Ukraine War

[Dona Ferentes]

Dow Jones
Military aid [and intelligence sharing] has already started to flow into Ukraine after Kyiv agreed to implement a 30-day ceasefire with Russia at the conclusion of marathon talks with the US in Saudi Arabia.

“I have confirmation that the security assistance from the United States has been restored,” Pavlo Palisa, the deputy head of Ukraine’s presidential office, wrote on Facebook, while
Donald Trump said he was “open” to inviting Volodymyr Zelensky back to the White House and will speak to Vladimir Putin this week.

 

[mullokintyre]

Biden regime had a tad under 3 years to get a ceasefire.
Trump has managed it in less than 3 months.
Turning off the arms/cash/intelligence spigot is the Trump equivalent of slapping out tariffs.
Mick

 

[Knobby22]

Dow Jones
Military aid [and intelligence sharing] has already started to flow into Ukraine after Kyiv agreed to implement a 30-day ceasefire with Russia at the conclusion of marathon talks with the US in Saudi Arabia.

“I have confirmation that the security assistance from the United States has been restored,” Pavlo Palisa, the deputy head of Ukraine’s presidential office, wrote on Facebook, while
Donald Trump said he was “open” to inviting Volodymyr Zelensky back to the White House and will speak to Vladimir Putin this week.

Zelensky better wear a suit.

 

[sptrawler]

Biden regime had a tad under 3 years to get a ceasefire.
Trump has managed it in less than 3 months.
Turning off the arms/cash/intelligence spigot is the Trump equivalent of slapping out tariffs.
Mick

Trump wants these side issues sorted ASAP, he has heaps bigger issues to defend against eg.

MSN

Since 2011, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa have been members of the BRICS. This year, in the bloc's first expansion in over a decade, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia and Egypt were formally incorporated. In addition, 34 other countries have expressed interest in joining the group.

According to the Brazilian newspaper Folha de S. Paulo, in October, when the BRICS summit met in Russia, the president of Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, defended the idea that the countries of the bloc should seek alternative means of payment among themselves to reduce dependence on the use of the dollar.

The development of a compensation mechanism in local currencies for the BRICS is one of the priorities of Brazil, which assumes the presidency of the bloc this year and during 2025.
In addition to accelerating this proposal to be less dependent on the dollar, Brazil also wants to increase the role of the New Development Bank, the BRICS bank, currently under the presidency of former Brazilian president Dilma Rousseff.
Since 1944, the dollar has been the standard currency for international transactions. Trade between countries traditionally involves converting local currencies into the US dollar.
And although the dollar has a strong global position, relying on it leaves other countries vulnerable to its fluctuations and to US monetary policy.
One alternative that is already being used in some transactions is the use of the yuan, China's currency.
When Russia was excluded from the SWIFT system, the Asian giant, one of its major trading partners, took advantage of the situation to encourage exchanges in its currency, thus trying to strengthen its economy against the US.
The replacement of the dollar is unlikely to be consolidated in the short term, but the BRICS appears to have the necessary weight to promote an alternative.

As highlighted by Brazilian newspaper G1, the member countries represent 46% of the world's population and their combined GDP is already greater than that of the traditional Western powers, according to projections by the International Monetary Fund, so Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's proposal is certainly a threat to the United States.

 

[basilio]

A change of pace.
Hitler reacting to Trump-Zelensky argument.

 

[greggles]

Russia will not stop as Ukraine is literally the last place before NATO has a complete front line against the Russian border. This war is not winnable and the next step is escalation on Russia's part.

Russia will stop when its offensive culminates and the front lines collapse. Russia can order another mobilisation but Putin fears his own people more than anyone in the West, including Trump. The Russian economy is being held together by chewing gum and rubber bands. It will not take much to push it over the edge.

Putin does not have the ability to fight Europe. He doesn't have the equipment to give to any mobilised armed force. All his effective military forces have been killed or wounded already. His reliance on North Korean troops in the last few months speaks volumes about his manpower shortage and after the North Korean troops run out, he has nowhere to turn except further mobilisation and that is when the Russian people will start to turn on him. It won't happen overnight, but protests will start, they will be repressed, and then they will grow larger.

This is the West's one chance to get rid of Putin. Not to take advantage of it will be a catastrophic mistake.

 

[mullokintyre]

Russia will stop when its offensive culminates and the front lines collapse. Russia can order another mobilisation but Putin fears his own people more than anyone in the West, including Trump. The Russian economy is being held together by chewing gum and rubber bands. It will not take much to push it over the edge.

Putin does not have the ability to fight Europe. He doesn't have the equipment to give to any mobilised armed force. All his effective military forces have been killed or wounded already. His reliance on North Korean troops in the last few months speaks volumes about his manpower shortage and after the North Korean troops run out, he has nowhere to turn except further mobilisation and that is when the Russian people will start to turn on him. It won't happen overnight, but protests will start, they will be repressed, and then they will grow larger.

This is the West's one chance to get rid of Putin. Not to take advantage of it will be a catastrophic mistake.

Putin, like pretty much all of us, is not immortal.
He will get old(er), get sick , feeble and die.
Russia itself will suffer the same fate.
Its demographics are astoundingly bad and getting worse as more and more of its young men go through the mincer of war.
They will eventually end up with insufficient working people to support all the rest.
As a nation, they are on the abyss.
look at their top 10 exports.

64% of their exports come from a finite resource that is diminishing, though it is difficult to really work out what they have.
The more wealthy sections of th wold are supposedly shunning these products as CO2 pollutants.
The fact that about 70% of the oil they produce comes from extremely harsh and difficult climates in Siberia makes their task even more difficult.
The Ukraine war has shown that their Military is nowhere near as advanced as we were led to believe.
If the world is willing to wait and not goad Putin into unleashing Nuclear weapons cos he feels cornered, we will all be better off.
Mick

 

[IFocus]

Russia will stop when its offensive culminates and the front lines collapse. Russia can order another mobilisation but Putin fears his own people more than anyone in the West, including Trump. The Russian economy is being held together by chewing gum and rubber bands. It will not take much to push it over the edge.

Putin does not have the ability to fight Europe. He doesn't have the equipment to give to any mobilised armed force. All his effective military forces have been killed or wounded already. His reliance on North Korean troops in the last few months speaks volumes about his manpower shortage and after the North Korean troops run out, he has nowhere to turn except further mobilisation and that is when the Russian people will start to turn on him. It won't happen overnight, but protests will start, they will be repressed, and then they will grow larger.

This is the West's one chance to get rid of Putin. Not to take advantage of it will be a catastrophic mistake.

Totally agree a Australian I know has spent a huge amount of time in Russia one question he asked frequently of Russians was why did you vote for Putin and why do you let him rule simple answer was there are endless others in line that are far far worse … Russian logic

 

[Smurf1976]

64% of their exports come from a finite resource that is diminishing, though it is difficult to really work out what they have.

Based on US Energy Information Administration (US Government) estimates a few years ago, Russia has:

23.3% of the world's natural gas reserves, the largest of any country.

4.7% of the world's oil reserves, putting Russia in 8th place behind Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Canada, United Arab Emirates and Kuwait.

9.5% of the world's hard coal (bituminous or anthracite), putting Russia in 5th place behind the US, China, India and Australia.

28.4% of the world's lignite and sub-bituminous coal, the largest of any country. Such coal isn't generally considered exportable however due to its lower energy density. It's adequate for local use for power generation or at a stretch boiler fuel.

By the same estimates Ukraine has:

0.5% of world natural gas reserves.

A not zero but inconsequential amount of oil, circa 0.02% of world reserves.

4.4% of hard coal (anthracite and bituminous)

0.7% of the world's lignite and sub-bituminous coal.