NRZ - NeuRizer Ltd

[insider]

Re: MTN - Marathon Resources

From XAO thread:

Hmmmm, can't remember saying that exactly, but I think I know the comments you are referring to. However, now that you are out though, you need to be planning how to get back in on a turnaround, if/when it does. You may have just saved yourself some $$, and/or peace of mind, but one thing I always forget to do is buy back in on the turn around!

The reasons you were holding it are still there aren't they? If not, then you shouldn't have still been holding it perhaps?

Still might be a chance to milk this baby Insider! All the best!

Thanks Kennas... The reasons why I held the stock are still there but I don't care about that anymore, I care about my wallet much more... I think the worst part of this correction is yet to come out... And I'm an optimistic person

 

[dj_420]

Re: MTN - Marathon Resources

Thanks Kennas... The reasons why I held the stock are still there but I don't care about that anymore, I care about my wallet much more... I think the worst part of this correction is yet to come out... And I'm an optimistic person

could be, although the market has come off almost 10% in last few weeks. IMO we are somewhere near the bottom. this is shown by quite a few companies been sold off and bought back up very quickly. people are willing to bet that correction is near an end and go long again.

ones im long on JML, GBG and PDN have all been sold off but are bought back up in weakness.

producers, near term producers and companies in industry with good demand will perform best and pull out the other end much better than spec stocks. not saying MTN is spec BUT it will be a long time out until producing so maybe further weakness there.

 

[mb1]

Re: MTN - Marathon Resources

Insider your out? you even said yourself analysts put MTN at 8dollars something. Why didnt you just ride it out? The fundamentals are still the same as they were when the stock was trading around high 6.

50% GCT might not make a difference if your profit is a couple of thousand but it sure does when your talking tens of thousands...

 

[Logique]

Re: MTN - Marathon Resources

I'm siding with Samtomo on this one.
If a fall in overnight US indices of nearly 3%, Dow minus 387 points, isn't enough to knock it below 4.00, or similar stocks BMN and PDN below their recent lows, then what is. The whole uranium group looks appealing to me.

 

[insider]

Re: MTN - Marathon Resources

I think I can get in cheaper... this debacle is probably going to get worse than this... But hey I bought in at 1 dollar... At least I have a profit to take

 

[exgeo]

Re: MTN - Marathon Resources

August 09, 2007
Marathon Resources’ Uranium Potential Was First Spotted By Crosby Partners
By Our Man In Oz (from www.minesite.com)

Most punters, of the stock market and horse racing variety, like to follow a winner. In Australia, where they do things differently, there’s a prime example of why it’s sometimes good to follow a loser. Well, to be completely honest, there are actually two examples, and one loser. Crosby Partners, the Hong Kong-based merchant bank, is the two-time loser, though to be fair it has twice picked a stock which has gone on to be a winner. Two years ago it was Crosby’s low-ball bid for the Pakistan-focused explorer, Tethyan Copper which led to a bidding duel and eventual high-priced takeover of that company by a consortium of Canada’s Barrick Gold and Chile’s copper giant, Antofagasta. Last year, Crosby started the same game with an even lower-ball bid for the Australian uranium explorer, Marathon Resources, only to be beaten by Marathon’s soaring share price and joint venture deal which involved a big Chinese trading house.
For casual observers of the stock market, there’s a pattern here. Crosby has displayed considerable acumen in spotting undervalued resource stocks, tried to get them on the cheap, and then watched the price soar. The obvious way to play the game is to follow Crosby into a deal, wait for everyone else to catch on, and make yourself a winner even if Crosby is a loser.

Marathon is the latest Crosby game, but it’s worth a Tethyan refresher. The original bid for Tethyan was delivered in May, 2005, and priced at A64 cents a share. After 10-months of haggling and a series of counter-moves Barrick and Antofagasta won the day with an offer of A$1.40, a 118 per cent increase on Crosby’s starter price. With Marathon, the bidding started in July last year at A68 cents a share, was eventually lifted to A$3.52, with Marathon itself steaming ahead to hit a peak price of A$6.98 in late June. Over an 11-month period the price of Marathon rose by 920 per cent – though it has slipped back to around A$5.13 in the current sell-off. Despite the price correction over July it is worth looking at what attracted both of Crosby’s moves, and keep an eye out for its next move.

With Tethyan it was the potential to win control of a world-class, undeveloped copper and gold structure called Reko Diq. Located in one of the world’s least desirable locations, a remote corner of Pakistan, close to the borders of Afghanistan and Iran, Reko Diq has one redeeming feature, it is very, very big. If peace ever reigns in that part of the world it has the potential to become of the world’s great copper/gold mines – which is why fleet-footed Crosby struck first, and Barrick and Antofagasta could not resist the prize.

Marathon is a similar situation. The location is not as politically sensitive, but the environment is. The plum inside the company is an undeveloped uranium orebody called Mt Gee. Discovered more than 30 years ago it is located in the rugged hill country known as Arkaroola, about 450 kilometres due north of Adelaide. No-one doubts that there is an awful lot of uranium at Mt Gee. Deutsche Bank estimates the resource at 31,000 tonnes, and told clients in late May that it was such a high quality resource that Marathon’s share price had much further to run with a 12-month price target of A$8.24 – or about 1100 per cent more than what Crosby was prepared to offer just 13 months ago.

What helped drive Marathon out of Crosby’s reach, apart from the spot uranium price soaring from US$50 a pound to US$130/lb during the currency of the bid, was Marathon’s ability to find friends in high places. Late last year the Chinese trading house, CITIC and interests associated with the Queensland coal miner, Ken Talbot, took 10 per cent placements in Marathon. Their combined 20 per cent, and the financial firepower they control gives them effective control of Marathon which is pushing ahead with a unique exploration and mine plan.

Marathon chief executive, Stuart Hall, told Minesite on the sidelines of a uranium conference in Western Australia, that the current mine plan was to drive into the Mt Gee orebody from outside Arkaroola, thus avoiding any surface disturbance. The exact direction and angle of the drive, which would run for about two kilometres, is yet to be decided because recent drilling is expanding the resource, and finding rich material at greater depth. “The structure appears to be getting richer at depth, so we need to do more work before finalising mine design,” Hall said. Ongoing drilling and environmental data collection is expected to last the rest of 2007, with 2008 taken up with pre-feasibility studies, leading into a full feasibility study in the first half of 2009, and a possible start on construction later that year.

Work at Mt Gee, especially the proposed novel mining method makes the company one to watch, especially as South Australia is one of the pro-uranium mining states in Australia. But, of much more interest is to maintain a watching brief on what Crosby does next because even if it becomes a three-time loser its ability to pick under-valued assets can make other people a lot of money.

 

[MBI]

Re: MTN - Marathon Resources

Insider - I am surprised that you cash out when you had it going since $1. You must be very convinced that there is more downward pressure to come, and given the Wall Street volatility you may be right mate. I missed out when Kennas hilited time to hit for bunkers and had been holding tight to the railings on the fast-n-furious rough ride since.

At least there is some light coming out from this storm:

Marathon chief executive, Stuart Hall, told Minesite on the sidelines of a uranium conference in Western Australia, that the current mine plan was to drive into the Mt Gee orebody from outside Arkaroola, thus avoiding any surface disturbance. The exact direction and angle of the drive, which would run for about two kilometres, is yet to be decided because recent drilling is expanding the resource, and finding rich material at greater depth. “The structure appears to be getting richer at depth, so we need to do more work before finalising mine design,” Hall said. Ongoing drilling and environmental data collection is expected to last the rest of 2007, with 2008 taken up with pre-feasibility studies, leading into a full feasibility study in the first half of 2009, and a possible start on construction later that year.

It is really positive that they are still encountering bigger resource progressively which will go on till yearend. I don't have any issue granting 70k of options to that guy at $4.7x exercise - but damn he got to do a better job fronting the market. Having to read this info from a sideline interview report does not speak much of an impression desired from a CEO. I put this as their weakness in addition to the environment protection issue. good post exgeo.

 

[insider]

Re: MTN - Marathon Resources

Insider - I am surprised that you cash out when you had it going since $1. You must be very convinced that there is more downward pressure to come, and given the Wall Street volatility you may be right mate. I missed out when Kennas hilited time to hit for bunkers and had been holding tight to the railings on the fast-n-furious rough ride since.

At least there is some light coming out from this storm:



It is really positive that they are still encountering bigger resource progressively which will go on till yearend. I don't have any issue granting 70k of options to that guy at $4.7x exercise - but damn he got to do a better job fronting the market. Having to read this info from a sideline interview report does not speak much of an impression desired from a CEO. I put this as their weakness in addition to the environment protection issue. good post exgeo.

The JORC report is due out late this month but if memory serves me correctly last correction MTN put out an amazing report and the SP still fell...

 

[insider]

Re: MTN - Marathon Resources

pi$$ed off... at 4:10PM after the market closed a guy moves in with a massive order to clean up form $4.30 to $4.54... That is a load of crap, why is it allowed...

 

[ahspritemk]

Re: MTN - Marathon Resources

Ah well insider, im sure the person is slightly regretting buying MTN at such prices. Just wondering what your re-entry price would be, that’s if you decide to re-enter. I topped up at $4.10 this morning & $3.98 a few days ago. Wish I had known about MTN at $1 like you did, congrats.

 

[insider]

Re: MTN - Marathon Resources

I just thought you'd like to know that you probably bought those shares from me... I'd like $3.50 I'd love $3.00 Who knows... I'm not caring about MTN as a company but paying more attention to the XAO

 

[MBI]

Re: MTN - Marathon Resources

I just thought you'd like to know that you probably bought those shares from me... I'd like $3.50 I'd love $3.00 Who knows... I'm not caring about MTN as a company but paying more attention to the XAO

Dow had another round of beating last nite, so you might be correct to dispose and pickup at $3.50 over the next few days.

 

[samtomo]

Re: MTN - Marathon Resources

Yep, MTN is definetely copping a beating today. Current price is $3.40 and falling by the looks of things....

Not sure where the end to this will be? Any one have any comments??

 

[exgeo]

Re: MTN - Marathon Resources

"Look out below" would be my comment. I'm a long term uranium bull and that hasn't changed. But you can't argue with the market. I sold everything except gold and a few oils yesterday. I plan to buy back once things settle down. I am a fundamentals based trader by the way, but not so evangelical in my beliefs that I'll stand by and suffer a 50% loss.

 

[MBI]

Re: MTN - Marathon Resources

"Look out below" would be my comment. I'm a long term uranium bull and that hasn't changed. But you can't argue with the market. I sold everything except gold and a few oils yesterday. I plan to buy back once things settle down. I am a fundamentals based trader by the way, but not so evangelical in my beliefs that I'll stand by and suffer a 50% loss.

I could not agree with you more. Right now it is more of the overall financial market risk rather than a specific sector that is relevant. I suspect the situation is exacerbated by margin calls.

 

[insider]

Re: MTN - Marathon Resources

I think I'd prefer to sit this out... Uranium's spot price fell to $105... this may be the beginning of the end for uranium... I'll wait and see... good luck and God bless

 

[shinobi346]

Re: MTN - Marathon Resources

Price might be down but the real selling of the stuff hasn't really started yet. Another buyer has lined up for Aussie uranium.


http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,22248428-5003500,00.html

Nuclear proliferation no laughing matter

By staff writers and wires

August 15, 2007 11:50am

THE Federal Government's reported decision to sell uranium to India is wrong, Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd says.

The National Security Committee of federal cabinet last night reportedly decided to allow uranium shipments to India despite the fact that it is not a signatory to the international nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT).

Under the deal, Australian inspectors will be allowed to check that the uranium is not used for military purposes.

Mr Rudd said the decision to bypass the NTP would send the wrong message to the international community.

"It is a very bad development indeed when we have the possibility of the Government of Australia stepping outside the non-proliferation treaty, saying it's OK to sell uranium to a country which isn't a signatory to the NTP," Mr Rudd said.

Mr Rudd said Australia should have an interest in maintaining the integrity of the NTP.

"Nuclear weapons proliferation is not a laughing matter, it's a serious matter that's why the NTP exists," he said.

The Greens raised fears today that Australia is fuelling the production of nuclear weapons that could reach here, as India and the US disagreed over whether India is allowed to carry out nuclear tests.

"That's all a farce, the Indians themselves have said that will free us up to put the other uranium we've got into our nuclear weapon system," Senator Brown said.

"Australia is directly fuelling the production of nuclear weapons for a country which will soon have rockets that will reach Australia."

Yesterday India said its nuclear deal with the US would not affect its right to carry out nuclear tests if necessary.

Senator Brown said the decision to sell uranium to India would contribute to nuclear tensions between India and Pakistan and the spread of nuclear weapons around the world.

"It will also promote the building of nuclear weapons and rockets by Pakistan and across the border we're giving uranium to China and to Russia," he said.

US threat

The US State Department said today it would scrap a landmark nuclear deal with India if New Delhi conducted an atomic weapons test.

The statement came as the two governments gave different interpretations of the controversial nuclear deal's recently adopted operating agreement, also known as the 123 agreement.

"The proposed 123 agreement has provisions in it that in an event of a nuclear test by India, then all nuclear co-operation is terminated,'' State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said.

There is also a "provision for return of all materials, including reprocessed material covered by the agreement,'' he said.

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh told parliament yesterday that the agreement would not affect the Asian giant's military program or any plans to test nuclear weapons.

"The agreement does not in any way affect India's right to undertake future nuclear tests, if it is necessary.''

"There is no question that we will ever compromise, in any manner, our independent foreign policy. We shall retain our strategic autonomy,'' he said.

 

[Sean K]

Re: MTN - Marathon Resources

Nice looking hammer there. Hmmmmm Seems to be trending down fairly nicely though

Pattern: reversal
Reliability: low/moderate

Identification
A small real body forms at the upper end of a trading range with a long lower shadow (the longer the more bullish) with no, or almost no upper shadow.

The Psychology
In a downtrend or within a pullback of an uptrend, a sharp intraday sell-off is followed by a reversal which causes the stock to close near its opening price near the day’s high. This hints at the possibility of a reversal. Bulls most likely were shaken out by the intraday weakness, and shorts start getting a little worried with the bounce. The pattern is a slightly more reliable if the real body is white, but a strong following day on solid volume is still needed to confirm the pattern.

 

[insider]

Re: MTN - Marathon Resources

Nice looking hammer there. Hmmmmm Seems to be trending down fairly nicely though

Pattern: reversal
Reliability: low/moderate

Identification
A small real body forms at the upper end of a trading range with a long lower shadow (the longer the more bullish) with no, or almost no upper shadow.

The Psychology
In a downtrend or within a pullback of an uptrend, a sharp intraday sell-off is followed by a reversal which causes the stock to close near its opening price near the day’s high. This hints at the possibility of a reversal. Bulls most likely were shaken out by the intraday weakness, and shorts start getting a little worried with the bounce. The pattern is a slightly more reliable if the real body is white, but a strong following day on solid volume is still needed to confirm the pattern.

The volumes are soooooooo low right now that any buy up or sell up will affect the sp a lot... I'm still out of the market completely

 

[Sean K]

Re: MTN - Marathon Resources

Nice looking hammer there. Hmmmmm Seems to be trending down fairly nicely though

Well, that hammer didn't help. On it's own, just wasn't enough. No follow through, obviously. This is a disasterous chart. They are likely to get 90m lbs of U at Mt Gee, but I suppose that's no good if you can't mine it. My guess is that SA Gov will clear it in the end, so it's market cap for pound uranium must be looking tasty. Any thoughts on picking bottoms?