The ScoMo Government

[SirRumpole]

I would agree with you, but in recent years Labor have alienated the middle class and lower income voters ( increase pension age, remove franking credits to low income earners, decrying middle class welfare e.g childcare etc), so they somehow have to gain their trust back.
Both parties are struggling with the middle class voter, as they are the major tax base who pays for it all.

Personally I don't have a problem with taxpayers money going to people who need it, but the big spending items like aged care , NDIS , child care ,mental health etc are recurrent expenditure and you have to increase revenue to pay for them or go into debt. ScoMo and Friedburger have shown no inclination at all to increase revenue, so it's all basically debt that someone else has to repay.

So I'd have to say it's a pretty cynical election budget, and if they get back cuts or tax increases will inevitably have to be made.

 

[sptrawler]

Personally I don't have a problem with taxpayers money going to people who need it, but the big spending items like aged care , NDIS , child care ,mental health etc are recurrent expenditure and you have to increase revenue to pay for them or go into debt. ScoMo and Friedburger have shown no inclination at all to increase revenue, so it's all basically debt that someone else has to repay.

So I'd have to say it's a pretty cynical election budget, and if they get back cuts or tax increases will inevitably have to be made.

As has been said on the forum many many times, they are obviously going to inflate the problem away, the tax rates have been on a downward trajectory for 40 years.
So the obvious way to reduce debt, if you are not going to increase direct tax, is to bring about inflation which increases indirect tax and bracket creep.
Keeping the borders closed for another 12 months, will mean all this splash of cash will end up in our economy, so my guess is the Government will get a lot of it back.
The thing us who don't work have to be careful of, is the buying power of your savings will diminish, so the percentage of savings allocated to growth has to be monitored IMO.
I would be very surprised if inflation doesn't take off in the next two years, by taking off I mean it is starting from a low point, so any movement is a takeoff. ?
Just my opinion.

 

[Humid]

I would agree with you, but in recent years Labor have alienated the middle class and lower income voters ( increase pension age, remove franking credits to low income earners, decrying middle class welfare e.g childcare etc), so they somehow have to gain their trust back.
Both parties are struggling with the middle class voter, as they are the major tax base who pays for it all.

Scott Morrison scraps plans to raise pension age to 70

The Federal Government dumps a plan to make people wait until they turn 70 to be eligible for the aged pension.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Humid]

What is interesting is the 180 degree change in position by both parties, after the GFC Labor were adamant that the splash of cash was needed and the Coalition were saying it was irresponsible.
Now we have the complete reversal, just shows how little there is between them these days, as Humid says it is all about staying in the driver's seat.
Same as the budget, it is a social budget, very much like a budget Labor would put out, politics has gone very weird.
The line between left and right is becoming very close IMO, so a lot comes down to who can BS the best and resonate with the electorate.

Complete reversal .....you sound like the media you read
Have a look at the bloody figures in the last 7 years
Its nothing like labor spending get a ****ing grip

 

[sptrawler]

Complete reversal .....you sound like the media you read
Have a look at the bloody figures in the last 7 years
Its nothing like labor spending get a ****ing grip

I guess a bit of reflection on your part wouldn't hurt, oh I forgot you are one of the wealthy ones and before you say that it is Murdoch BS the post is from the Guardian. ?
Don't shoot the messenger.

Winning the wealthy and losing the workers: how Labor's Victorian vote transformed

Results from Australia’s most progressive state show the party is at risk of losing its heartland

www.theguardian.com

From the article:
“We have a problem with lower socio-economic voters.” That was the assessment of a senior Victorian Labor party source, who declined to be named, as he explained the lessons of the federal election from the most progressive state in the country.

And from a source you like to quote:

Can wealthy voters save Albanese and Labor?

Mapping electorates by wealth gives us a fascinating picture of who voted against Labor and what that means for the next election.

www.crikey.com.au

From the article:
However, the most interesting analysis appears to be occurring within the newly minted Labor leadership. In his opening address as opposition leader Anthony Albanese has signalled a pitch to wealthy voters, saying that the party has to “articulate a vision for how we increase wealth and not just share wealth”. It appears from this statement that Albanese believes that part of the reason Labor lost is that wealthy voters found their previous platform unappealing.

If we map the primary vote results against a number of key factors, a very different picture begins to emerge, and it has important ramifications for the next election.

Beginning with the wealthy, I decided to map the results against the top 20 wealthiest electorates, from highest to lowest, according to median house prices.

If anything, it seems that Labour’s message was marginally well received, or at least benign, in the wealthy electorates. On average, Labor received a swing of 1.54% towards them while the wealthy swung away from the LNP by 2.24%. The Coalition only managed to gain at the expense of Labor in four of the 20 seats, in Reid, Mackellar, Cook and Mitchell. Arguably, Labor’s platform, message and leadership didn’t scare off voters in these affluent areas.

 

[rederob]

Why is that, I said there is very little to differentiate between them, so the way the public view the budget should have little effect on the election. Personalities will probably decide the outcome, yet again IMO.

Morrison failed to stimulate the economy last year when it was needed.
He paid companies to not have employees productive.
He's now big spending when it's no longer necessary.
Labor did the opposite vis a vis the GFC so there is a gulf between them.

 

[sptrawler]

Morrison failed to stimulate the economy last year when it was needed.
He paid companies to not have employees productive.
He's now big spending when it's no longer necessary.
Labor did the opposite vis a vis the GFC so there is a gulf between them.

You're never going to sell that Rob, most people perceive last year as being locked up indoors, so stimulating an economy when everyone is indoors is difficult, they will perceive the government looked after the people last year.
The GFC was an overseas banking issue, revolving around the E.U banks buying consolidated debt obligations, which were full of crap U.S mortgages.
Labor ran with it, when it really had minimal effect on Australia, so people aren't going to think you are comparing apples with apples, but hey you carry on it is always a good read.

 

[rederob]

You're never going to sell that Rob, most people perceive last year as being locked up indoors, so stimulating an economy when everyone is indoors is difficult, they will perceive the government looked after the people last year.
The GFC was an overseas banking issue, revolving around the E.U banks buying consolidated debt obligations, which were full of crap U.S mortgages.
Labor ran with it, when it really had minimal effect on Australia, so people aren't going to think you are comparing apples with apples, but hey you carry on it is always a good read.

I don't really care what people think.
From a policy perspective Morrison's effort was a FAIL.
Infrastructure and construction activities were significantly unaffected by pandemic issues last year and could have had billions poured in. Investing in decent quarantining facilities across Australia would have been a practical measure, and here we are well over a year later and zip has been done. Nothing was done to remedy social housing needs either.
Fast tracking a shift to renewables was another option and revitalising our grid to accommodate the shift was also in play. But Morrison is a policy free zone.
I though McMahon was our worst ever PM, but I reckon Morrison has taken his mantle by totally screwing our relationship with China, and now wanting to double down.
I don't buy the "popularity" contest idea for determining election outcomes. Elections are never cut and dry, as a betting agency discovered in 2018. As I see it, they are decided at the margins, and factors that swing a seat one way in Victoria can swing it opposite in Queensland (and did in 2018).

 

[sptrawler]

Morrison failed to stimulate the economy last year when it was needed.
He paid companies to not have employees productive.
He's now big spending when it's no longer necessary.
Labor did the opposite vis a vis the GFC so there is a gulf between them.

I don't really care what people think.
From a policy perspective Morrison's effort was a FAIL.
Infrastructure and construction activities were significantly unaffected by pandemic issues last year and could have had billions poured in. Investing in decent quarantining facilities across Australia would have been a practical measure, and here we are well over a year later and zip has been done. Nothing was done to remedy social housing needs either.
Fast tracking a shift to renewables was another option and revitalising our grid to accommodate the shift was also in play. But Morrison is a policy free zone.
I though McMahon was our worst ever PM, but I reckon Morrison has taken his mantle by totally screwing our relationship with China, and now wanting to double down.
I don't buy the "popularity" contest idea for determining election outcomes. Elections are never cut and dry, as a betting agency discovered in 2018. As I see it, they are decided at the margins, and factors that swing a seat one way in Victoria can swing it opposite in Queensland (and did in 2018).

Your posts have a very Liberal flavour about them Rob, "He paid companies to not have employees productive", well I know a travel agent who employed three people managed to keep them on and get all the deposits etc back to people who had forward booked.
She has now reconfigured her business to local personalised tours and the three employees have found other work, without jobkeeper it would have been a disaster for her she would have had to claim bankruptcy.
My brother in law runs a small glazing business and it saved him and his two workers, the work has picked up in the last six months with the building stimulus.
As you say there is a big gulf between what happened last year and the GFC, the GFC was build a few school halls, stuff up putting in pink batts and send out a $900 cheque to welfare recipients, after that everyone go and get stuffed. Then it took 10 years for the ASX to get back to where it was when the GFC hit.
Now within 15months we are at an all time high and unemployment is already back to pre covid levels.
So yes Rob there is a lot of difference and hopefully Labor never go back to the Rudd, Gillard, Shorten attention seeking days, it impressed the wealthy but didn't do much for those who were thrown on the unemployment queue back then.
I'm sure Shortens Labor hacks will have the knife ready for Albo, if he fails to win office, then it will be back to normal for Labor IMO.
As for not caring what people think, I find that is often the case with people who wear compassion as a badge of honour, until they are required to show some.

 

[rederob]

Your posts have a very Liberal flavour about them Rob, "He paid companies to not have employees productive", well I know a travel agent who employed three people managed to keep them on and get all the deposits etc back to people who had forward booked.

If that business could not have handled that activity without Jobseeker they should not have been in it.

My brother in law runs a small glazing business and it saved him and his two workers, the work has picked up in the last six months with the building stimulus.

I made the point about stimulating construction - Jobkeeper was not necessary.

As you say there is a big gulf between what happened last year and the GFC, the GFC was build a few school halls, stuff up putting in pink batts and send out a $900 cheque to welfare recipients, after that everyone go and get stuffed. NOPE

You could try to get your facts straight about GFC measures:

• It involved expenditure of $10.4 billion through cash payments, a boost to the First Home Owners grant (via state/territory governments) and further investment through the Nation Building Funds;
• a $15.2 billion jointly funded package was announced in November 2008 by the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) which included measures to address housing, hospitals, and education;
• a further $4.7 billion through the Nation Building Plan was announced in December 2008 which included investment in road, rail, and the higher education sector;
• the $2.8 billion Homeowner Insulation Program (HIP) was part of the $3.9 billion Energy Efficient Homes Package (EEHP) announced on 3 February 2009;
• COAG endorsed the Nation Building Economic Stimulus Plan (NBESP) included the Nation Building and Jobs Plan (NBJP) involving expenditure of approximately $42 billion. The NBJP included the Building the Education Revolution (BER) Program, involving $14.6 billion for major and minor school infrastructure projects with $12.4 billion of this for Primary Schools for the 21st Century (P21). It also included a Social Housing package with $6.4 billion announced largely for the construction of new housing units;
• $8.5 billion for investment in road, rail, and port infrastructure, an initial investment of $4.7 billion in the National Broadband Network, $3.6 billion for development of clean energy technologies, and $5.8 billion for investments in the health, tertiary education, and research sectors were announced in the May 2009 Budget.

It's true that some dodgy operators did not properly train workers to install insulation, but that was actually a State building code responsibility which Murdoch's media beat up and turned into a federal problem. Hundreds more people have died as a result of Morrison's ineptitude in regard to ensuring the federal responsibility for quarantine arrangements were properly carried out.

As I said, there was a gulf between Morrison's covid largesse and Labor's GFC stimulus packages.

As for not caring what people think, I find that is often the case with people who wear compassion as a badge of honour, until they are required to show some.

Thinking and caring are different matters. I care about ensuring policies are fit for purpose, and that requires thinking them through.

 

[sptrawler]

You sound like you should be voting Liberal Rob, maybe if Abbott was still there you would, he didn't have any time for leaners either.
If any PM was inept it was Rudd, as he is still showing and the very reason Labor have been in the wilderness for so long. He made the PM's office look like a sideshow in a circus. ?
At last the grass roots seem to be taking Labor back to its roots and the wallies that took over Labor, are getting the heave ho.
Only about 4 or 5 to go, wretched ghosts, oh I forgot the number one wretched ghost is sitting alongside his mate Kev waiting for Bill to join them.

 

[SirRumpole]

As has been said on the forum many many times, they are obviously going to inflate the problem away, the tax rates have been on a downward trajectory for 40 years.
So the obvious way to reduce debt, if you are not going to increase direct tax, is to bring about inflation which increases indirect tax and bracket creep.
Keeping the borders closed for another 12 months, will mean all this splash of cash will end up in our economy, so my guess is the Government will get a lot of it back.
The thing us who don't work have to be careful of, is the buying power of your savings will diminish, so the percentage of savings allocated to growth has to be monitored IMO.
I would be very surprised if inflation doesn't take off in the next two years, by taking off I mean it is starting from a low point, so any movement is a takeoff. ?
Just my opinion.

If the LNP really think that inflation and bracket creep is going to pay off $1 T debt, then they should release some data about what level of inflation they want and how long it's going to take.

It's all pie in the sky afaic , and in the immortal words of a certain film, "tell him he's dreaming" .

 

[SirRumpole]

Has anyone else detected an amount of friction between the Speaker and PM in Question Time recently ?

 

[PZ99]

Has anyone else detected an amount of friction between the Speaker and PM in Question Time recently ?

Fairest and most competent speaker I've ever seen. Should be PM

 

[SirRumpole]

Fairest and most competent speaker I've ever seen. Should be PM

Could do a lot worse, even though he was a member of the IPA.

Young and deluded perhaps.

 

[IFocus]

Has anyone else detected an amount of friction between the Speaker and PM in Question Time recently ?

Yes, as speakers go he is very fair some thing most governments hate particularly LNP governments.

 

[PZ99]

This budget to gain inflation = higher interest rates... on a trillion $ debt. Scares the crap out of me.

Commodities repaired the budget last time... but we are rapidly running out of customers.

 

[basilio]

Lest we Forget. The legacy of Christian Porter as Minister and the Scomo governments determined defense of Robo Debt over many years.

The $112m referred to is the interest on the monies repaid. The full figure is at least $1.76B.

Court approves robodebt $112 million settlement payments

Luke Henriques-Gomes ​

The federal court has approved a $112 million settlement between the Commonwealth and the victims of the Coalition’s robodebt scheme after what a judge called a “shameful chapter” in public administration.​

Handing down his judgment on Friday, Justice Bernard Murphy criticised the federal government for a “massive failure”, saying the court had heard “heartwrenching” stories of pain and anguish from victims of the Centrelink debt recovery scheme.​

Under the robodebt scheme, which ran between 2015 and November 2019, the federal government unlawfully raised $1.76bn in debts against 443,000 people, the court was told.​

Murphy said the government had pursued around 381,000 people, unlawfully recovering $751m, including through “private debt collectors”, and the court heard one mother link her son’s suicide to the debt recovery program.​

​

Murphy said:​

​

The proceeding has exposed a shameful chapter in the administration of the Commonwealth social security system and a massive failure of public administration.​

​

Murphy said it should have been “obvious” to the senior public servants who designed the scheme that the income averaging method was “unreliable”.​

​

Coronavirus Australia live: woman’s body found in Victoria flood waters; Four Corners QAnon episode to air Monday

Follow updates live

www.theguardian.com

​

​

 

[basilio]

A clearer explanation of the Federal Judges assessment of the Robo debt debacle.

In my view the most contemptible part of the whole process was the relentless refusal of the Minister in charge (Christian Porter) and the Federal Government as a whole to quickly realise this was both practically wrong and an illegal action. It would not be hard to pull up the years of dispute around this piece of merde. But it does destroy the credibility of all the participants.

Robodebt condemned as a 'shameful chapter' in withering assessment by federal court judge

Federal Court Justice Bernard Murphy delivers a scathing assessment of the unlawful Robodebt recovery scheme, calling it a "massive failure in public administration" of Australia's social security scheme.

www.abc.net.au

 

[basilio]

I wonder if there will ever be any investigation into the legalities of Cabinet Ministers benefiting from government grants ?
Perhaps a start could be made with Angus Taylor. Consider

From the time Angus Taylor entered parliament in September 2013, companies & organisations the Taylor family have managed, directed or are directly associated with have benefited from over $93,515,673 in federal & state government funds.

Check it out. An exceptionally detailed account of who got the bucks, how and what for.

The Luck Of The Taylors | Dingo News

From Twitter with @jommy_tee #grassgate #watergate #auspol #grantgate With all the recent talk of Angus Taylor and his brother Richard and the alleged poisoning of native vegetation, (charges withdrawn) it’s easy to suspect the Taylor family are being victimised. After all, they are viewed by...

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