ANL - Amani Gold

[YOUNG_TRADER]

I'm working on an update, but conservatively heres what I see so far,

Top Section Only
2000m Long x 600m Wide x 15m Deep = 18M cubic metres ore,

As we have assumed 1 Cubic Metre Ore Containg Gold = 2T's ore

So 18M x 2 = 36Mt's at avg grade 0.8g/t Au (I think thats safe to say)

36Mt's@ 0.8 g/tAu = 28.8M Grams Gold and since 28grams = 1oz = 1moz's Au

So 1M oz's Au at cash margin of say $150 oz = $150m

Less say $10m start up costs = $140m
@ 70% but I'm pretty sure the can go higher ie free carry the other party = $98m

With current 45m shares on issue = $2 a share

More detail to follow

 

[gunditrader]

Think possibly only 24Mt of ore from your calcs.

not bad though

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Nope 36Mts!

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Does everyone agree that from the pic the North Section looks to be 2000m Long x 600m Wide ? Note by North Section I am talking about the area covered by both past and recent drilling ie the Green and Black Circles in the North that kind slop on an angle

Do people also agree that the avg thickness looks to be 15m?

Also that the avg grade should get to 0.8g/t ?

If not why, give detailed reasons, I'm fairly sure these are accurate estimations, but are nevertheless crucial in reaching our 1Moz Gold figure

 

[nomore4s]

I make it as wide as 750m in areas according to the scale, but 600m is good for a conservative est.

 

[skegsi]

Is the width of the drill holes or the silly white outline thing...
technically speaking

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

I'm going by the width of all drill holes, hence the low thicknss only 15m's and low grade only 0.8g/t assumption, of course there will be higher grade zones,

I much prefer open pit low grade gold operations to underground troublesome so called high grade operations cough cough CRS BDG BEACONSFIELD BMO GLN ARX cough cough cough, yep Open Pit is the better way to go IMO




The big differential for Mansounia is the existing mining and milling infrastructure less than 2kms to the North, combined with near surface mineralization = Very Low Cap Ex

As well as a Town about 3km’s to the East!

With the acquisition of the uranium portfolio to occur in about 1 month,

The rights issue to be announced shortly

A gold project that looks to be worth $100m to BYR on conservative estimates

And a booming gold price,

Downside risk seems fairly limited at current Mkt cap of $13m with $3m+ cash

 

[nomore4s]

YT,

Went and had a look at the SEMAFO website re the mine next door to BYR holding.
For 3 months till Sept 2006 the cash operating cost was $399 per oz & a cash operating cost of $31 per t for ore processing. Have been unable to confirm the grade for this period, they state that "the change in the cash operating cost in 2006 are largely due to the processing of lower-grade ore."

Don't know if this helps you with your analysis or not

PS I'm assuming it's US $

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

I'm pretty sure SEMAFO is a similar 30Mt@1g/t Au + type operation

But there you go Cash Cost of $400 oz

That would give a margin of $400 oz, so for 1Moz's = $400m

I'd be very surprised if SEMAFO weren't sitting up and taking notice given that they are depleting they're reserves anf have a much much larger mkt cap, JV definately on the cards IMO, Burey should first earn up to their Maximum 85% interest and then farm out say 50%, retaing a 35% free carried interest in the project, they should then focus on their Uranium Portfolio with the huge cashflows from Mansounia taking care of exploration and any further acquistion needs

 

[nomore4s]

I'm pretty sure SEMAFO is a similar 30Mt@1g/t Au + type operation

But there you go Cash Cost of $400 oz

That would give a margin of $400 oz, so for 1Moz's = $400m

I'd be very surprised if SEMAFO weren't sitting up and taking notice given that they are depleting they're reserves anf have a much much larger mkt cap, JV definately on the cards IMO, Burey should first earn up to their Maximum 85% interest and then farm out say 50%, retaing a 35% free carried interest in the project, they should then focus on their Uranium Portfolio with the huge cashflows from Mansounia taking care of exploration and any further acquistion needs

The original est on the SEMAFO site was 3.5g/t but like they said it was a fair bit lower in those 3 months, so even if you allowed a slightly higher cost, say $450 US/oz it would still be pretty good.

Sorry I forgot to mention I think that price was US$ - edited it in now.

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

This is my final view on BYR as it stands


36Mt's@ 0.8 g/tAu = 1moz's Au
Spot $800, Cash Cost $650, Thus Cash margin $150 oz

NPV = $150m - $10m (start up costs) = $140m

@ 70% (can go as high as 85%) = $98m
With current 45m shares on issue = $2 a share



The big differential for Mansounia is the existing mining and milling infrastructure less than 2kms to the North, combined with near surface mineralization = Very Low Cap Ex

As well as a Town about 3km’s to the East!

With the acquisition of the uranium portfolio to occur in about 1 month,

The rights issue to be announced shortly

A gold project that looks to be worth $100m to BYR on conservative estimates

And a booming gold price,

Downside risk seems fairly limited at current Mkt cap of $13m with $4m+ cash

 

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Well Current Mkt Cap is now $9m
With say $4.5m cash on hand

BYR has an EV of $4.5m for the rest of its projects


Ignoring the carnage (If you can) I was wondering what peoples thoughts were re the Gold results, got a wee bit of feedback but would like some more

 

[nomore4s]

unfortunately pretty bad timing with the annoucement and todays bloodbath, hard to tell what the market thought of the results.

 

[bigt]

Seems to have been hit harder than I would have expected, methinks ASF members have dumped a fair amount today. This is hurting me atm, but I'm thinking longer term, once the rights issue is announced it should get back above 30.

 

[Absolutely]

Well I'm buying at .22, I don't see a lot of sell volume left now.

Any reaction to the gold results has been absorbed in the total fallout

gold, options, uranium, cash, few shares on issue.

no brainer

 

[skegsi]

Only 20 odd trades - small amount of trading can move share price easily due to tight share registry.

Lets hope it happens in reverse in a couple of weeks

 

[skegsi]

Hopefull this is the bottom - 660USD/oz = 830Au/oz
So say you use $750Au/oz spot price in your calcs YT instead of $800, still gives $1.42 BYR (using $650 cash costs)
Lets just hope its the bottom

 

[greggy]

Well Current Mkt Cap is now $9m
With say $4.5m cash on hand

BYR has an EV of $4.5m for the rest of its projects


Ignoring the carnage (If you can) I was wondering what peoples thoughts were re the Gold results, got a wee bit of feedback but would like some more

A low grade deposit like this one wouldn't be profitable in Australia, but Africa's a completely different story. I feel that this project alone is worth more than the current market cap, but as I've said previously I bought in from the potential uranium projects (26 leases in all in SA and WA). I was going to buy more today, but ended up buying another 2 million HCY (again for their uranium project) at a bargain price this morning when the panic set in.
DYOR

 

[mobcat]

I bought in to BYR today, does anyone know if I qualify for the oppies I cant work it out? Thanks in advance.

 

[skegsi]

They haven't released the details. But if you're holding on the record date (which they haven't released yet) you're entitled. I think technically you have to be holding on ex-entitlement date, which is about 4 trading days prior to record date.