AGO - Atlas Iron

[Superfly]

Yep... as a holder of MPJ ....makes watching AGO's rise much more enjoyable

 

[adobee]

Yep... as a holder of MPJ ....makes watching AGO's rise much more enjoyable

How much AGO does MPJ own ?? I am trying to find out, cant see any info in this regard on there website or AGOs ?

I know LRF has 18,428,851 shares x $3.70
= $68,186,748

 

[Superfly]

MPJ = 1,625,000 AGO ...as recorded in last Q report.

 

[Markcoinoz]

Hunter Hall became a substantial holder in AGO.

5.41% of the company. 14,118,296 shares.

They have been accumulating since the 7th August 2007.

Looking very promising.

Cheers markcoinoz

 

[imajica]

How much AGO does MPJ own ?? I am trying to find out, cant see any info in this regard on there website or AGOs ?

I know LRF has 18,428,851 shares x $3.70
= $68,186,748

LRF's stake is now worth $70,398,210

The fund has made tens of millions in profit over the last few weeks!

 

[doctorj]

How much AGO does MPJ own ?? I am trying to find out, cant see any info in this regard on there website or AGOs ?

MPJ doesn't own quite as much as LRF

MPJ owns 1,625,000 shares of AGO ($6.21m worth) - the trick is that MPJ's market cap is $12.8m and its net tangible assets (consistenting primarily of cash and other companies listed on ASX/TSX/AIM) is $21.72m.

All the numbers can be picked up from the latest quarterly. Valuations come with no guarantees and were last updated a few minutes ago

 

[adobee]

Okay well I have my fingers crossed AGO keeps going up and doesnt come back down as I am now a proud owner of AGO MPJ and LRF ..
The guys involved in the recent capital rasing but be very happy ! I wonder if any have anything to do with merril lynch ?

 

[chrissyoscar]

Okay well I have my fingers crossed AGO keeps going up and doesnt come back down as I am now a proud owner of AGO MPJ and LRF ..
The guys involved in the recent capital rasing but be very happy ! I wonder if any have anything to do with merril lynch ?

Me to, I got some on Thursday more on Friday took another dip on Monday and thought why not so I got a few more today.
All up I've averaged a price of $3.528 which isn't to bad i don't think.
I thought about getting some MPJ shares as well but decided not to, something about getting 160,000 odd shares for a $1000 outlay scares me.
Call me green but for now AGO is about as risky as I want to be.

 

[treefrog]

Me to, I got some on Thursday more on Friday took another dip on Monday and thought why not so I got a few more today.
All up I've averaged a price of $3.528 which isn't to bad i don't think.
I thought about getting some MPJ shares as well but decided not to, something about getting 160,000 odd shares for a $1000 outlay scares me.
Call me green but for now AGO is about as risky as I want to be.

you need to thing that through a bit more chriss - on that basis it means if AGO had a 100:1 split (but otherwise the same) and were 3.5 cents you wouldn't have invested because you would have had too many shares for you $1000??

 

[chrissyoscar]

you need to thing that through a bit more chriss - on that basis it means if AGO had a 100:1 split (but otherwise the same) and were 3.5 cents you wouldn't have invested because you would have had too many shares for you $1000??

Yes you're right and based on the current resource boom we're having and with all the stock MPJ has shares in it should and probably will start to move upwards and it'll probably do it very soon.
It's just that when you see a share price at .07 and you don't understand the market you tend to avoid it.
The good news is for those that do understand the market they get in early and make the money.
I might put a little on it and see..

 

[adobee]

Yes you're right and based on the current resource boom we're having and with all the stock MPJ has shares in it should and probably will start to move upwards and it'll probably do it very soon.
It's just that when you see a share price at .07 and you don't understand the market you tend to avoid it.
The good news is for those that do understand the market they get in early and make the money.
I might put a little on it and see..

I have to say I was a bit skepitcal of MPJ also.. I bought a small parcel.. but look at it as there is an opportunity for quick big gains or lossess more so than LRF or AGO.. I also noted that the other two have comsec margin loan options compared to MPJ which I expect means combank feels a bit more secure with the others also ..?

In regard to AGO I am a bit worried about the profit taking taking place.. a few sell orders stacking up now... I am hoping it can remain above $4 for now as I am going to keep holding long term, if it retraces I will get more.. I hope another institution jumps on and starts buying up a block..

Would most people be cashing out now expecting a retrace or staying firm ?

 

[adobee]

Down today with the rest of the market I hope it finds some support ..
Word on the grapevine and also in yesterdays Fin review is that UBS may be about to start coverage with a buy recommendation.. If this comes out could push a few more investors on the boat..

 

[chrissyoscar]

Down today with the rest of the market I hope it finds some support ..
Word on the grapevine and also in yesterdays Fin review is that UBS may be about to start coverage with a buy recommendation.. If this comes out could push a few more investors on the boat..

I have high hopes for this stock and decided to go in again on some price weakness today.
If the experts are right and Atlas starts shipping by late this year to early next year I think the price will move quickly.
I would imagine there are quite a few people looking very seriously at this stock.
It got a strong buy from Merrill Lynch which I believe caused the price to jump quickly and if UBS follow with a buy it'll be good news for us already in.

Found this on YouTube. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvzrV0JOmUo

 

[adobee]

This is pure speculation but I have heard talk that there would be interest in a FMG AGO merger / takeover.. as FMG looks to increase there resource base, do people think this possible ? I understand AGO does plan to use some of the FMG infastructure and have been in alot of contact at the North West Iron Ore Alliance ?

 

[tigerboi]

This is pure speculation but I have heard talk that there would be interest in a FMG AGO merger / takeover.. as FMG looks to increase there resource base, do people think this possible ? I understand AGO does plan to use some of the FMG infastructure and have been in alot of contact at the North West Iron Ore Alliance ?

Ive talked about AGO'S chances lately regarding rail capacity & the top 4-6 in that area coming together in some type of super meger as AGO,BRM,UMC,will have big problems with their rail access.FMG themselves will need BHP'S line to go to 55mt..how can the others hope to get in,BHP &RIO'S lines are all going to full capacity...they wont allow a conga line of io juniors blocking the line.

As for a FMG/AGO hook up..i dont think FMG has the cash,i know they dont.
its one thing to sign a mou for rail access but when its running 24/7 for their own IO..these hopefuls are going to have big problems..thats why i like a spec such as bmy...5 minutes from the port...tb

 

[tigerboi]

Re:ATLAS IRON COST TO TRANSPORT 1MT OF IO

Strange there hasnt been a word on here for a few weeks,i thought i would put my io transport estimates for AGO from the other thread...looking at the md of TTY speaking of buying the rolling stock he uses for about $12M,that may be the better option for AGO,reckon they wouldnt get knocked back for the use of the line if they fronted up with the own cars??

For a fraction of the total cost to go by road(shooting my own industry in the foot here!)they could buy their own for cheap $$$,plus pay it off by hauling for others...re:with BHP going to ramp up to 200mt+,AGO could possibly get in for their whack hauling for BHP...just a thought...tb




Been crunching the numbers on the pardoo dso that AGO plan to be running the 75k from mine to port,by getting the approx.fuel bill of the transport operator you can guesstimate the overall cost to AGO per 1mt of IO from the pardoo mine to the port,starting at the current $1.80 per litre of fuel.(keep in mind that the contract will be pegged to the fuel price)

The IO is run to the port by 150t gross quad roadtrains,net 100t per trip which is a total of 150kms,75kms at its full gross weight at near 150t.i reckon around 140 litres(sm junkie correct me if im wrong?) fuel per 150km trip,the quad side tippers dont always run back empty,there is equipment that goes back to the mine as well.

Atlas iron operation,1mt of iron ore from pardoo mine to pt headland
by quad side tipper roadtrains on a 150t permit,100t net per trip.

1,000t=10 trips,1500kms

10,000t=100 trips,15,000kms

100,000t=1,000 trips,150,000kms

1,000,000t=10,000 trips,1,500,000kms

140 litres x10,000 trips= 1,400,000 litres x $1.80= $2,520,000 fuel bill

now fuel should be 1/5th(20%) of the operators costs,bearing in mind the drivers up there are the best paid in the world not just australia as they have to be enticed with allowances for accommodation,isolation of the job,cost of living up there etc,so the operator has to keep his 2 biggest costs at below 45-50%(fuel & wages)

so $2.52m x 5 =$12.6m per 1mt,my first guess was around $11m but with fuel surging big time ive started at $1.80,but ill show the rest from say $1.50 upwards.

Estimates of total cost based on operators fuel usage/bill

140 litres x 10,000 trips= 1,400,000 x $2.00=$2,800,000($14.00m)

140 litres x 10,000 trips= 1,400,000 x $1.90=$2,660,000($13.30m)

140 litres x 10,000 trips= 1,400,000 x $1.80= $2,520,000($12.60m)

140 litres x 10,000 trips= 1,400,000 x $1.70=$2,380,000($11.90m)

140 litres x 10,000 trips= 1,400,000 x $1.60=$2,224,000($11.20m)

140 litres x 10,000 trips= 1,400,000 x $1.50=$2,100,000($10.50m)

You can see how the fuel price is going to hurt AGO big time,now they start in october i believe when more than likely diesel will be at $2.00,the estimates show that every 10c rise in fuel AGO will be up for $700,000 more or $70,000 for every cent it rises..

These estimates are for 1mt & i understand AGO are looking to get 3mt out in the first year...

so my ball park figure is $12.60 per tonne for each 1mt at the current fuel price.also depends how the contract is done,but it will contain the provision for rises in fuel,now at $12.6 per mt i havent included the 15% fuel levy,the final cost per mt could well be up to $16.00 per mt now times that by the 14mt they are aiming for..phew...how much are they getting per tonne for the io?...are they going to put this 14mt on the spot market or its already taken...

The cost of io transport for the midwest companies such as gbg & mmx is around the 20% mark,so i expect AGO to come in about 12-15%...

cfe & arh are about 4-8%,so you can see how your location has a big effect on costs...tb

 

[adobee]

AGO enters ASX200

This is good news we should see some large investment companies start to take interest if it can maintain its spot in the 200..

 

[frogen]

Ive talked about AGO'S chances lately regarding rail capacity & the top 4-6 in that area coming together in some type of super meger as AGO,BRM,UMC,will have big problems with their rail access.FMG themselves will need BHP'S line to go to 55mt..how can the others hope to get in,BHP &RIO'S lines are all going to full capacity...they wont allow a conga line of io juniors blocking the line.

As for a FMG/AGO hook up..i dont think FMG has the cash,i know they dont.
its one thing to sign a mou for rail access but when its running 24/7 for their own IO..these hopefuls are going to have big problems..thats why i like a spec such as bmy...5 minutes from the port...tb

Tigerboi,
I think you will find that BMY's IO tenements are actually 130km from the port, not 5 mins. They are located further east from the Pardoo tenement of AGO. I agree though that the biggest hurdle for these juniors is the transport to port. They will all face increasing costs. And BHPBIO will do nothing to help these small companies with rail access, trust me on that ....
I would think FMG will have rail acces available but only as they ramp up in the near term. It would be a different story in a few years time when they are moving 80 million tons or so one would think

 

[adobee]

I think once FMG ramp up production and there income streams they will start looking at takeovers and folding in other miners to further increase their resource.. Forrest is a driven guy and he is not going to stop and relax, he also isnt going to sit back and be content with his position, I can see big expansions on the cards.. This is my opinion.. but in twelve months you heard it here first ..

Inway good on AGO.. I hope the entry into ASX200 pushes some more brokers reports out 7 revisions.. UBS Intersuisse.. will have to wait and see..

 

[tigerboi]

Tigerboi,
I think you will find that BMY's IO tenements are actually 130km from the port, not 5 mins. They are located further east from the Pardoo tenement of AGO. I agree though that the biggest hurdle for these juniors is the transport to port. They will all face increasing costs. And BHPBIO will do nothing to help these small companies with rail access, trust me on that ....
I would think FMG will have rail acces available but only as they ramp up in the near term. It would be a different story in a few years time when they are moving 80 million tons or so one would think

Hey mate i know where brumbys tenements are....5 mins = the conveyor they are going to use to get their product to their "port"...that comes from bmy management...tb

you obviously havent seen the maps ive posted on the brumby thread,go see...