PDN - Paladin Energy
- Thread starter tech/a
- Start date
- Joined
- 1 May 2006
- Posts
- 561
- Reactions
- 0
Re: PDN - Paladin Resources
Picked this up elsewhere"Trade Tech reported Uranium One have downgraded their production forecasts for 2008/2009. This has lead to jump in other Uranium suppliers. This news may be a few days old but maybe the impact is kicking on.
Their trouble is progress in South Africa and the power outages there"
Picked this up elsewhere"Trade Tech reported Uranium One have downgraded their production forecasts for 2008/2009. This has lead to jump in other Uranium suppliers. This news may be a few days old but maybe the impact is kicking on.
Their trouble is progress in South Africa and the power outages there"
- Joined
- 8 September 2007
- Posts
- 54
- Reactions
- 0
Re: PDN - Paladin Resources
Over the last 3 days Paladin has been hammered again. Does anyone know why this is?
As of yesterday it was below my average price of 5.77
Over the last 3 days Paladin has been hammered again. Does anyone know why this is?
As of yesterday it was below my average price of 5.77
- Joined
- 4 February 2006
- Posts
- 564
- Reactions
- 0
Re: PDN - Paladin Resources
watch this one today - may break strong support line of 540 - then its down to next level of 420 again
watch this one today - may break strong support line of 540 - then its down to next level of 420 again
- Joined
- 30 March 2006
- Posts
- 285
- Reactions
- 0
Re: PDN - Paladin Resources
Theres a good read on the MTN forum right now where someones posted a good article about greenies possibly changing the way they look at U.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=278574&postcount=1191
Theres a good read on the MTN forum right now where someones posted a good article about greenies possibly changing the way they look at U.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=278574&postcount=1191
Re: PDN - Paladin Resources
PDN at the moment is quite vulnerable to be a target....to defend itself, PDN may be looking at a smaller company to take over
The question is which one?
The company must present good synergy to justify the premium PDN will be paying.
Similar to Summit (SMM) takeover, I believe Energy Metals (EME) asset will be very appealing for PDN
1. The Birqli tenement is world class and PDN already own minority ownership...so to take 51% control would not be hard
2. EME's Birqli is a smaller tenement than SMM's Mt. Isa....PDN can easily swallow it without much borrowing/ raising capital
3. Uranium price in general most likely will go up so it makes the purchase very profitable in the future, especially at current level.
Any opinion?
PDN at the moment is quite vulnerable to be a target....to defend itself, PDN may be looking at a smaller company to take over
The question is which one?
The company must present good synergy to justify the premium PDN will be paying.
Similar to Summit (SMM) takeover, I believe Energy Metals (EME) asset will be very appealing for PDN
1. The Birqli tenement is world class and PDN already own minority ownership...so to take 51% control would not be hard
2. EME's Birqli is a smaller tenement than SMM's Mt. Isa....PDN can easily swallow it without much borrowing/ raising capital
3. Uranium price in general most likely will go up so it makes the purchase very profitable in the future, especially at current level.
Any opinion?
Re: PDN - Paladin Resources
What's caused PDN to drop so much ?
- it is a producer with proven results
- its projected to reach 10 million pounds per annum in a few years
- at $50 proft per pound that would equate to $500 million profit.
These are not pie in the sky numbers from an explorer they could even be exceeded. And there production is likely to grow further from there
Isn't it Market Cap at $2.8 billion cheap ??
My guess is we will underestimate the number of reactors being built by 2020 which will add to the rapid growth in demand.
__
PETEAI
What's caused PDN to drop so much ?
- it is a producer with proven results
- its projected to reach 10 million pounds per annum in a few years
- at $50 proft per pound that would equate to $500 million profit.
These are not pie in the sky numbers from an explorer they could even be exceeded. And there production is likely to grow further from there
Isn't it Market Cap at $2.8 billion cheap ??
My guess is we will underestimate the number of reactors being built by 2020 which will add to the rapid growth in demand.
__
PETEAI
- Joined
- 4 February 2006
- Posts
- 564
- Reactions
- 0
Re: PDN - Paladin Resources
10c divvy on a $4 share is returning 2.5%
10c on the 602mil shares is $60.2 mil to the shareholders pa so would need what - all of your $500m profit I would suggest so $4 seems about right for this sort of return "in a few years" don't you think??
10c divvy on a $4 share is returning 2.5%
10c on the 602mil shares is $60.2 mil to the shareholders pa so would need what - all of your $500m profit I would suggest so $4 seems about right for this sort of return "in a few years" don't you think??
- Joined
- 22 July 2006
- Posts
- 852
- Reactions
- 1
Re: PDN - Paladin Resources
Treefrog
I'm not sure that a dividend valuation model is very suitable for Paladin mate....
Dividend price models are traditionally used for more stable or mature growth companies. Paladin clearly is a growth company, who is likely to withhold dividend receipts because it can re-invest its funds at a much high rate of return than its cost of capital. Your analogy is like comparing Telstra to say BHP on the basis of their dividend - on paper, your maths would have had Telstra up on BHP 3 years ago - we all know who has performed better!
Petai, fan of the Uranium stocks I see. The simple fact with Paladin is that we are just not quite certain how quickly they can get Langer up to 10 Mil, currently it's sitting at 2.6, 3.7 by next year and perhaps six the year after. The problem with the Paladin equation is that there are so many variables here - how fast can they get up to 10 mil, what is the likely capital cost incurred to get them there, what is the U price they will end up receiving, will there be large Opex increases for them (probably the biggest issue for the mining industry in general, most estimates I see going around at the moment seem to suggest Opex inflation is huge, particularly in such a specialised industry like the U sector which requires knowledgeable staff that are hard to come by)... Hence why I haven't bothered to attempt a DCF here.....
This leads me to think that Paladin is still and will be for some time a stock driven by momentum, rather than fundamentals. And momentum wise, this stock has been in a downtrend for some 1.3 years, have a look at my posts back when PDN was at 9 and 7 bucks. However, just below 4 appears now to be very strong support and therefore perhaps a consolidation/accumulation will come shortly. What I will say is that with the development pipeline they have, the market capitalisation they currently command is very conservative (i.e. seems to factor in only Langer and a tiny bit of upside). So, it is attractive from a fundamental view point. But as always, it is best to wait for the technical view to align with the fundamentals, unless you are extremely patient and are confident of your fundamental price estimate.
Cheers
Treefrog
I'm not sure that a dividend valuation model is very suitable for Paladin mate....
Dividend price models are traditionally used for more stable or mature growth companies. Paladin clearly is a growth company, who is likely to withhold dividend receipts because it can re-invest its funds at a much high rate of return than its cost of capital. Your analogy is like comparing Telstra to say BHP on the basis of their dividend - on paper, your maths would have had Telstra up on BHP 3 years ago - we all know who has performed better!
Petai, fan of the Uranium stocks I see. The simple fact with Paladin is that we are just not quite certain how quickly they can get Langer up to 10 Mil, currently it's sitting at 2.6, 3.7 by next year and perhaps six the year after. The problem with the Paladin equation is that there are so many variables here - how fast can they get up to 10 mil, what is the likely capital cost incurred to get them there, what is the U price they will end up receiving, will there be large Opex increases for them (probably the biggest issue for the mining industry in general, most estimates I see going around at the moment seem to suggest Opex inflation is huge, particularly in such a specialised industry like the U sector which requires knowledgeable staff that are hard to come by)... Hence why I haven't bothered to attempt a DCF here.....
This leads me to think that Paladin is still and will be for some time a stock driven by momentum, rather than fundamentals. And momentum wise, this stock has been in a downtrend for some 1.3 years, have a look at my posts back when PDN was at 9 and 7 bucks. However, just below 4 appears now to be very strong support and therefore perhaps a consolidation/accumulation will come shortly. What I will say is that with the development pipeline they have, the market capitalisation they currently command is very conservative (i.e. seems to factor in only Langer and a tiny bit of upside). So, it is attractive from a fundamental view point. But as always, it is best to wait for the technical view to align with the fundamentals, unless you are extremely patient and are confident of your fundamental price estimate.
Cheers
- Joined
- 4 February 2006
- Posts
- 564
- Reactions
- 0
Re: PDN - Paladin Resources
agree reece - was citing only to point out that growth stocks tend to come back to reality in bad times and PDN seems to be doing this - not a good idea to argue with the market for mine
NWS also a growth stock
agree reece - was citing only to point out that growth stocks tend to come back to reality in bad times and PDN seems to be doing this - not a good idea to argue with the market for mine
NWS also a growth stock
Attachments
Re: PDN - Paladin Resources
Reece & Treefrog,
Yes
I have to admit I have a soft spot for Uranium. I guess because I have research the industry, I am following that basic principle - Invest in what you understand.
I have some financial investments I made recently when the PE went below 10 However I feel there are more unknowns there for me, what the sub-prime can do from here - who knows ??
PDN has a lot of projects in the pipeline and including expanding Langer Heinrich to 6mil pound. I bought it when it came off the low 4s. If you compare the situation when PDN was above 10, PDN has the experience of bringing Langer Heinrich up to 2.6 so we can have higher expenctation of PDN delivering.
I agree that OPEX is an issue but
In summary, no company is a no risk investment. On balance PDN should start delivering bigger & bigger profits at which point the current SP $4.32 will look cheap.
I agree with you REECE in the short term moment could even drive PDN below $4. I would love to see a $3 in front of the SP, at which point I will be in there buying
Reece & Treefrog,
Yes
I have to admit I have a soft spot for Uranium. I guess because I have research the industry, I am following that basic principle - Invest in what you understand.I have some financial investments I made recently when the PE went below 10 However I feel there are more unknowns there for me, what the sub-prime can do from here - who knows ??
PDN has a lot of projects in the pipeline and including expanding Langer Heinrich to 6mil pound. I bought it when it came off the low 4s. If you compare the situation when PDN was above 10, PDN has the experience of bringing Langer Heinrich up to 2.6 so we can have higher expenctation of PDN delivering.
I agree that OPEX is an issue but
- they do not have tight margins
- U is a very small part of reactor running costs & expensive to stop
- Financing costs for PDN should be lower for PDN compared to its competitors now it has delivered
- If Opex becomes an industry wide issue the industry would probably get higher prices for U -given the state of the market
In summary, no company is a no risk investment. On balance PDN should start delivering bigger & bigger profits at which point the current SP $4.32 will look cheap.
I agree with you REECE in the short term moment could even drive PDN below $4. I would love to see a $3 in front of the SP, at which point I will be in there buying
- Joined
- 26 October 2006
- Posts
- 327
- Reactions
- 0
Re: PDN - Paladin Resources
Herein may lie one possible answer: flow-on effect from the Lift debacle:
Dual listed uranium miner Paladin Energy believes a surge in the trading of its shares may be due to speculation surrounding Lift Capital Partners Pty Ltd being put into administration.
McGrathNicol was appointed as administrator of Lift Capital, a privately owned margin loan specialist, on Thursday.
This prompted financial backer Merrill Lynch to appropriate shares held by Lift, including Paladin shares.
Two Paladin directors, Rick Crabb and Gillian Swaby, launched legal action against Merrill Lynch and Lift on Friday, seeking to prevent Merrill Lynch from liquidating the shares.
A hearing of the matter in the Federal Court in Perth today was held over until Wednesday.
Full text: http://business.theage.com.au/paladin-energy-shares-hurt-by-lift-jam/20080414-260d.html
Herein may lie one possible answer: flow-on effect from the Lift debacle:
Dual listed uranium miner Paladin Energy believes a surge in the trading of its shares may be due to speculation surrounding Lift Capital Partners Pty Ltd being put into administration.
McGrathNicol was appointed as administrator of Lift Capital, a privately owned margin loan specialist, on Thursday.
This prompted financial backer Merrill Lynch to appropriate shares held by Lift, including Paladin shares.
Two Paladin directors, Rick Crabb and Gillian Swaby, launched legal action against Merrill Lynch and Lift on Friday, seeking to prevent Merrill Lynch from liquidating the shares.
A hearing of the matter in the Federal Court in Perth today was held over until Wednesday.
Full text: http://business.theage.com.au/paladin-energy-shares-hurt-by-lift-jam/20080414-260d.html
- Joined
- 4 February 2006
- Posts
- 564
- Reactions
- 0
Re: PDN - Paladin Resources
"JOHANNESBURG (Business Day) -- Global warming, rapid economic growth in emerging economies such as India and China and delayed investment worldwide in new generating capacity, have resulted in a great number of new nuclear power stations being planned around the world.
Asian countries are leading the way and about 30 nuclear reactors are expected to be built in China by 2020, while Japan, India and Pakistan each have several more reactors on their drawing boards.
The rush to build nuclear plants has contributed to the substantially higher price of uranium over the past three years. So it is no surprise that construction companies are warning that nuclear power plant programmes may be delayed by equipment supply constraints.
The production of nuclear power plants may be stalled because of a backlog at Japan Steel Works. The company makes four a year. A shift to double capacity will not be enough to meet demand.
In Finland, the construction of a new technology reactor has been delayed for two years. The nuclear industry globally has a history of cost and time overruns. It is something that Eskom is going to have to manage very carefully indeed.
Investors in uranium explorers and miners will also be thinking twice about the risk this delayed consumption poses to the cheery projections of massive near-term demand increases."
"JOHANNESBURG (Business Day) -- Global warming, rapid economic growth in emerging economies such as India and China and delayed investment worldwide in new generating capacity, have resulted in a great number of new nuclear power stations being planned around the world.
Asian countries are leading the way and about 30 nuclear reactors are expected to be built in China by 2020, while Japan, India and Pakistan each have several more reactors on their drawing boards.
The rush to build nuclear plants has contributed to the substantially higher price of uranium over the past three years. So it is no surprise that construction companies are warning that nuclear power plant programmes may be delayed by equipment supply constraints.
The production of nuclear power plants may be stalled because of a backlog at Japan Steel Works. The company makes four a year. A shift to double capacity will not be enough to meet demand.
In Finland, the construction of a new technology reactor has been delayed for two years. The nuclear industry globally has a history of cost and time overruns. It is something that Eskom is going to have to manage very carefully indeed.
Investors in uranium explorers and miners will also be thinking twice about the risk this delayed consumption poses to the cheery projections of massive near-term demand increases."
Re: PDN - Paladin Resources
Hi Treefrog,
It is an interesting issue, I came across this about a month ago.
However, I find it curious that unprecedented demand for reactors whereby capacity even at double shift can't keep up, means pessimism for U demand. I make 2 points
Cheers,
PETEAI
Hi Treefrog,
It is an interesting issue, I came across this about a month ago.
However, I find it curious that unprecedented demand for reactors whereby capacity even at double shift can't keep up, means pessimism for U demand
. I make 2 points - at start-up reactors use 3 years worth of Uranium so a surge of reactors starts will lead to bigger surge in Uranium demand
- If Japan Steel works finds double shifts can not keep up with demand - it will find other ways to expand capacity OR others will
Cheers,
PETEAI
- Joined
- 29 August 2006
- Posts
- 909
- Reactions
- 148
Re: PDN - Paladin Resources
It is worth noting though that the new generation of reactors will be more efficient.
Typically since the 70`s, reactor burn up rates have doubled to 40GWd/tU.
The new reactors on order are looking at burn rates of over 60GWd/tU, an increase in efficiency of more than 30%.
At these rates uranium rods should last a year longer than todays best.
It is worth noting though that the new generation of reactors will be more efficient.
Typically since the 70`s, reactor burn up rates have doubled to 40GWd/tU.
The new reactors on order are looking at burn rates of over 60GWd/tU, an increase in efficiency of more than 30%.
At these rates uranium rods should last a year longer than todays best.
- Joined
- 1 February 2007
- Posts
- 1,068
- Reactions
- 0
Re: PDN - Paladin Resources
Might be old news guys but thought I would post this article from the Australian on April 15th about Paladin and the Merrill Lynch fiasco.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23541042-5005200,00.html
Might be old news guys but thought I would post this article from the Australian on April 15th about Paladin and the Merrill Lynch fiasco.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23541042-5005200,00.html
- Joined
- 4 February 2006
- Posts
- 564
- Reactions
- 0
Re: PDN - Paladin Resources
the following trend may also be a significant factor:
FN arena news 1 apr 08
Dynamics in the spot uranium market are changing with buyers confidently holding out and sellers looking for a way out
FN arena news 08 apr 08
No transactions concluded and no new demand appearing. That's pretty much all there is to say about uramium right now.
FN arena news 09 apr 08
Just when you thought the bottom had been reached, market watchers and participants believe prices are likely to drop further.
FN arean news 15 apr 08
Its a straightfoward case of supply exceeding demand that keeps the pressure on spot prices for yellow cake. The past week saw another fall.
FN arean news 17 apr 08
The slide in spot uranium continues with industry consultant UxC slicing a bit further than peer TradeTech.
so if WNA have it right with their projection that demand/supply is pretty much in balance until after 2010, these "games" can go on for a few years yet
the following trend may also be a significant factor:
FN arena news 1 apr 08
Dynamics in the spot uranium market are changing with buyers confidently holding out and sellers looking for a way out
FN arena news 08 apr 08
No transactions concluded and no new demand appearing. That's pretty much all there is to say about uramium right now.
FN arena news 09 apr 08
Just when you thought the bottom had been reached, market watchers and participants believe prices are likely to drop further.
FN arean news 15 apr 08
Its a straightfoward case of supply exceeding demand that keeps the pressure on spot prices for yellow cake. The past week saw another fall.
FN arean news 17 apr 08
The slide in spot uranium continues with industry consultant UxC slicing a bit further than peer TradeTech.
so if WNA have it right with their projection that demand/supply is pretty much in balance until after 2010, these "games" can go on for a few years yet
