The future of energy generation and storage

[Smurf1976]

Regardless of the means of generation, it's foolish to not have administrative arrangements that get the best results from it.

We have the same basic problem in Australia but more extreme - price in Qld briefly spiked to over $17,000 a few days ago.

 

[sptrawler]

I came in from surfing Red Bluff / Gnaraloo to Carnarvon walked into the PowerStation and asked Keith Deimel for a job 1980/81.

To my horror he gave me the job, the power station was still owned by Carnarvon Shire.

Three weeks later SECWA took it over and became Country Undertakings with me being the Electrician (with NFI) for power stations and HV Onslow to Kalbarri and inland to Gascoyne Junction with the odd run out to Mecka / Wiluna.

Keith was nice guy,

Well in 1987 Gascoyne Junction was costing $1.10/kWh to produce electricity.

Meekatharra concentrated solar generation plant 50/50 SECWA/German Govt July 1981, shut down in 1985, went to SIMS metal in 1987, from memory.

But we can take solace from the fact SECWA was the first in Australia to put in a wind Farm (Esperance) 6 x small wind generators 1987.

Punching above our weight, even then.

 

[Smurf1976]

Meekatharra concentrated solar generation plant 50/50 SECWA/German Govt July 1981, shut down in 1985, went to SIMS metal in 1987, from memory.

Did the idea not work?

If it worked then I'd have thought that once the $ were spent to build it, the economics would strongly favour continuing to operate it.

SECWA was the first in Australia to put in a wind Farm (Esperance) 6 x small wind generators 1987.

I've actually walked around that site.....

 

[sptrawler]

I came in from surfing Red Bluff / Gnaraloo to Carnarvon walked into the PowerStation and asked Keith Deimel for a job 1980/81.

To my horror he gave me the job, the power station was still owned by Carnarvon Shire.

While we are on memory lane, a bit off topic but in 1981 I was just up the road from you, here's a view from the navigation beacon on tower 11 at the VLF transmitter Exmouth. That grey vehicle is a GMC van, 600' down.

Here is one looking across at tower zero, that holds up the centre of the aerial matt, 1165' tall it is as scary as hell up there.

OK, I know completely off topic, mop and bucket to aisle 6.

 

[sptrawler]

Did the idea not work?

If it worked then I'd have thought that once the $ were spent to build it, the economics would strongly favour continuing to operate it.



I've actually walked around that site.....

No, apparently when they crunched the numbers it used more parasitic power than it produced.
Also a couple of engines blew up, the boiler was using waste heat from the engines as well. I went to Regionals in 1986 and one of the first projects was to remove it.
They did get a lot of leading edge technology on solar tracking, from the parabolic mirrors following the sun.

I've walked around the site way too many times.

It was well located, right over the road from the pub, now the station has been replaced with LNG units.

I've got some old pictures from the Regionals days, I will post up a couple when I get home tomorrow, it will give members an idea of what the diesel power stations are like.

 

[Smurf1976]

Gas in Western Australia

Is WA heading for a gas shortage? Hardly! In fact, if Western Australia were a country, it would be the world’s third largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) after the USA and Qatar.

australiainstitute.org.au

For those in WA, I suggest referring to the instructions regarding the brace position before reading the following, it makes for some unsettling reading.....

Reserve data from Geoscience Australia (government) and is just over two years old (end 2022 calendar year):

Carnarvon Basin (aka the NW Shelf etc):
Gas resources (sub-economic) = 39,948 PJ
Gas reserves (economic) = 53,334 PJ
Gas produced to date = 48,001 PJ

Canning Basin (inland up north)
Unconventional gas = 2429 PJ
Gas resources (sub-economic) = 292 PJ
Gas produced to date = 2 PJ

Perth Basin:
Gas resources = 744 PJ
Gas reserves = 1610 PJ
Gas produced to date = 847 PJ

Total WA:
Unconventional gas = 2429 PJ
Gas resources = 40,984 PJ
Gas reserves = 54,944 PJ
Gas produced to end 2022 = 48,850 PJ

Now at face value that might not sound too bad. Thus far about half the economic reserves have been used, only a bit over a third of the total gas has been used, and all this took decades so we're right for a while yet, aren't we?

Not so fast.....

WA gas production as follows. Noting the vast majority of it is coming out of the Carnarvon Basin in practice, and the rest from the Perth Basin. All quantities are in PJ, same units as the reserve data so no funny maths here.

2011-12 = 1276.3
2012-13 = 1530.9
2013-14 = 1578.8
2014-15 = 1598.9
2015-16 = 1753.2
2016-17 = 2114.1
2017-18 = 2668.6
2018-19 = 3275.5
2019-20 = 3363.3
2020-21 = 3157.7
2021-22 = 3439.1
2022-23 = 3711.0

I'll leave you to do the maths but the game's up in just a few more years. This isn't sustainable even in the medium term.

 

[sptrawler]

For those in WA, I suggest referring to the instructions regarding the brace position before reading the following, it makes for some unsettling reading.....

Reserve data from Geoscience Australia (government) and is just over two years old (end 2022 calendar year):

Carnarvon Basin (aka the NW Shelf etc):
Gas resources (sub-economic) = 39,948 PJ
Gas reserves (economic) = 53,334 PJ
Gas produced to date = 48,001 PJ

Canning Basin (inland up north)
Unconventional gas = 2429 PJ
Gas resources (sub-economic) = 292 PJ
Gas produced to date = 2 PJ

Perth Basin:
Gas resources = 744 PJ
Gas reserves = 1610 PJ
Gas produced to date = 847 PJ

Total WA:
Unconventional gas = 2429 PJ
Gas resources = 40,984 PJ
Gas reserves = 54,944 PJ
Gas produced to end 2022 = 48,850 PJ

Now at face value that might not sound too bad. Thus far about half the economic reserves have been used, only a bit over a third of the total gas has been used, and all this took decades so we're right for a while yet, aren't we?

Not so fast.....

WA gas production as follows. Noting the vast majority of it is coming out of the Carnarvon Basin in practice, and the rest from the Perth Basin. All quantities are in PJ, same units as the reserve data so no funny maths here.

2011-12 = 1276.3
2012-13 = 1530.9
2013-14 = 1578.8
2014-15 = 1598.9
2015-16 = 1753.2
2016-17 = 2114.1
2017-18 = 2668.6
2018-19 = 3275.5
2019-20 = 3363.3
2020-21 = 3157.7
2021-22 = 3439.1
2022-23 = 3711.0

I'll leave you to do the maths but the game's up in just a few more years. This isn't sustainable even in the medium term.

And that isn't taking into considetation the anti gas anti emission lobby group, greens group and the general rent a lobby group.
As soon as coal is gone, next one up is gas that's a certainty.
The issue I have is we aren't making much headway with viable alternatives eg hydro, Snowy2 has been on the go since 2017 its now 2024 and no other mega storage projects seem to be even at the discussion stage.
Also as I've mentioned the Marinus link capacity has been halved, it just appears to be add hock, I may well be wrong but I thought it is a serious issue.

 

[IFocus]

No, apparently when they crunched the numbers it used more parasitic power than it produced.
Also a couple of engines blew up, the boiler was using waste heat from the engines as well. I went to Regionals in 1986 and one of the first projects was to remove it.
They did get a lot of leading edge technology on solar tracking, from the parabolic mirrors following the sun.

I've walked around the site way too many times.

It was well located, right over the road from the pub, now the station has been replaced with LNG units.

I've got some old pictures from the Regionals days, I will post up a couple when I get home tomorrow, it will give members an idea of what the diesel power stations are like.

Seen it running 81/82 talked to the two Germans was very marginal but great trial all the same.

 

[qldfrog]

Of interest:

QLD ‘Market Demand’ reached 10,897MW on Friday 24th January 2025 (3rd highest day ever)

We’ve checked with NEMwatch in this snapshot for the 18:35 dispatch interval (NEM time) on Friday 24th January 2025 and we see that the ‘Market Demand’ reached 10,897MW (target for the 17:45 dispatch interval).

wattclarity.com.au

 

[sptrawler]

Of interest:

QLD ‘Market Demand’ reached 10,897MW on Friday 24th January 2025 (3rd highest day ever)

We’ve checked with NEMwatch in this snapshot for the 18:35 dispatch interval (NEM time) on Friday 24th January 2025 and we see that the ‘Market Demand’ reached 10,897MW (target for the 17:45 dispatch interval).

wattclarity.com.au

As I said in a similar @Smurf1976 post, that is a lot of black generation that has to be replaced by yellow generation and added to that the storage to get through the night has to be charged by even more yellow generation.

It's a BIG job.

 

[qldfrog]

As I said in a similar @Smurf1976 post, that is a lot of black generation that has to be replaced by yellow generation and added to that the storage to get through the night has to be charged by even more yellow generation.

It's a BIG job.

Or realistically an impossible task economically in current Australia...but hey we save the planet

 

[sptrawler]

Or realistically an impossible task economically in current Australia...but hey we save the planet

As you know we contribute less than 2% of the worlds emissions, but we do have to do our best, as long as it doesn't send us to a third world electricity grid, because if that happens people start using wood again to heat their houses in winter.

 

[qldfrog]

As you know we contribute less than 2% of the worlds emissions, but we do have to do our best, as long as it doesn't send us to a third world electricity grid, because if that happens people start using wood again to heat their houses in winter.

Do like Germany from world power to average EU laggard just on energy mispolicies and within 10y
an absolute masterpiece
Their CO2 reduction is a great success

 

[Smurf1976]

Or realistically an impossible task economically in current Australia...

Problem is we've got no choice but to do something.

In round figures, across the NEM states there's the following steam or gas turbine plant in service:

50+ years old = 1 GW
45 - 50 years old = 4 GW
40 - 45 years old = 8.5 GW
35 - 40 years old = 3.2 GW

So there's no "business as usual" option to just carry on without building anything.

Then there's the issue of gas supply. Even if the plant's in OK condition, it needs fuel to run.....

 

[qldfrog]

Problem is we've got no choice but to do something.

In round figures, across the NEM states there's the following steam or gas turbine plant in service:

50+ years old = 1 GW
45 - 50 years old = 4 GW
40 - 45 years old = 8.5 GW
35 - 40 years old = 3.2 GW

So there's no "business as usual" option to just carry on without building anything.

Then there's the issue of gas supply. Even if the plant's in OK condition, it needs fuel to run.....

Definitely and fully aware, but in a collapsing economy,abysmal performance starting well before but now compounding since covid: look at the last figures from 2020 onwards..even laggards like Italy Spain are doing better than us, we are realistically back to the wall
I believe that right now, our priority should be drill drill drill for gas (a la Trump). obviously serious legislative work to preserve assets, allow exploration and speed development..we do not want to beat qatar, this is purely domestic and gas first just because it is in my limited knowledge the quickest way to install reliable significant capacity .
Restart a couple of new coal based power plants near mines in qld: will take longer but they will give us 40 to 50y multi generation breathing space until fusion or better batteries..
I believe china sustained 17+ minutes of fusion recently which if true is bigger news than the tennis open....
I mentioned these compressed air batteries..add these to solar plants ,mandated, providing local jobs and base power to smaller communities out in the outback, do not help lithium batteries and as for mining, ensure there is a fund so that the recycling of toxic batteries,wind and solar farms does not become the taxpayer problem in 15y or even less after the next cyclone.
That part will still happen even if we manage to develop,(if China develops..) cheaper less toxic batteries
If none of this gets done, we will become the uk of pre Thatcher time, a destroyed economic joke a la SA, full of collapsed companies gifting our kids wastelands of poisoned lands, ruined landscapes with exclusion barbed wires and an Argentine like economy and purchasing power without a Milei hope or latin love of life
And not sure that nightmare can even be avoided at all frankly, too far gone structurally and in depth , outside the grid issue, to be saved.
As in the market, DYOR, act accordingly and save your own bacon/Vegemite sandwich or toasted avocado
Once again Mr @Smurf1976 , the wealth of topical data and information you have provided on this thread is priceless

 

[sptrawler]

Problem is we've got no choice but to do something.

In round figures, across the NEM states there's the following steam or gas turbine plant in service:

50+ years old = 1 GW
45 - 50 years old = 4 GW
40 - 45 years old = 8.5 GW
35 - 40 years old = 3.2 GW

So there's no "business as usual" option to just carry on without building anything.

Then there's the issue of gas supply. Even if the plant's in OK condition, it needs fuel to run.....

That is the crux of the problem, if things don't speed up there will be no time to develop a plan B, even if the wanted to.

 

[sptrawler]

That is the crux of the problem, if things don't speed up there will be no time to develop a plan B, even if the wanted to.

On the issue of things moving too slowly.

MSN

From the article:

At least three companies have bowed out of the race to develop an offshore wind farm in Western Australia.

But the deadline for developers to apply has been pushed back twice to January 30, prompting speculation interest has waned.

Oceanex Energy has now revealed it will not pursue the west-coast development due to delays with similar projects on the east coast.

The Australian company's Bunbury office was closed in November last year.

Meanwhile, German developer Skyborn Renewables told the ABC it was withdrawing from Australia altogether after a review of its global operations and long-term business objectives.

Both companies were early proponents of building an offshore wind farm in WA's South West.

Hong-Kong-owned Australian energy retailer and developer Alinta Energy has also also confirmed it no longer plans to apply for a licence.

Oceanex chairman and co-founder Andy Evans said many developers had rushed to establish offices on the east coast and become tied up there amid project delays caused by an unexpected amount of "green tape".

He said Oceanex's resources were mostly bound up in the Hunter Valley offshore wind project where the company was recently awarded a preliminary feasibility licence.

"As a country, we really make it hard for ourselves," Mr Evans said.

"All I think industry wants is just certainty on timelines to get projects up and going.

"It's the old saying, 'time kills projects.' That is no truer than in the development phase."

Calls for 'streamlined' regulation​

Grattan Institute program director for energy and climate change Tony Wood said while progress on renewable infrastructure had been slow across the board, offshore wind projects had been particularly restricted.

Mr Wood said this was partly due to projects taking place in offshore waters, meaning developers were forced to navigate both state and federal jurisdictions.

"If you end up with complicated overlapping and inconsistent regulation, then you've got a real problem," he said.

"Taking five to seven years for regulatory approval is just crazy.

"Federal and state [governments] need to look at this and say, 'Can we streamline this?'"

Mr Wood said rising costs had also played a role in forcing budgets and timelines to be revised.

The CSIRO's 2023-24 GenCost report, modelling future electricity costs, found wind power was recovering the slowest from global inflationary pressures.

But Mr Evans said he believed offshore wind had a bright future in Australia, once regulatory issues were ironed out.

"In a way, I think offshore wind has been a victim of its own success," he said.

"It's been a mad dash with a number of zones being declared and licences awarded … everyone's just catching their breath."

 

[Smurf1976]

I don't know what it's normally like but one of the windier places I've ever been to was Busselton in WA.

Walking out on the big jetty was actually quite difficult due to walking straight into the wind. Much easier coming back in.

Whether or not that's typical I don't know but it was a consistent gale when I was there. Probably a bit too touristy to put a wind farm there, but presumably there's other spots like that on the coast.

 

[sptrawler]

I don't know what it's normally like but one of the windier places I've ever been to was Busselton in WA.

Walking out on the big jetty was actually quite difficult due to walking straight into the wind. Much easier coming back in.

Whether or not that's typical I don't know but it was a consistent gale when I was there. Probably a bit too touristy to put a wind farm there, but presumably there's other spots like that on the coast.

There is definitely one proposed for Busselton.
It would be well located to connect into the old Bunbury power station switchyard.

https://www.dcceew.gov.au/energy/renewable/offshore-wind/areas/bunbury

 

[sptrawler]

A good article on the state of play in the W.A grid and also discusses and confirms what we have talked about in this thread, worth a read for those interested in an overview of the W.A system.
I worked alongside Andy Wearmouth for a lot of my career, he is a honest straight shooter and has worked as a senior electrical engineer in power production all of his career. So he does know what he is talking about and his assessment will be pretty well on the money.
As are Mr Fyfe's comments, a very open and frank article.

MSN

A monument to storage​

Indeed, WA is placing big bets on big batteries on a monumental scale.

In Kwinana, two sit side by side.

The first was built during the depths of COVID.

With a size of 100 megawatts and a capacity to run for two hours, the battery was for a time one of the biggest in Australia.

But last month it was eclipsed by the commissioning of a second, sister battery, which can run at 200MW for four hours.

Further down the road near Collie — the traditional home of coal mining and coal-fired power production in WA — there are batteries that are vastly bigger still.

Late last year, French renewable energy player Neoen cut the ribbon at a gargantuan 560MW/2240MWh installation just outside the town.

By this October, Synergy is scheduled to bring online a similarly massive facility just around the corner.

And there's more to come.

Gavin Mooney, the Australian general manager of smart energy platform Kaluza, says what's happening in WA is remarkable.

"The average demand on that grid in WA is about 2800MW," Mr Mooney explains.

"A couple of years ago, there wasn't a single battery there.

"By the end of this year, the state's going to have more than 1,500 megawatts of batteries installed.

"And by the end of next year, it's going to be over 2,000.

"So relative to the average demand of 2,800, this is a really big chunk."

WA's gambit on big batteries is aimed at solving a raft of the problems posed by the shift towards renewable energy — and away from fossil fuels.

Shifting the load​

Arguably, however, it's centred on something little-known outside of the energy industry — a phenomenon called load shifting.

The term refers to shifting demand for electricity — load — to those times of the day when supply might be more abundant.

In an Australian context, Mr Fyfe says, it means shifting demand to when solar output is greatest.

"Western Australia now has over 40 per cent of households with solar panels on the roof," Mr Fyfe notes.

"In the middle of the day, a 23-degree day, maybe on a Sunday, for example, we end up in a situation where there's more energy coming into the system than there are people to use it."

Mr Mooney echoed the comments.

He says rooftop solar is increasingly defining Australia's electricity supply and the design of the system needs to reflect this.

"It all comes back to rooftop solar," Mr Mooney argues.

"We have all this excess rooftop solar, and it's being exported to the grid. And it needs to be used somewhere.

"That is where batteries come in.

"By charging up in the middle of the day, the batteries can start to soak up some of that rooftop solar and actually increase demand in the middle of the day.

"They can then start discharging in the evening when we have a peak in demand, people get home from work, they turn on the air conditioning, they turn on the oven, and so on."


Mr Fyfe says using batteries in this way avoids placing the burden on households to shift their own demand to the middle of the day.

He notes many consumers can — and do — change their behaviour to capitalise on cheap solar power when it's available.

But he argues many others can't.

"There's two ways to fix the issue," he says.

"You build more generation or you change behaviour.

"Sometimes building more generation … is a more efficient way of doing it.

"You know, people aren't home in the middle of the day."

'Sun still has to shine'​

For all the optimism about batteries and their benefits to the system, others aren't so sure.

Andy Wearmouth is the former chief engineer at Synergy.

He says batteries are "very useful", particularly in shifting energy around on a day-to-day basis, but they are not a panacea because they don't generate electricity themselves.


"The difference is batteries don't make the stuff," Mr Wearmouth says.

"All they can do is store energy that they've taken from somewhere. The vision is that that will be taken from rooftop solar or wind and stored.

"But the problem is the coal-fired power station can bang away for days and weeks on end producing its energy at its name-plate rating.

"A battery can't do that. The premise is that the Sun must have shone or the wind must have blown the previous day so you can recharge the things."

Batteries 'no silver bullet'​

Mr Wearmouth says there will always be instances where the wind does not blow for days on end and solar output is much-diminished.

"I think they're being seen as a bit of a silver bullet," he says.

"And that is not my experience and judgement on what they actually are.

"It's a bit like a sugar hit — you get one hit out of a battery.

"Unless you can guarantee you've something to recharge it with, you've got a problem because the sugar hit isn't there tomorrow.

Mr Wearmouth says while renewable energy coupled with batteries will be able to meet some, or even much of the state's conventional generation, it needs an "insurance".


And that insurance, he stresses, is most probably going to be gas-fired power.

With it would come logistical challenges, he says, such as ensuring there is sufficient pipeline and storage capacity to meet occasional intense demand.

Then there is the economic challenge posed by it all — namely how to pay for all that gas capacity while using lower volumes of the stuff across a typical year.

Regardless of how it plays out, Mr Wearmouth is sure of one thing — the rest of the energy world will be keeping one eye on WA.

"If we take seriously the requirement to decarbonise, which we should, then getting it wrong sets back the cause an awfully long way," he says.

"People are very intolerant of sitting in the dark, particularly on hot days.

"So getting it wrong really challenges your ability to move forward in any direction.

"You've got to get it right."

World's eyes watching​

On that point, Mr Fyfe from Synergy agrees.

He says WA is blazing a trail that others may well follow.

"Battery storage, you'll find, will be an essential cog in the energy system and it will play an incredible role allowing additional renewable energy to come on in the system," Mr Fyfe says.

"And as we transition away from coal, that's really important."

Mr Mooney acknowledges that batteries are not — and cannot be — the solution to all of the problems that are facing the energy transition.

He concedes the question of "deep storage" — or energy capacity that can last for days or weeks at a time — is vexing and, as yet, without answer.

But he says it would be a mistake to underestimate the importance of batteries — to overlook what they will do and they are, in fact, already doing.

[Battery revolution — California graph]
For example, he says that while rooftop solar is squeezing out coal power in the middle of the day, batteries would allow it to increasingly displace gas generation in the peak.


In any case, he says the size of WA's bet on batteries would have profound effects.

"There are other regions of the world where we have significant numbers of batteries being installed, such as California, Texas, you know, sunny places with lots of rooftop solar.

"Also, places where there's just a lot of variable renewables, wind and solar.

"In the United Kingdom, for example, it was announced … two of the biggest batteries in Europe are going to be built in Scotland.

"But I think where WA really is world leading is the scale of the batteries compared to the size of the grid."