RAU - Republic Gold

RAU - REPUBLIC GOLD LTD

hello all - here's another interesting micro-cap to watch.

Tungsten/Moly/Gold play with several announcements coming over the next two months...

Getting a lot of HC attention - and will require a speeding ticket or ann pretty soon at this rate.

Keep it on the radar.

Has FPO and options RAUO (2.5 cent ex. Nov08)

Cheers
-Cali

I mentioned this stock in the "Potential Trend Reversals" thread a couple of days ago and since then it has consolidated and is looking better than ever. Its up 27% today again, and oppies up 54%, with nicely increasing volume.

The company got a speeding ticket this morning and said it knew nothing to explain the rise in SP. Luckily for me I had already sold at its peak but I'll be watching to see if I should buy back in.

Evidently I wasn't watching carefully enough...its back up by 20% and oppies by 28% already. I know they have tungsten interests, but would somebody mind doing a but of fundy analysis of this stock to see what might be going on and what we might expect from it please?

thanks.

moses said:

I mentioned this stock in the "Potential Trend Reversals" thread a couple of days ago and since then it has consolidated and is looking better than ever. Its up 27% today again, and oppies up 54%, with nicely increasing volume.

Click to expand...

Busted over 3 cents. Has a three month reversal pattern pointing at +6 cents. Volume on the breakout looks very healthy. Fundamentally the move is connected to option to purchase Mt Carbine tungsten mine in Queensland and succesful exploration for tunsten? on other Queensland leases. Throw in a major gold project 500-750,000 ounces and a shares in a SA U project all for about A$13 million. Looks very interesting.

I got some RAU as an entitlement from another company (can't remember who though) but had an unmarketable lot, anyway I noticed the spike up during May then bought some more at about 2c to make up a saleable lot. Looks as if there is some intrest on ASF and the SP has increased on good volume so I might just keep them a bit longer. porkpie

Technicals on the daily chart now indicate a breakout from a base W formation. The OBV pattern on the chart below indicates that the rush of buying started 6 days ago. The break on very hi volume above 3.3 clearly shows a trend reversal and the pattern points to +6 cents.

Would be interesting to see how it holds for the closing time period....
If it holds 0.033, that would be good.....

Re: RAU - Republic Gold-Valuation

Issued shares 431,000,000 (and 151,000,000 oppies ex @ 2.5 in late 2008) trading at 3 cents for an undiluted valuation of A$12,930,000.

Operations run from reg'd office located in Mareeba which sits in the midst of most of current leases and operations. Palmer River goldfield is nearby. Most of the current interest IMHO stems from the fact that RAU has ramped up its Tungsten exploration program in this district. It has a number of large tenements that surround the Vital Metals Tunsten Mine (under development and valued at $75,000,000).

Several months ago RAU announced that they had identified an anomalous structure called anomaly B which RAU claimed about the same size as Vital Metals anomaly but with higher grades indicated from surface sampling. At that time RAU completed a nightime reconnaisance to identify the extent of the surface expression of the tungsten ore zone (scheelite/tungsten glows under ultra violet light). From these various exploration efforts RAU identified a target length of 2,000 meters x 1,000m (several months ago) and since then that length has substantially expanded to now include approximately 4,000 m x 1,100m AND three other new zones one of which has both molybdenum and scheelite over 400 meters. The interesting point here is that the target zones and their numbers get bigger and bigger and the potential richness has increased with the discovery of moly in one of the zones.

Then throw in the fact that RAU now has an option over the old Mt Carbine Tungsten Mine which is a fully developed mine with declines into 7,000,000 tonnes (non jorc subject to verification)) of ore containing tungsten. On surface they have 670,000 tonnes of open pittable ore ready for production along with over 1,000,000 tonnes of tailings containing tungsten. The mine produced 13.5 million tonnes for 2,000,000 MTU's of tungsten.

One MTU is currently worth US$250 / A$287. Drawing a long bow we might still have at least 1,136,300 MTU's = A$326,000,000 plus exploration potential. Assume the mine produces 1,000,000 - 1,500,000 tpa = 148,150 - 222,225 MTU's pa = A$42,500,000 - 63,750,000 pa. There is also a rock crushing business operating from Mt Carbine that comes with the deal and it is anticipated to cover current office and management costs. This also provides valuable infrastucture of trucks and some crushing equipment that can serve as the starting point for much larger mining and milling operations in the area for both gold and tungsten.

There is upside for exploration success plus production from Mt carbine which values RAU at 2 x Vital Metals $75,000,000 longer term BUT short term say 1/3 of this valuation = A$50,000,000 or 11.6 cents per share.

RAU gold assets are substantial. They have a number of resources around Mareeba and nearby Palmer River that are quoted at around 500,000 ounces of measured, indicated and inferred resources of around 2 g/t most of which is near surface and open pittable and will be drilled shortly to increase tonnage and measured grade and resource. Say we value this resource at A$20 oz x 500,000 with potential of 750,000 ozs = $10,000,000 - 15,000,000 or 2.3 - 3.45 cents per share.

U assets and other leases not valued at this time which may include recovery of funds from Luzon.

Cash is about $3,500,000

Valuation is 13.9 - 15.05 cents per share.

Current price is 3 cents. Upside potential on shares is 465 - 501%. Potential on oppies (from 1.7 cents and 1.3 cent premium) is 741 - 808%.

Comments?

Hi Sydneysider,

Great write up…...

The reason this caught my radar was the increased volume which lead me to some other news on RAU movements.

Republic Gold announced that it has signed a 3- month exclusive option agreement to review the assets of the Nicholson group of companies, which include the mining leases that cover the former Mt Carbine tungsten mine, with a view to making an offer to purchase these assets. The company will pay $15,000 and issue 500,000 shares for this exclusive option.

And on the 07/06/07

Republic Gold has completed its initial field programme on the new Whumbal West tungsten prospect in Far North Queensland. The Whumbal West scheelite-bearing prospect has been sampled over a strike length of 3,500m on 7 sample lines across 1,100m of the mineralisation covering the two zones of mineralisation that had been previously identified - see the plan on the following page. A total of 372 gridline soil samples, along with some additional crosscheck soil and rockchip samples, were taken which have been dispatched to the assay laboratory and results are expected in 6 to 8 weeks.

So an ann should be coming out soon with some new results. I think this has a big upside at 3c...

motion said:

Hi Sydneysider,

Great write up…...

The reason this caught my radar was the increased volume which lead me to some other news on RAU movements.

Republic Gold announced that it has signed a 3- month exclusive option agreement to review the assets of the Nicholson group of companies, which include the mining leases that cover the former Mt Carbine tungsten mine, with a view to making an offer to purchase these assets. The company will pay $15,000 and issue 500,000 shares for this exclusive option.

And on the 07/06/07

Republic Gold has completed its initial field programme on the new Whumbal West tungsten prospect in Far North Queensland. The Whumbal West scheelite-bearing prospect has been sampled over a strike length of 3,500m on 7 sample lines across 1,100m of the mineralisation covering the two zones of mineralisation that had been previously identified - see the plan on the following page. A total of 372 gridline soil samples, along with some additional crosscheck soil and rockchip samples, were taken which have been dispatched to the assay laboratory and results are expected in 6 to 8 weeks.

So an ann should be coming out soon with some new results. I think this has a big upside at 3c...

Click to expand...

U are right about the upside. Since this report they have found three additional tungsten zones of which at least one contains moly.

motion said:

Hi Sydneysider,

Great write up…...

The reason this caught my radar was the increased volume which lead me to some other news on RAU movements.

Republic Gold announced that it has signed a 3- month exclusive option agreement to review the assets of the Nicholson group of companies, which include the mining leases that cover the former Mt Carbine tungsten mine, with a view to making an offer to purchase these assets. The company will pay $15,000 and issue 500,000 shares for this exclusive option.

And on the 07/06/07

Republic Gold has completed its initial field programme on the new Whumbal West tungsten prospect in Far North Queensland. The Whumbal West scheelite-bearing prospect has been sampled over a strike length of 3,500m on 7 sample lines across 1,100m of the mineralisation covering the two zones of mineralisation that had been previously identified - see the plan on the following page. A total of 372 gridline soil samples, along with some additional crosscheck soil and rockchip samples, were taken which have been dispatched to the assay laboratory and results are expected in 6 to 8 weeks.

So an ann should be coming out soon with some new results. I think this has a big upside at 3c...

Click to expand...

U.S. Geological Survey identifies the geology at Mt. Carbine and states that these type of deposits could hold hundreds of millions of tonnes of low grade ore. They go on to state that current resources are (my comment, cannot construe as jorc) 13,000,000 tonnes @ .1% WO3 with a richer core of 8,400,000 tonnes @ .12% WO3. Historically the mine produced 16,694 tonnes of tungsten concentrate @ a grade of 68.8% and in its final year of operation produced 1,646 tonnes @ 68.2% of tungsten concentrate. Reduced to to-days numbers and pricing that is equivalent to about US$42,000,000 in annualized revenues IF the production rate picks up from the last year of prior production

We now have a major breakout on the chart. Projection on this formation points to +6 cents. IMHO fundamentals indicate a much higher price level. See prior comments. Good luck to all longs.

agreed - looks like speculation over Carbine/updates etc. is taking place earlier than I thought.

My original thoughts were that my entry may have been too early, but todays action suggests this one has caught sufficient market attention to keep it bouyant above the 3+ level.

Cheers
-Cali

Caliente said:

agreed - looks like speculation over Carbine/updates etc. is taking place earlier than I thought.

My original thoughts were that my entry may have been too early, but todays action suggests this one has caught sufficient market attention to keep it bouyant above the 3+ level.

Cheers
-Cali

Click to expand...

I suspect that the frenetic buying that kicked off two hours may be connected to the pending assays from the Whumbal West prospect. Recall that detailed sampling on this prospect started a few months ago. At that time RAU alluded to the fact that the size of the target zone was about the same as the nearby Vital Metals tungsten prospect but of a higher grade. Vital has a resource that is around 13,000,000 tonnes at a grade of .35% WO3. Since that time the target zone under sampling has expanded PLUS four other zones of mineralization has been identified AND one of those zones carries moly combined with tungsten.

IF the grades are high and potentially very large then it might be possible to open pit the resource and ship the ore 45 kms South to Mt. Carbine for treament. IMHO it might be possible to blend the hi and low grade ore found at Mt Carbine. These are my speculations and may sound premature as Whumbal West has not yet been drilled BUT whatever is going on here is very positive for further appreciation in the RAU SP. IF the assays from the Whumbal sampling are positive i believe that the RAU SP should run to much higher ground possibly to +6 cents.

nice - cheers for that. I've actually had a look at Vital in the past. Seems like a very reasonable although short-life project they're getting going over there - last I checked they were sorting out some environmental approvals and economic factors. In fact if it really is close to Vitals deposits, Vital may even make a play for RAU's tungsten somewhere down the line in order to extend the life of the mine. This is pure speculation.

But you've got me excited over a new "med/hi-grade" tungsten prospect - I was just hoping for a go ahead on Carbine!

edit - you might want to have a look over in Outstanding Breakout Alerts as well. I'm bollocks on the technical side of things and the authority (in my mind =) ) Kennas has put up a chart on the matter.

Hey guys, what are you making of RAU up from 0.29 yesterday to 0.04.. and with 44 million shares tradded this morning something is cooking... maybe the Mt Carbine tungsten mine is going forward any comments...

i'm very new at this but something fishing going on with the buyers and sellers....11 mil buy orders on one side, and one mil on the sell side...yet it never gets knocked over...and 1 mill sell always maintained even though about 60 mil shares have changed hands gradually... then all of a sudden11 mil buyers get knocked over

kanaida said:

i'm very new at this but something fishing going on with the buyers and sellers....11 mil buy orders on one side, and one mil on the sell side...yet it never gets knocked over...and 1 mill sell always maintained even though about 60 mil shares have changed hands gradually... then all of a sudden11 mil buyers get knocked over

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Hi Yep, I think you are right.. it looks like a Pump and Dump day .. Kennas you where right watch out for this one... was really looking forward to some news on the mine... But you never know still might be something in the wind..

you'd better believe that when a small cap goes ballistic there will be DT P&D activity. This is where the money is made.

As an investor I make my money by holding through the swells, although a clear case can be made for the DT activity as well, the daily swing on this one today has been quite incredible to watch.