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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

Remember the seasons of the market unfold in their own time
Each season sows the seeds of the next

Winter is the beginning
BECAUSE it is an end...

Enough work YET ?

motorway
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Here is OCT 97
B% fell to 13 at the bottom

What was the story then at the bottom ?
What was the sentiment ?

DYOR

The future is not the past
one day the world might really end

RISK is always present

motorway
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

IFocus For this reason alone research should be carried out by harpooning Japanese whalers (humanly of course I believe its painless) just to see how small their brains really are............

Ha ha ha,
yep could not agree more!


XAO still think we are at the mercy of the US as sentiment is ruling our market currently IMHO all down to Monday's US market then we will follow for a little while yet down or side ways is my view, no trades until I see a pattern plenty of cockroach's to come yet I expect.

Tonight the us will tell us what the feeling is. If the xao breaks this low then look out. it would then appear that we are in a bear market! bargins will become a lot cheaper!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I enclose two charts.

The first is a monthly xao which shows the fibmeister, fibonnaci's retracement from recent highs to 1987.

Its interesting that the August 2007 lows were at the 23% retracement level.

Who knows where our market will now settle
the 38% at 4700
the 50% at 4000 a nice round number
or at 62% at 3320

The 3320 would be a good support resistance line, as the market lurked about this level between March 2000 and June 2002, then it fell 900 points before before the last bull run began in 2003.

The second is a monthly semilog chart which shows the magnitude of the rise from the lows of 1982 to the highs of 1987, a fivefold increase from under 500 to 2306. Thus it is not inconceivable that similar rises or retracements may occur in the future.

Looking at these charts over the weekend, I've become very very bearish on our market, very.

gg
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Seems we now have advisors encourage people to bail!


INVESTORS are being warned to batten down the hatches as the boom times end and hard times loom.

One financial planner is even warning of a depression as others also quickly move their client's money out of shares and into safe haven investments such as government bonds and term deposits.

For money invested through superannuation, some advisers are telling people to move out of balanced and growth options and in to cash and capital-stable strategies.

"We have told our clients to expect a depressed period lasting many years," ClientCare financial planner Bruce Reid said.

"Returns won't continue to be strong as they have been for just about all of most people's adult lives," Mr Reid warned. "We are approaching the end of a long boom.

"We are transitioning from the end of one cycle to the next and it will catch a lot of people unaware.

"People will have to take a lot more interest in their money if they are to make the most of it," he said.

Shares and real estate will both be affected and he is advising people to invest in government bonds and highly rated fixed interest securities.
Click to expand...

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,23119439-14334,00.html
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Garpal Gumnut said:
I enclose two charts.

The first is a monthly xao which shows the fibmeister, fibonnaci's retracement from recent highs to 1987.

Its interesting that the August 2007 lows were at the 23% retracement level.

Who knows where our market will now settle
the 38% at 4700
the 50% at 4000 a nice round number
or at 62% at 3320

The 3320 would be a good support resistance line, as the market lurked about this level between March 2000 and June 2002, then it fell 900 points before before the last bull run began in 2003.

The second is a monthly semilog chart which shows the magnitude of the rise from the lows of 1982 to the highs of 1987, a fivefold increase from under 500 to 2306. Thus it is not inconceivable that similar rises or retracements may occur in the future.

Looking at these charts over the weekend, I've become very very bearish on our market, very.

gg
Click to expand...

bear or bull, I love looking at long term charts like this. Unless you have really doggy stocks then where is all the gloom? I guess like me, being a trader many now have to turn into a hold and wait investor.

I suppose the real trick would be to try and build enough financial resources to benefit from market dips. When the dip keeps dipping, then there is a real problem with being able to keep up.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

numbercruncher said:
Seems we now have advisors encourage people to bail!




http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,23119439-14334,00.html
Click to expand...

Wonder when they are going to advise people to run on the banks and stash their cash under the mattress? Actually that would be a poor option given the predictions for inflation.

At least all the angst will lead to disenfranchised trader to pen the modern version of Waltzing Matilda....

'Once a disinterested Gen X'er, camped by an empty dam'
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Garpal Gumnut said:
I enclose two charts.

The first is a monthly xao which shows the fibmeister, fibonnaci's retracement from recent highs to 1987.

Its interesting that the August 2007 lows were at the 23% retracement level.gg
Click to expand...


It is also a note the August correction wasn`t a 23% retracement from highs.I`m sure you didn`t mean that though.?? were = are ???
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Bushman said:
Wonder when they are going to advise people to run on the banks and stash their cash under the mattress? Actually that would be a poor option given the predictions for inflation.
Click to expand...

I agree. Just more media scaremongering to pander to the public, painting the gloomiest picture possible by quoting "experts" to justify their agenda. Same thing happened during the Feb and Aug corrections last year, they sure panned out like the media said it would :rolleyes:

Fact is that no-one knows where things are, it's going to be the Wall St brokers and billionaires that decide where the market will go, not some "expert" mum and dad investors.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

numbercruncher said:
Seems we now have advisors encourage people to bail!




http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,23119439-14334,00.html
Click to expand...

I'm in love with that FP now. hahah But then the general public tend to believe that "economists" are generally right. So oh well...you are either a contrarian or a victim. Who do you want to be? :D

Though he didn't mention anything about ramping inflation and possible hedge against it by investing in precious metals or other commodities.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

M34N said:
Fact is that no-one knows where things are, it's going to be the Wall St brokers and billionaires that decide where the market will go, not some "expert" mum and dad investors.
Click to expand...


I wouldnt underestimate the Mums and Dads - Atleast a Trillion Dollars in Australian Super funds now, thats a serious serious amount of financial force.

What would you do, Close to retirement, relying on your Super and markets where like they are, youd either be very worried or heading for safe havens im sure.

Not so bad for us youngins still got decades to accumulate.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

One little thought I just had, many managed superfunds allow switch-overs between asset classes effective the first of the month, could there be a ship load of redemptions out of say Australian shares, Balanced funds etc to go into cash for Feb 1st, resulting in tons of selling this week ? :eek:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

numbercruncher said:
I wouldnt underestimate the Mums and Dads - Atleast a Trillion Dollars in Australian Super funds now, thats a serious serious amount of financial force.

What would you do, Close to retirement, relying on your Super and markets where like they are, youd either be very worried or heading for safe havens im sure.

Not so bad for us youngins still got decades to accumulate.
Click to expand...

well if i were close to retirement I would certainly be looking at the safe haven of a cash fund especially if interest rates are on the rise. Older people like certainty especially with no earning capacity. The whole point of a super fund is financial security when you can no longer work. The stock market doesn't really meet that requirement right now.

I don't mind the volatiliy but I would hate to have my life savings invested in the market right now.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Garpal Gumnut said:
I enclose two charts.

The first is a monthly xao which shows the fibmeister, fibonnaci's retracement from recent highs to 1987.

Its interesting that the August 2007 lows were at the 23% retracement level.

Who knows where our market will now settle
the 38% at 4700
the 50% at 4000 a nice round number
or at 62% at 3320

The 3320 would be a good support resistance line, as the market lurked about this level between March 2000 and June 2002, then it fell 900 points before before the last bull run began in 2003.

The second is a monthly semilog chart which shows the magnitude of the rise from the lows of 1982 to the highs of 1987, a fivefold increase from under 500 to 2306. Thus it is not inconceivable that similar rises or retracements may occur in the future.

Looking at these charts over the weekend, I've become very very bearish on our market, very.

gg
Click to expand...

:eek:

Garpal, you better put the charts away, or you may never invest again. :rolleyes:

Context is all important... but i'm sorry to say that aint it. ;) :2twocents

M34N said:
Fact is that no-one knows where things are, it's going to be the Wall St brokers and billionaires that decide where the market will go, not some "expert" mum and dad investors.
Click to expand...

Actually I find many mum and dad investory quite savy and modest about their life experiences re investing. I haven't seen too many panicking re the general market in Aus.

Investment success is more about psychology than economics. When you understand a bit about the psychology of people you can get a pretty good idea how people will react and therefore where the markets will go.

One of the best books I have read years ago is "Think and Grow Rich" by Napolean Hill. It's a simple little book, but it carries a powerful message to begin a successful life. You wil know when you have got it. Joe has it on special now.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

When is the next american Fed Meeting? Do you think they will follow up with another .5% cut so close after the last cut?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

kash said:
When is the next american Fed Meeting? Do you think they will follow up with another .5% cut so close after the last cut?
Click to expand...

Starts Tuesday US time and should make ann Wed afternoon.

I'm expecting them to cut 25 to 50 because the market is expecting it and seems to have factored it in and I don't think they will not want to dissapoint the market.

But just because I expect them to do what they usually do and react like they usually react doesn't mean that they might get their gut in knots with anxiety and procrastination and not do what they usually do as I expect they won't. :D
 
Re: XAO Analysis

What's with the sudden recovery? :eek:
Dare I say we're in for a green day?

I wish a trend could just be defined, bear or bull ... sick of this undecided fence nonsense :p:
 
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