Market Crash 2025

[DannyB0000]

I don't think Trump likes to see the Stockmarket crashing, it reflects badly on him. His election promise was to bring down the prices of goods not increase them, inflation would be zero. Someone must of talked sense into him overnight which is a miracle, I hope Trump didn't fire him or her.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Trump has pulled back from the tariffs. I did hear there were some very unhappy Republicans.

I think next time the tariffs will be smaller and more targeted but who knows?

I don't believe Trump is affected by anybody else's interests, especially his supporters or donors. It is all about Trump and his and his family's interests. Although we will never know his sons and Jared Kushner probably had a word in his ear about some of their $Billions being at risk.

gg

 

[Knobby22]

A lot of speculation. Everyone is second guessing Trump which I suspect he likes.

 

[divs4ever]

I don't think Trump likes to see the Stockmarket crashing, it reflects badly on him. His election promise was to bring down the prices of goods not increase them, inflation would be zero. Someone must of talked sense into him overnight which is a miracle, I hope Trump didn't fire him or her.

Trump's biggest problem will be getting accurate data ( on almost everything )
the system lies so often , it believes the farcical data and it's own narrative ,

how much of the fake data can Trump and advisers banish into the dustbin

Musk's adventure into the Treasury accounts will just be the tip of the iceberg ( maybe even the first snowflake in Antarctica )

by the time he gets to the IRS , Homeland Security , and Department of Defense they will need one thousand robot Musk's just to scan the accounts , let alone come to conclusions

 

[Smurf1976]

The Trump post-election glow and optimism feels like it's evaporating. Nothing has really changed except maybe the tariffs to come.

I'll avoid commenting on politics and just say it's the old "buy the rumour, sell the fact" scenario there.

US Presidential elections have the particular attribute of the outcome being effectively certain and widely known quite some time before it happens. The election was held on 5 November 2024, the new President inaugurated on 21 January 2025.

So that's 2.5 months during which, barring any unforeseen event such as death, the outcome was certain and known to practically everyone. There aren't many situations where you get that sort of advance notice of a certain outcome and it's plenty of time for all but the largest institutions to enter or exit whatever financial positions.

Only comment I'll make on specific policies is in regards to natural gas. A few points here all of which in my view are conducive to higher prices:

About 7.5% of "US" natural gas production is actually imported from Canada by pipeline. Applying a tariff to that will make it more expensive.

Plans to increase LNG exports from the US are, in the US domestic market context, not a new source of supply as many seem to be incorrectly thinking. Rather, it is an increase in demand.

The idea of increasing manufacturing will in practice require more natural gas for use both as an energy source and as chemical feedstock (natural gas being the raw material for various chemicals etc).

AI, manufacturing and economic growth in general require electricity. For not all but for much of the US the marginal source of that is in practice natural gas, since other sources are already fully utilised and won't be rapidly expanded or duplicated.

From there it's basic economics. More demand and no real change in supply but some of that supply costs more. Price should rise.

With the added "gotcha" that a large portion of the US' gas production is a by-product of oil production. That being so, a rise in the gas price has only a weak linkage to any effort to produce more of it, the oil price being a much greater influence.

 

[Craton]

Spot on @Smurf1976 and hence as per The White House, Trump's proposed lower rate of a 10% tariff on Canada's energy imports.

Snippet and my bolds:

ADDRESSING AN EMERGENCY SITUATION: The extraordinary threat posed by illegal aliens and drugs, including deadly fentanyl, constitutes a national emergency under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).

• Until the crisis is alleviated, President Donald J. Trump is implementing a 25% additional tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico and a 10% additional tariff on imports from China. Energy resources from Canada will have a lower 10% tariff.

The fact that he proposes that lower rate on imported Canadian energy demonstrates he is fully aware that tariffs increase prices. Not so good for "Trumps' Mob" and their profits eh?

I find it curious, funny even that Trump has used the IEEPA for this. Something that was signed into being by the late President Carter.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Trump is like us all getting older and not able to think on his feet as quickly as he did 8 years ago. If I were Canadian or Mexican I’d be applying my own tariffs on the US and give Trump’s balls a good painful vigorous squeeze.

He is vulnerable atm. I’m not looking at selling any of my ASX holdings.

gg

 

[farmerge]

Trump is like us all getting older and not able to think on his feet as quickly as he did 8 years ago. If I were Canadian or Mexican I’d be applying my own tariffs on the US and give Trump’s balls a good painful vigorous squeeze.

He is vulnerable atm. I’m not looking at selling any of my ASX holdings.

gg

At present my ASX holdings don't account for much. In fact the CHN holding which I have been trading for awhile sold this morning, perhaps a tad early but the profit is what I am chasing.
Perhaps some good buys appearing over the next few days.
LYC is another that I have my eye on.
Was kind to me some time ago and might be so again!!!!!

 

[divs4ever]

Trump is like us all getting older and not able to think on his feet as quickly as he did 8 years ago. If I were Canadian or Mexican I’d be applying my own tariffs on the US and give Trump’s balls a good painful vigorous squeeze.

He is vulnerable atm. I’m not looking at selling any of my ASX holdings.

gg

have some reduction orders in the market ( two of them ) more out of hope than conviction

i will stick to my basic plan .. sell/reduce when in a sensible profit or there is a VERY good reason to trim or cull the holding

basically the entire G7 is fragile one way or another , but since i have been avoiding most of them since 2020 my real worry is contagion ( into the rest of the world )