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Re: STB - South Boulder Mines
With momentum definately building in STB over the last few days on the back of a rampant agricultural sector or even on the back of speculation about another phosphate/potash project to be announced, the weakness in the US markets overnight might offer the perfect chance for those wanting to take a stake in STB.
With momentum definately building in STB over the last few days on the back of a rampant agricultural sector or even on the back of speculation about another phosphate/potash project to be announced, the weakness in the US markets overnight might offer the perfect chance for those wanting to take a stake in STB.
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Re: STB - South Boulder Mines
JTB the perspective you provide is always good, when investing its easy to get carried away however one should always stop and think, however yes I am feeling your pain on MAK, but then I too let so many MAKO go at 20c so so many
Mick its had to value a company on leases alone however STB has 44m shares +20m unlisted 25c options
So at 25c Mkt cap = 64mx25c = $16m
However the company has $1m cash + $2m shares + $5m from the option exercise = $8m
Added to this is the fact the company has a bunch of other projects ie Duketon Nickel JV IGO + Gold, Thachers Soak U etc etc conservative value say $2m
So Total Asset Value = $10m
Thus the current EV being attributed to Cardabia and Lake Disappointment East = $6m
As we do not know what lies at Lake Disappointment East its very very hard to estimate what a fair value for the project is, however the fact it is next door to RWD's huge multi BILLION tonne Potash Deposit must be taken into account
Similarly it is hard to attribute a value to Cardabia at this stage, given the very large size and very promissing historic grades drilling etc etc I'd say Cardabia could turn out to be a monster of a project but I think we'll have to wait for the company to release some estimates on size etc etc
either way at 25c I reckon theres alot of upside once the projects are frimed up, both Lake Disappointment and Cardabia are company making projects which would warrant a mkt cap 10x current levels at least once proven
JTB the perspective you provide is always good, when investing its easy to get carried away however one should always stop and think, however yes I am feeling your pain on MAK, but then I too let so many MAKO go at 20c so so many
Mick its had to value a company on leases alone however STB has 44m shares +20m unlisted 25c options
So at 25c Mkt cap = 64mx25c = $16m
However the company has $1m cash + $2m shares + $5m from the option exercise = $8m
Added to this is the fact the company has a bunch of other projects ie Duketon Nickel JV IGO + Gold, Thachers Soak U etc etc conservative value say $2m
So Total Asset Value = $10m
Thus the current EV being attributed to Cardabia and Lake Disappointment East = $6m
As we do not know what lies at Lake Disappointment East its very very hard to estimate what a fair value for the project is, however the fact it is next door to RWD's huge multi BILLION tonne Potash Deposit must be taken into account
Similarly it is hard to attribute a value to Cardabia at this stage, given the very large size and very promissing historic grades drilling etc etc I'd say Cardabia could turn out to be a monster of a project but I think we'll have to wait for the company to release some estimates on size etc etc
either way at 25c I reckon theres alot of upside once the projects are frimed up, both Lake Disappointment and Cardabia are company making projects which would warrant a mkt cap 10x current levels at least once proven
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Re: STB - South Boulder Mines
I should add that over the last few days MNM (Mantle Mining) has put on over 100% purely based on (from what I gather) the mkt realisation of how close its Phospahte project is to MAK's no work, no sampleys surveys or rock chips, nothing just some dirk near MAK, based on this what willl the mkt value Lake Disappointment East is anyones guess but if MNM is anything to go by sheeshhhh
I'm also gonna try and get a target size in my head if for no other reason at Cardabia, then I can throw around some random numbers
I should add that over the last few days MNM (Mantle Mining) has put on over 100% purely based on (from what I gather) the mkt realisation of how close its Phospahte project is to MAK's no work, no sampleys surveys or rock chips, nothing just some dirk near MAK, based on this what willl the mkt value Lake Disappointment East is anyones guess but if MNM is anything to go by sheeshhhh
I'm also gonna try and get a target size in my head if for no other reason at Cardabia, then I can throw around some random numbers
Re: STB - South Boulder Mines
Thanks YT, very balanced breakdown, one thing we both agree on is the massive potential upside to this little gem.
And after discussions with the company last week, where they were very tight lipped about new projects, and sugested that I keep an eye out for upcoming announcements. We are not far away from more news out of the phosphate/potash divisions.
Thanks YT, very balanced breakdown, one thing we both agree on is the massive potential upside to this little gem.
And after discussions with the company last week, where they were very tight lipped about new projects, and sugested that I keep an eye out for upcoming announcements. We are not far away from more news out of the phosphate/potash divisions.
Re: STB - South Boulder Mines
GDAY Mick 2006
Long time no hear !
Just wondering if you can give us all, a summary of your other recommendations over the last few months, and where they are now since your last posts on them?
MDX, FAR, EXM, CDS, JMS, and of course the famous VRE
would be much appreciated.
GDAY Mick 2006
Long time no hear !
Just wondering if you can give us all, a summary of your other recommendations over the last few months, and where they are now since your last posts on them?
MDX, FAR, EXM, CDS, JMS, and of course the famous VRE
would be much appreciated.
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Re: STB - South Boulder Mines
Adam - no one makes 'recommendations' on an internet forum. You need a licence to do that. God has given us all brains to have a think about things before jumping off a cliff. These are speccys - do not go all in.
Wow good to see all the interest in STB. As I said, 4 projects in sectors with good fundamentals re commodity prices (potash, phosphate, gold, nickel), a portfolio of 5 shares (see my post in Nov'07 for a breakdown), some dollars in the bank. A good speccy explorer. That's why I've been watching it progress for 9 months or so and why I hopped in when they announced phosphate/potash. Correct me if I am wrong, but phosphate/potash deposits are scarce and many are becoming economic now that prices have moved from $50 per tonne to $200 per tonne. Lets see what happens.
This one was pumped and dumped in February but so was MAK before it took off. Believe me - I had my finger near the trigger at MAK 20 cps in August and did not buy. Boo hoo.
Good luck. It ticks all the boxes for exciting speccy. Lets see if mgt can give us some economic projects.
GDAY Mick 2006
Long time no hear !
Just wondering if you can give us all, a summary of your other recommendations over the last few months, and where they are now since your last posts on them?
MDX, FAR, EXM, CDS, JMS, and of course the famous VRE
would be much appreciated.
Adam - no one makes 'recommendations' on an internet forum. You need a licence to do that. God has given us all brains to have a think about things before jumping off a cliff. These are speccys - do not go all in.
Wow good to see all the interest in STB. As I said, 4 projects in sectors with good fundamentals re commodity prices (potash, phosphate, gold, nickel), a portfolio of 5 shares (see my post in Nov'07 for a breakdown), some dollars in the bank. A good speccy explorer. That's why I've been watching it progress for 9 months or so and why I hopped in when they announced phosphate/potash. Correct me if I am wrong, but phosphate/potash deposits are scarce and many are becoming economic now that prices have moved from $50 per tonne to $200 per tonne. Lets see what happens.
This one was pumped and dumped in February but so was MAK before it took off. Believe me - I had my finger near the trigger at MAK 20 cps in August and did not buy. Boo hoo.
Good luck. It ticks all the boxes for exciting speccy. Lets see if mgt can give us some economic projects.
Re: STB - South Boulder Mines
Sorry bushman ,please substitute the word, recomendations, for hot stocks
My statement still stands!
Please people, do your own research (ive been caught out before)
ps i havnt done any research on STB at all so not commenting directly on STB
Sorry bushman ,please substitute the word, recomendations, for hot stocks
My statement still stands!
Please people, do your own research (ive been caught out before)
ps i havnt done any research on STB at all so not commenting directly on STB
prawn_86
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Re: STB - South Boulder Mines
Adam A,
Why dont you contribute some research for people to evaluate then?
Its all well and good to sit back and look at what goes wrong, but there are a lot of posters who put valuable time and effort into thorough research. They are then kind enough to post this research. No one is saying what people should do with their cash.
Perhaps you should contribute to some of the threads of some stocks you own...
Thanks
Prawn
Adam A,
Why dont you contribute some research for people to evaluate then?
Its all well and good to sit back and look at what goes wrong, but there are a lot of posters who put valuable time and effort into thorough research. They are then kind enough to post this research. No one is saying what people should do with their cash.
Perhaps you should contribute to some of the threads of some stocks you own...
Thanks
Prawn
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Re: STB - South Boulder Mines
Adam A there is risk with investing, some investments pay off other don't, most instance they do rise much higher than the intial price of entry the question is whether to lock in some profits so as to reduce the possibilty of a loss,
ie JMS ran from 7c- 45c and now its back to 18c ish, but it did run, likewise I went on and on about MDX at 10c and it eventually ran up to 40c
Every once in awhile you get a MAK or a YML/BRM that goes from 16c - $2.50+
If you don't keep searching you'll never find them,
While I have said over and over STB is spec, if the company comes out with a target size for Cardabia or Lake Disappointment East and its suffciently large enough then watch out,
ie if they come out with 1Billion Tonnes of Potash at Lake Disappointment or 1 Billion Tonnes of Phosphate at Cardabia then the current $6m being attributed to these projects will look unbelievably small indeed!
Adam A there is risk with investing, some investments pay off other don't, most instance they do rise much higher than the intial price of entry the question is whether to lock in some profits so as to reduce the possibilty of a loss,
ie JMS ran from 7c- 45c and now its back to 18c ish, but it did run, likewise I went on and on about MDX at 10c and it eventually ran up to 40c
Every once in awhile you get a MAK or a YML/BRM that goes from 16c - $2.50+
If you don't keep searching you'll never find them,
While I have said over and over STB is spec, if the company comes out with a target size for Cardabia or Lake Disappointment East and its suffciently large enough then watch out,
ie if they come out with 1Billion Tonnes of Potash at Lake Disappointment or 1 Billion Tonnes of Phosphate at Cardabia then the current $6m being attributed to these projects will look unbelievably small indeed!
Re: STB - South Boulder Mines
Adam A, not sure what your problem is, but I have never hided the fact that I'm a momentum trader, which means taking profits when the momentum stalls, each one of those companies, I have made substantial profits from.
I'm sorry if you got caught holding any of the above companies but each and every one of them went north in the immediate period after I mentioned them on this forum, its not my fault if you don't have a clear trading stratergy.
If you must know the reason I stopped posting was I felt terrible about the VRE situation, as I had seen the signs of the shareprice stalling and cashed out, but no one could have forecast the lies coming out of that company.
If it wasn't for a few loyal friends on ASF, I would not have started posting again, but as long as there are people around like you, that obviously lack the dillegence to research for themselves, I guess I'll just go back to doing what I do best and trade in silence.
For all loyal friends on ASF I will keep in touch via PM.
Adam A, not sure what your problem is, but I have never hided the fact that I'm a momentum trader, which means taking profits when the momentum stalls, each one of those companies, I have made substantial profits from.
I'm sorry if you got caught holding any of the above companies but each and every one of them went north in the immediate period after I mentioned them on this forum, its not my fault if you don't have a clear trading stratergy.
If you must know the reason I stopped posting was I felt terrible about the VRE situation, as I had seen the signs of the shareprice stalling and cashed out, but no one could have forecast the lies coming out of that company.
If it wasn't for a few loyal friends on ASF, I would not have started posting again, but as long as there are people around like you, that obviously lack the dillegence to research for themselves, I guess I'll just go back to doing what I do best and trade in silence.
For all loyal friends on ASF I will keep in touch via PM.
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Re: STB - South Boulder Mines
STB is currently up, tomorrow it may continue to go up, go sideways or head down, I'm 100% sure it will do on of those 3, so thats my call up down or sideways:
Seriously though, regardless of what tomorrow brings, its the fundamentals I look at,
Right now STB's fundamentals on its Potash and Phosphate are scare, however as the company did release a map/image on Cardabia it makes life easier to do some guestimations on
According to STB's release on the 5th of March http://www.southbouldermines.com.au...cements/080305 cardabia phosphate project.pdf the area drilled was 3km's by 7km's giving an area of 21km's sqd,
However from the image its clear mineralisation was encountered over a much much larger area (see attached image), from MAK's presentation (pic attached) 1km sqd contains 12.5Mt's of Phospahte and MAK's Phospahte was avg 15%
so 12.5Mt's / 15% = 83M'ts
ie 1km sqd should contain 83Mt's of ore avging 15% Phospahte = 12.5Mt's of Phosphate
Now although STB have stated a grid area of 21km's sqd, its is obvious the area is 10x-20x this, but to be extremely conservative I am going to take 1/3rd of STB's grid area ie 7kms sqd
7kms sqd should contain 581Mt's of Ore ( 7 x 83Mt's) lets say 500Mt's and using a low avg grade of 15% (comparable to MAK's) we would get 75Mt's of contained Phospahte,
MAK's deposit is 2B t's at 15% Phospahte with a high grade core, arguably STB might be able to firm up 500M'ts @ 15% also with a high grade core
MAK currently enjoys a mkt cap of $250m the bulk of which is attributable to its 2Bt Wonarah project
If STB were able to firm up 500Mt's @ 15% Phosphate arguably it should enjoy a mkt cap 1/4 that of MAK's = $62.5m or roughly $1 share
NOW PLEASE NOTE THESE ARE HYPOTHETICAL FIGURES,
I have used them for illustrative purposes only to show the potnetial upside in STB should the comonay firm up a resource,
The starting point for me will be for the company to release an estimate
STB is currently up, tomorrow it may continue to go up, go sideways or head down, I'm 100% sure it will do on of those 3, so thats my call up down or sideways
:Seriously though, regardless of what tomorrow brings, its the fundamentals I look at,
Right now STB's fundamentals on its Potash and Phosphate are scare, however as the company did release a map/image on Cardabia it makes life easier to do some guestimations on
According to STB's release on the 5th of March http://www.southbouldermines.com.au...cements/080305 cardabia phosphate project.pdf the area drilled was 3km's by 7km's giving an area of 21km's sqd,
However from the image its clear mineralisation was encountered over a much much larger area (see attached image), from MAK's presentation (pic attached) 1km sqd contains 12.5Mt's of Phospahte and MAK's Phospahte was avg 15%
so 12.5Mt's / 15% = 83M'ts
ie 1km sqd should contain 83Mt's of ore avging 15% Phospahte = 12.5Mt's of Phosphate
Now although STB have stated a grid area of 21km's sqd, its is obvious the area is 10x-20x this, but to be extremely conservative I am going to take 1/3rd of STB's grid area ie 7kms sqd
7kms sqd should contain 581Mt's of Ore ( 7 x 83Mt's) lets say 500Mt's and using a low avg grade of 15% (comparable to MAK's) we would get 75Mt's of contained Phospahte,
MAK's deposit is 2B t's at 15% Phospahte with a high grade core, arguably STB might be able to firm up 500M'ts @ 15% also with a high grade core
MAK currently enjoys a mkt cap of $250m the bulk of which is attributable to its 2Bt Wonarah project
If STB were able to firm up 500Mt's @ 15% Phosphate arguably it should enjoy a mkt cap 1/4 that of MAK's = $62.5m or roughly $1 share
NOW PLEASE NOTE THESE ARE HYPOTHETICAL FIGURES,
I have used them for illustrative purposes only to show the potnetial upside in STB should the comonay firm up a resource,
The starting point for me will be for the company to release an estimate
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Re: STB - South Boulder Mines
Mick - your research has always been thorough and top notch and I hope you stick around the ASF. You spot trends early and back it up with excellent research. It will be a poorer forum without you. VRE was a bona fide case of mgt misrepresentation IMO. What can you do in that situation? We all rely on publicly released info to understand company fundamentals. All the others will have their day in the sun again. Not sure why people do not understand that speccy's are illiquid and risky? They shoot up and down in the short term and you need to have a plan - if you go long, go very long; if you go short, jump off when the volume drops as all the momentum traders will cash in. Simple.
Anyway this probably belongs on another forum...
Mick - your research has always been thorough and top notch and I hope you stick around the ASF. You spot trends early and back it up with excellent research. It will be a poorer forum without you. VRE was a bona fide case of mgt misrepresentation IMO. What can you do in that situation? We all rely on publicly released info to understand company fundamentals. All the others will have their day in the sun again. Not sure why people do not understand that speccy's are illiquid and risky? They shoot up and down in the short term and you need to have a plan - if you go long, go very long; if you go short, jump off when the volume drops as all the momentum traders will cash in. Simple.
Anyway this probably belongs on another forum...
Re: STB - South Boulder Mines
Hmm the upside does look good YT, I guess its just a matter of timing your entry right. I think your right once the company says how large the Cardi project is the market will wake to it and it may be too late to get on board then who knows.
With regards to the above discussion, everyone has made at least one bad call. Forgive, forget, move on and grow up
Hmm the upside does look good YT, I guess its just a matter of timing your entry right. I think your right once the company says how large the Cardi project is the market will wake to it and it may be too late to get on board then who knows.
With regards to the above discussion, everyone has made at least one bad call. Forgive, forget, move on and grow up
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Re: STB - South Boulder Mines
Hey Gekko
Yeah the thing is with these spec stocks that offer many multiples of upside, an entry difference of 2c-3c here or there in the long term should they pull the project off doesn't really make a difference
ie whether you bought YML at 16c or 18c wouldn't really matter now, similarlay MAK at 16c or 20c
But thats just my view on it, I don't really trade stocks, I buy into fundamentally undervalued stocks at a level I'm comfortable with, I then pick a price at which point I will take some profits and then I try and free carry or bottom draw the remaining core parcel
yesterday 24c seemed expensive, today it seems cheap, but thats hindsight for you
Hey Gekko
Yeah the thing is with these spec stocks that offer many multiples of upside, an entry difference of 2c-3c here or there in the long term should they pull the project off doesn't really make a difference
ie whether you bought YML at 16c or 18c wouldn't really matter now, similarlay MAK at 16c or 20c
But thats just my view on it, I don't really trade stocks, I buy into fundamentally undervalued stocks at a level I'm comfortable with, I then pick a price at which point I will take some profits and then I try and free carry or bottom draw the remaining core parcel
yesterday 24c seemed expensive, today it seems cheap, but thats hindsight for you
Re: STB - South Boulder Mines
I missed the morning dip due to work, and placed my order later hoping that it would dip again, I was hopeful when it was 25.5. Closed at 28c.... Now I see how it pans out tomorrow
yesterday 24c seemed expensive, today it seems cheap, but thats hindsight for you
I missed the morning dip due to work, and placed my order later hoping that it would dip again, I was hopeful when it was 25.5. Closed at 28c.... Now I see how it pans out tomorrow
prawn_86
Mod: Call me Dendrobranchiata
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Re: STB - South Boulder Mines
YT,
Those hypothetical figures you have put together are obviously only for Cardabia.
One also has to remember/acknowledge that the also have a failry advanced gold project plus uranium and nickel JVs in which they do not need to spend exploration $$.
Plus Lake Disappointment East a Potash deposit.... Lots of potential, will be intersting to see if they can get a focus and pull something off
YT,
Those hypothetical figures you have put together are obviously only for Cardabia.
One also has to remember/acknowledge that the also have a failry advanced gold project plus uranium and nickel JVs in which they do not need to spend exploration $$.
Plus Lake Disappointment East a Potash deposit.... Lots of potential, will be intersting to see if they can get a focus and pull something off
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Re: STB - South Boulder Mines
Prawn I sorta tried to get some ruff figures going so as to value a hypothetical sized deposit at Cardabia based on MAK's current EV,
And yes I know, a bunch of other projects, such as the IGO Duketon Nickel JV where STB is free carried, but to be honest its the Poo I'm here for,
Also I'm no chartist but todays close kinda looks like a breakout to me, am I right or have I drawn the lines in wrong ?
Prawn I sorta tried to get some ruff figures going so as to value a hypothetical sized deposit at Cardabia based on MAK's current EV,
And yes I know, a bunch of other projects, such as the IGO Duketon Nickel JV where STB is free carried, but to be honest its the Poo I'm here for,
Also I'm no chartist but todays close kinda looks like a breakout to me, am I right or have I drawn the lines in wrong ?
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Re: STB - South Boulder Mines
Looks like some great spec appeal here. needs to get some anns out in regard to their 2 poo deposits to make the market think they are progressing them and not just sitting on their behinds doin zip.
Poo is definately flavour of the month!
Approaching very long term breakout point I feel.
Looks like some great spec appeal here. needs to get some anns out in regard to their 2 poo deposits to make the market think they are progressing them and not just sitting on their behinds doin zip.
Poo is definately flavour of the month!
Approaching very long term breakout point I feel.
