified material uncertainty regarding their continuation as going concerns.
The Company’s management team continues to work closely with its counterparts of the Company’s ultimate parent investors (Centro Properties Limited (“CPL”) and CPT Manager Limited (“CPT”)) and the lenders of the Company, Super LLC, CPL and CPT to resolve the various liquidity issues.
Am currently trying to find the latest financial statements filed with ASX or ASIC.
Tulasi
Going Concern
There is substantial doubt about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern given that the Company’s liquidity is subject to, among other things, its ability to negotiate extensions of credit facilities. The Company’s inability to refinance the credit facilities would have a material adverse effect on the Company’s liquidity and financial condition. In addition, uncertainty also exists due to the refinancing issues currently experienced by the Company’s ultimate parent investors, Centro Properties Group and Centro Retail Group. If the outcomes of these negotiations are not favorable to Centro Properties Group and Centro Retail Group, it is uncertain as to the impact that this will have on the Company.
It is noted that Centro Properties Group and Centro Retail Group both recently filed reviewed financial statements for the six months ended December 31, 2007 with local Australian regulatory authorities whereby the auditor identified material uncertainty regarding their continuation as going concerns.
The Company’s management team continues to work closely with its counterparts of the Company’s ultimate parent investors (Centro Properties Limited (“CPL”) and CPT Manager Limited (“CPT”)) and the lenders of the Company, Super LLC, CPL and CPT to resolve the various liquidity issues.
Am currently trying to find the latest financial statements filed with ASX or ASIC.
Tulasi
There is nothing new about the 'uncertainty' factor in these latest reports. The refinancing issues are anything but certain in being resolved but there is a possibility they will be and then it will be a going concern into the future.
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hello centro investers...... What's going on with CNP and CER guys ??? Still how many days we need to keep waiting to SP rise ???? Atleast I cant wait.....
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US markets are on the down again, Oil prices are on the up again. CNP will continue its retreat of 1-2c a day whilst this happens. Still believe this will be in the .2's next week before any rise and when the rise comes it will be very limited, with traders selling off (at a nice profit) keeping the SP down. I do not expect a huge spike, traders have learnt from the previous months.
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Disagree with last comment as everyone is waiting for the end of May and the trading volumes support that. If the extra 100 mill etc all signed off will be a small boost but what will get it going again is good asset sales ie BV and if possible retain the management which is what they are good at as per the recently released figures plus this has not even been valued into the $1.31 valuation. Could be close to .90 in June but would depend mainly on who is buying
The dow have little affect on CNP. Everyone is waiting for a good ann to be out just before 30th May to make their decision. Most traders have made their profit by selling this from 50c to 35c.
For sure there will be a good announcement before 30 May. The guys at CNP have not been bunkered working long focussed hours with co-operation from bankers for nothing. They are an effective team now and will succeed at it.
Centro have had a good amount of time now to consider all the options open to them, in so far as the recap plan. I think that they are in a stronger position now then 4 months ago,and believe that if they were that desperate they would have sold many assets by now to pay down debt.The fact that they are picking and choosing what assets to sell and who they'll sell them to,tells me they're in a better position.This also makes me believe that they may have a back up plan(like merger or t/over deal in the wings).I don't believe this would occur this week though..moreover past may30...lets wait and see..I know i'll be holding them.
I too am expecting a good announcement. I think the 100 mln is a minor issue as the banks have already extended 6.6 bln worth of debt to December 15 and if newspaper reports are to be believed CNP have JP Morgan on their side. JP Morgan and HSBC are still substantial shareholders inthe company.
The more bigger issue is getting agreement among the various creditors on how proceeds from asset sales are to be used, refinancing or equity injection.
I also think the CEO is very keen to keep the company afloat and do what is in the best interest of shareholders as well as creditors because CNP employees themselves have a lot at stake in the company.
As to share price, I am not expecting share price to rise above 52 cents on any announcements that only includes information on 100 mln liquidity or agreement among creditors as the risk posed by litigation in my view will offset any positive sentiment. Significant increase in share price will only materialise if assets are sold close to book value while management rights are retained combined with some form of equity injection.
Good luck everyone.
Tulasi
The more bigger issue is getting agreement among the various creditors on how proceeds from asset sales are to be used, refinancing or equity injection.
I also think the CEO is very keen to keep the company afloat and do what is in the best interest of shareholders as well as creditors because CNP employees themselves have a lot at stake in the company.
As to share price, I am not expecting share price to rise above 52 cents on any announcements that only includes information on 100 mln liquidity or agreement among creditors as the risk posed by litigation in my view will offset any positive sentiment. Significant increase in share price will only materialise if assets are sold close to book value while management rights are retained combined with some form of equity injection.
Good luck everyone.
Tulasi
when the whole markets going down, the most "safe" stocks to buy is undervalued ones like CNP. We can recall the middle of March this year when I saw CNP is of those shares that can keep stable or even get gain in such a tough situation. If anyone notice the trades of CNP last week, it is not volitile anymore. That's really a good sign for this share. I saw big buy volume after 4:00 pm last Friday at around 1 million. Looks buys now prefer to get their accumulation quietly . After several huge surge, CNP is hard to hit below 30c anymore. But still, CNP holders need to wait a pretty long time before the SP recover to 60c or even 90c. Again, big reward is not easy to get, you'd better take account into the opportunity cost when you are holding CNP.
. After several huge surge, CNP is hard to hit below 30c anymore. But still, CNP holders need to wait a pretty long time before the SP recover to 60c or even 90c. Again, big reward is not easy to get, you'd better take account into the opportunity cost when you are holding CNP.Slow and steady will win the race. CNP are over their biggest hurdle now and I'm not expecting it to be too slow recovering from here on.
news today about a second class action against centro...though not good news,I think the market had expected it,with past speculation..(news)
Interesting to see westfields annoucement on distributions payout and company performance..they are looking at aquisitions..and its been speculated they might be interested in centro's assets.
Interesting to see westfields annoucement on distributions payout and company performance..they are looking at aquisitions..and its been speculated they might be interested in centro's assets.
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Its a bit early for a trading halt, did they halt trades when they announced that they were going to fight the last class action? Or is this the thumbs down/ up for May 30th?
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