BIN - Bingo Industries

[System]

Bingo Industries is a leading waste management and recycling company operating predominantly in New South Wales. The Company is a vertically integrated waste management operator having capabilities across the waste collection, processing, separation and recycling components of the waste value chain.

The Company's operations include a network of nine strategically located resource recovery and recycling centres in New South Wales, a modern fleet of 158 collection vehicles, and a bin manufacturing and supply operation.

In FY16, Bingo generated pro forma revenue of $143.0 million and pro forma EBITDA of $36.4 million.

It is anticipated that BIN will list on the ASX during May 2017.

https://www.bingoindustries.com.au

 

[peter2]

BIN was a very successful float in early 2017 as the price gained >100% in the following 18 months.
Since then, the price has fallen considerably with the market selloff, Sep - Dec 2018. Price has bounced off the recent low and is now starting to look more bullish.

The chart below is part of a research project and should not be considered a recommendation to buy this stock. If you want to read more about the project log in to read the P2 Weekly Portfolio thread.

Setup: BO-NH after a series of higher lows (daily chart). One HL weekly chart.
Grade B due to recent huge selloff.
Buy: 2.29, iSL 1.95, let it go, trail stop

 

[just_jay]

I like the increased vol at resistance today, also BO with HL. Watch the 1H earnings due sometime next week.

 

[debtfree]

The market certainly punished BIN this morning after their report/announcement.

 

[Miner]

BIN was a very successful float in early 2017 as the price gained >100% in the following 18 months.
Since then, the price has fallen considerably with the market selloff, Sep - Dec 2018. Price has bounced off the recent low and is now starting to look more bullish.

The chart below is part of a research project and should not be considered a recommendation to buy this stock. If you want to read more about the project log in to read the P2 Weekly Portfolio thread.

Setup: BO-NH after a series of higher lows (daily chart). One HL weekly chart.
Grade B due to recent huge selloff.
Buy: 2.29, iSL 1.95, let it go, trail stop

View attachment 92235

Good morning @peter2
With the 45% slump this morning, following result, would you please pass a commentary ?
Regards

 

[debtfree]

Just part of business @peter2 as you have mentioned before. I remember you saying you get one or two every so often, we must take the bad with the good and move on. Thanks for your charts.

 

[bigdog]

Good morning @peter2
With the 45% slump this morning, following result, would you please pass a commentary ?
Regards Miner

Motley Fool reports
https://www.fool.com.au/2019/02/18/down-48-why-investors-dumped-bingo-shares-today/

Down 48%: Why investors dumped BINGO shares today
James Mickleboro | February 18, 2019

The BINGO Industries Ltd (ASX: BIN) share price has had a shockingly bad start to the week.

In early trade the waste management company’s shares are down 43% to $1.30. At one stage the Bingo share price was down as much as 48% to an all-time low of $1.20.

Why is the BINGO share price in the dumps today?
This morning the company released a market update which revealed that it has made a sharp downgrade to its full year earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) guidance.

Instead of its prior guidance of $108 million to $112 million in underlying EBITDA, the company now expects underlying EBITDA to be in the range of $92 million to $96 million in FY 2019.

This is an 11% to 18% downgrade and will mean underlying EBITDA is flat on the prior corresponding period.

Why has it downgraded its guidance?
Although BINGO’s post-collections and Toro business units have performed in-line with expectations during the first half of FY 2019, management expects a weaker second half.

This is due to a faster than anticipated softening in multi-dwelling residential construction activity across its key markets, the decision to not lift prices in FY 2019, and the reconfiguration of its development projects.

Management explained that volumes in its Building & Demolition (B&D) collections business were above the previous corresponding period during the first half but have not grown as much as initially forecast. Furthermore, competition in the B&D collections market has put downward pressure on pricing, impacting the company’s margins.

In respect to price increases, management has decided to delay its price increases following the introduction of the Queensland waste levy in order to ensure its customers received only one price increase during the year. It will not implement a price increase until FY 2020 and will absorb the increased costs for the whole of FY 2019.

BINGO’s managing director and chief executive officer, Daniel Tartak, admitted that this was disappointing, but remains positive on the company’s outlook.

He said: “While we have seen headwinds in some of our key markets in FY19 we expect the construction market to remain strong, with overall volumes of construction activity in NSW and Victoria of over $130 billion.”

Before adding: “FY20 will be a transformational year for BINGO as we achieve several key milestones in our redevelopment program, including the commencement of operations at our new recycling and landfill asset, Patons Lane.”

 

[peter2]

Good morning @peter2
With the 45% slump this morning, following result, would you please pass a commentary ?
Regards

Yes, I normally get one huge disappointment and several smaller disappointments each year. That's with a 12 position portfolio. A 40 position portfolio is going to get many more disappointments, but each position is much smaller. This hit from BIN may cost the portfolio a 3R loss that's only 0.8%. Had this position been in my own portfolio a 3R loss would have been -3%.

Please note that I did grade BIN as a B grade opportunity due to the steepness of the recent down trend. (I am monitoring the performance of the A graders vs the B graders and I may show their relative performance in the future.)

Oh and I did know that I was buying this before it's scheduled report. I accepted the risk that the report may move the price in either direction.

How I would handle BIN from here (pm 18th Feb). The low is 1.20 and I'll wait until late in the trading day to see if the low price attracts any buyers and closes well above the low. If price is going to close off the low, I won't sell and place my exit stop at today's low (1.20). If price closes near the low I'll exit just before the close or first thing next morning.

 

[Miner]

View attachment 92273

Yes, I normally get one huge disappointment and several smaller disappointments each year. That's with a 12 position portfolio. A 40 position portfolio is going to get many more disappointments, but each position is much smaller. This hit from BIN may cost the portfolio a 3R loss that's only 0.8%. Had this position been in my own portfolio a 3R loss would have been -3%.

Please note that I did grade BIN as a B grade opportunity due to the steepness of the recent down trend. (I am monitoring the performance of the A graders vs the B graders and I may show their relative performance in the future.)

Oh and I did know that I was buying this before it's scheduled report. I accepted the risk that the report may move the price in either direction.

How I would handle BIN from here (pm 18th Feb). The low is 1.20 and I'll wait until late in the trading day to see if the low price attracts any buyers and closes well above the low. If price is going to close off the low, I won't sell and place my exit stop at today's low (1.20). If price closes near the low I'll exit just before the close or first thing next morning.

Thanks @peter2 and @debtfree for you reply.
Yes, this slump is basically driven by expectation vs reality so more of phsychological than statistical pattern. I agree.
Hope you have not inucrred on the heavy loss today and the example of ' how I handle was more of a generic statement' .
THe price is hovering around $1.265 after initial drop of $1.2. Technically it is a still good stock (I believe so wait and see.
DNH yet.

 

[just_jay]

View attachment 92273

How I would handle BIN from here (pm 18th Feb). The low is 1.20 and I'll wait until late in the trading day to see if the low price attracts any buyers and closes well above the low. If price is going to close off the low, I won't sell and place my exit stop at today's low (1.20). If price closes near the low I'll exit just before the close or first thing next morning.

Peter, I might not have bought into BIN, but I appreciate you detailing the thought process you are putting into selling vs holding.

 

[peter2]

Thank-you @just_jay.
My thoughts are based on an active trading approach. I can't consider myself an investor. If I was an investor I'd be all over the latest update and reading between the lines. It seems to me that today's selling is totally exaggerated. I know it's best if I follow my own trading plans.

If the market thinks BIN is garbage, then I won't argue.

 

[Miner]

Thank-you @just_jay.
My thoughts are based on an active trading approach. I can't consider myself an investor. If I was an investor I'd be all over the latest update and reading between the lines. It seems to me that today's selling is totally exaggerated. I know it's best if I follow my own trading plans.

If the market thinks BIN is garbage, then I won't argue.

Pete,
Your last line of the above posting was aparently a funny one but In reality a serious one with double sword.
Bingo is in the business of waste aka garbage - so it is a true reflection . They have put the stock code also as BIN - waste bin or garbage bin ??
If on chart, Bingo appears to be a garbage for you and market - that is a bad sign for the holders who bought yesterday or before for sure .
Without being a chartist, what I am trying to correlate the slump in building industry, residential properties and hence garbage /waste collection business becoming very competitive in two major Eastern states. The recent statement from McGrath CEO is important to note.

CWY has a high horse power and got enhanced after TOX takeover. Veolia is also in the market. That leaves BIN to do lot of effort in getting good chunk of market share. Tomorrow would be another interesting day for BIN. I have had a buy order in the morning and reduced it by another 15% to be reviewed on Tuesday's market.

 

[barney]

It seems to me that today's selling is totally exaggerated.

Agree. Looking at the Ultra high Volume around the dump lows it looks a bit like a bit of a snatch and grab by some heavy hitters.

Over $70 million worth of shares traded today That's even more than I have in my trading account

Could be wrong bit it wont surprise me to see this back over $1.50 in a short space of time once all the "milking" is finished.

 

[peter2]

With the price of BIN at an all time low, every stock holder is losing capital on that holding.

Regarding today's action, if the selling was irrational and over the top then investors would have stepped up in the afternoon and the price would have closed >1.25. They didn't, price closed on a new low. Price looks likely to be going lower tomorrow.

After today BIN is totally off my radar and you won't be seeing anymore comments from me. I look forward to reading the opinions of the contrarian investors.

 

[Ann]

With the price of BIN at an all time low, every stock holder is losing capital on that holding.

Regarding today's action, if the selling was irrational and over the top then investors would have stepped up in the afternoon and the price would have closed >1.25. They didn't, price closed on a new low. Price looks likely to be going lower tomorrow.

After today BIN is totally off my radar and you won't be seeing anymore comments from me. I look forward to reading the opinions of the contrarian investors.

Peter2

I am on a self inflicted silence from ASF as I am trying to re-create my trading style to short term from long term and I don't need/want distractions. I flick in occasionally to see the action, I always read your comments when I see them. This is a real shock as most of BIN's indicators have been in positive territory.
The only two indicators which appear negative are the NVI and Twiggs money flow. However both were rising.
The only thing I have seen is China is saying they are not taking any more recyclables. This is why I am avoiding Sims Metals SGM, although the TMF and NVI are still OK but there is so much more to choose from.

My first reaction today BIN was it is oversold because it was on the first page of the FinRev saying it was a loser because of the housing downturn. Housing is not actually in such a bad downturn so it may be worth watching BIN, it may not be a real falling knife. However I have no desire recommending an attempted catch of a falling knife. If I was holding I think I would wait. I would normally flick a falling knife immediately but I am wondering if the AFR had too much of an impact.

 

[tech/a]

BIN

Just had a look at the 15 min chart to see if there was any support.
Unfortunately only supply certainly going into close .
Generally a huge move up or down like this will lead to an inside day
next day.
My low target based upon an ABC move it 75c.
This Will take a long long tome to fill the gap.

 

[bigdog]

https://www.theage.com.au/business/...oup-bingo-s-market-value-20190218-p50ygo.html

Bin baron loses $100m in one day in big dump
By Nick Toscano
February 18, 2019

Less than two years ago, Daniel Tartak transformed a Sydney skip business founded by his father into a half-a-billion-dollar family payday when the company, Bingo Industries, listed on the Australian Securities Exchange.

The 33-year-old's personal 17 per cent stake in the waste management group helped catapult him onto the 2017 Financial Review Young Rich List with an estimated net wealth of $130 million.

But on Monday, the company became something of a share-market dumpster fire. Shares in Bingo Industries fell nearly 50 per cent by the end of the day, wiping $658 million from the company's market value.

Tartak's own holding, which had grown to more than $220 million in recent years, lost $100 million in a single day.

Investors savaged the stock after Mr Tartak told them Bingo Industries was the latest casualty of the nation's rapidly slowing property market, which had dented demand for Bingo's construction and demolition services.

The stock closed at $1.17, down 49.1 per cent from $2.30 the previous session. This took the stock below the company's listing 2017 listing price of $1.80.

Bingo said its underlying earnings were now expected to be "broadly in line" with the previous year. It had previously forecast underlying earnings growth of between 15 and 20 per cent.

Mr Tartak said there had been a faster-than-anticipated softening in multi-dwelling residential construction activity across the group's key markets in Victoria and NSW.

Sydney-based Bingo is a leading provider of waste collection and processing in the building sector, including for the demolition and construction of residential and commercial building projects, and public infrastructure projects.

"While we have seen some headwinds in some of our key markets in financial year 2019, we expect construction to remain strong, with overall volumes of construction activity in NSW and Victoria of over $130 million," Mr Tartak said.

I think what Bingo is telling us is that overall the property cycle is weak and it's going to remain weak.

"We remain committed to our five-year strategy and our focus for the coming year will continue to be on optimising our network of waste assets."

In the wake of damning revelations at the national banking services royal commission, and a push by financial regulators, major banks have put the brakes on new lending and contributed to a slowdown in the housing market after a decade-long boom.

The downturn in the property and construction market has been inflicting damage on the profits and outlook for a number of Australian businesses, including those in the building materials and retail sectors.

"I think what Bingo is telling us is that overall the property cycle is weak and it's going to remain weak," said Mathan Somasundaram, market portfolio strategist at stockbroker Blue Ocean Equity.

 

[PZ99]

I'm tipping some beer money in - it's still making money. If I was already holding I would've sold on open and bought back in during the close.

 

[tech/a]

I am on a self inflicted silence from ASF as I am trying to re-create my trading style to short term from long term and I don't need/want distractions.

Why
You have around 100% hit rate?
I don't understand.
If I could emulate that I wouldn't
be looking ANYWHERE!

Hint
Using oscillators for short term trading will
be dangerous to your Capital.

 

[Ann]

Why
You have around 100% hit rate?
I don't understand.
If I could emulate that I wouldn't
be looking ANYWHERE!

Hint
Using oscillators for short term trading will
be dangerous to your Capital.

I have more time now I have retired to focus on stocks, sitting in stocks for years is not a huge challenge and dare I say, slightly boring!

I have much to learn about short term trading and may end up with a fail rate that makes me quickly lose interest but in the meantime I am going to have a crack at it and see how I go.

What oscillators do you suggest I avoid for short term trading?