WCL - Westside Corporation
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They have gone pretty hard and look to be taking a breather at the moment. Interesting one in that no idea how much 3p let alone 2p they may or may not have so at the highly speculative end of the CSG sector.
WCL has not established any gas reserves howvever they do have an estimated $21m in net cash which should enable them to evaluate its acreage and establish a reserve base.
■ spending $10m to earn 50% in three of SHG's Bowen Basin CSG projects
■ Indonesian JV with shareholder PT Bumi
WCL has not established any gas reserves howvever they do have an estimated $21m in net cash which should enable them to evaluate its acreage and establish a reserve base.
■ spending $10m to earn 50% in three of SHG's Bowen Basin CSG projects
■ Indonesian JV with shareholder PT Bumi
Starting to have a bit of a look at this one....
MC = $60 mill fully diluted (ord shares 74 mill + options 38.5 mill = 112.5mill @ 50cents)
Cash 30/9/08 $11.6mill (after cashburn of $4.5mill for qtr).
Fairly tightly held.
Own by farming in 50% of ATP 769P & ATP688P (via Sunshine Gas, now BG)
Release of restricted securities on 10 January 2009....mmm.....interesting!
(ordinary shares 13million, Mar 09 options 6.5mill + 800,000 incentive options).
No estimate of 2C given (contingent resources). Reserves statement 1st Qtr 09 (would be looking to get the sp over 50c for options to be in the money).
Have enough cash to drill 09 with exercise of options I would think.
Flow rate on #6R in ATP769P 28000 standard cubic feet / day.
I don't hold....any comments?
MC = $60 mill fully diluted (ord shares 74 mill + options 38.5 mill = 112.5mill @ 50cents)
Cash 30/9/08 $11.6mill (after cashburn of $4.5mill for qtr).
Fairly tightly held.
Own by farming in 50% of ATP 769P & ATP688P (via Sunshine Gas, now BG)
Release of restricted securities on 10 January 2009....mmm.....interesting!
(ordinary shares 13million, Mar 09 options 6.5mill + 800,000 incentive options).
No estimate of 2C given (contingent resources). Reserves statement 1st Qtr 09 (would be looking to get the sp over 50c for options to be in the money).
Have enough cash to drill 09 with exercise of options I would think.
Flow rate on #6R in ATP769P 28000 standard cubic feet / day.
I don't hold....any comments?
This flow rate is not all that flash 28000 standard cubic feet / day.
I should use it in context against other csg producers.
28000 is 28 mcfd. Qld Gas often flowed at 500 - 1000 mcfd
Qld Gas probably do have the best flows in the world though....for csg (per Richard Cottee...although he was perhaps biased).
I recall the prospectus on this saying they were hoping to acheive 600 PJ (from memory, don't quote me). At say 60c/GJ that is $360 mill worth....current Market cap $60 mill.
Some upside if reserves come in well in this qtr.
I should use it in context against other csg producers.
28000 is 28 mcfd. Qld Gas often flowed at 500 - 1000 mcfd
Qld Gas probably do have the best flows in the world though....for csg (per Richard Cottee...although he was perhaps biased).
I recall the prospectus on this saying they were hoping to acheive 600 PJ (from memory, don't quote me). At say 60c/GJ that is $360 mill worth....current Market cap $60 mill.
Some upside if reserves come in well in this qtr.
Hi Grace - As I've said elsewhere (and been meaning to post here) - I've been having a bit of a look at WCL too.
As you say the flow rates they have reported have been a little underwhelming - and that hole seems to have had plenty of time to dewater etc. the interesting thing for me is that they've drilled a few other exploration wells - maybe 3 or 4 more from memory - but, unless I've missed something, they have been very quiet on the reporting front since inital flows in july really...which leads me to wonder if the other holes aren't producing much gas either?
They only have a couple of farm-in tenements too - so I think 600PJ is a long way off... maybe impossible.
Of course I could be wrong about all this - they might be sitting on some good info. holding off on announcements until they are sitting pretty.... have any directors been buying lately?.... say in the last few months?
.. just checked that - Director Karoll bought 330000 listed options in October (cost him just $6k or so).
... New director Mitchell holds 1.6 Mill ord shares... but date of purchase not stated ?
The options expiring in march which could be worth a punt - with BG and others probably still on the prowl for more gas.
WCL share price certainly seem to be benefitting from the general CSG speculation at the moment... but they'll have to come up with the goods eventually... likewise for BUL - though they have a much greater area to play with!
I might yet be convinced to have a small punt on some options - hoping for some reserves to be certified as promised this qtr.
As you say the flow rates they have reported have been a little underwhelming - and that hole seems to have had plenty of time to dewater etc. the interesting thing for me is that they've drilled a few other exploration wells - maybe 3 or 4 more from memory - but, unless I've missed something, they have been very quiet on the reporting front since inital flows in july really...which leads me to wonder if the other holes aren't producing much gas either?
They only have a couple of farm-in tenements too - so I think 600PJ is a long way off... maybe impossible.
Of course I could be wrong about all this - they might be sitting on some good info. holding off on announcements until they are sitting pretty.... have any directors been buying lately?.... say in the last few months?
.. just checked that - Director Karoll bought 330000 listed options in October (cost him just $6k or so).
... New director Mitchell holds 1.6 Mill ord shares... but date of purchase not stated ?
The options expiring in march which could be worth a punt - with BG and others probably still on the prowl for more gas.
WCL share price certainly seem to be benefitting from the general CSG speculation at the moment... but they'll have to come up with the goods eventually... likewise for BUL - though they have a much greater area to play with!
I might yet be convinced to have a small punt on some options - hoping for some reserves to be certified as promised this qtr.
has anyone noticed that there's a huge difference between the WCL spot and WCLO (Call option). Althought WCLO expires end of this month with 0.50 strike price, WCL spot is trading at 0.58. but WCLO is only trading at 0.025-0.030. be me, the theoretical price should be at least 0.08! of course due to the liquidity, you'll probably need to exercise the options to realise the gains, but still that's more than 3x of wat you pay on the options!
WCL managed to raise $13m from it's exercised options. and now have plan in place with QGC to prove up to 3,000PJ (3 trillion cf) of gas reserve. although they have only two tenements in QLD, but they r huge almost counts for half of QGC's tenements in land mass.
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WCL is another CSG play that has caught my eye these last few weeks
They're 50:50 JV partner is BG (the group that has spent Billions doing CSG takeovers)
They are in the process of doing lots of drilling and reserves should be forthcoming
They are well cashed up $25M-$28M
Another obvious take over play IMO, its late will do a full write up tomorrow sleep time now
They're 50:50 JV partner is BG (the group that has spent Billions doing CSG takeovers)
They are in the process of doing lots of drilling and reserves should be forthcoming
They are well cashed up $25M-$28M
Another obvious take over play IMO, its late will do a full write up tomorrow sleep time now
Sean K
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Hey guys, no write up yet from me but got some good info from a poster over on hotcopper named SLE, hope he doesnt mind me posting the article/info he found out about one of the directors
Recently joined WCL'S management line- up. Also in the current issue of BRW'S rich 200. One must wonder why Nathan MITCHELL chose WCL out of all the CSG plays to join??? Good read this edition of BRW. (I'm not in anyway associated with BRW). Here's MITCHELL'S profile from the WCL website:
Nathan Mitchell has a lifelong involvement with the drilling and resource exploration industry, throughout which time he has developed both skilled technical ability and commercial management expertise.
As Chief Executive Officer of Mitchell Drilling for six years, prior to the sale of its Australian operations to Lucas Coal Technologies in August 2008, Nathan grew the company significantly - doubling its size twice in that time. Nathan also directed the company’s expansion to Indonesia and India, and more recently China, USA, and Zambia. As CEO of the privately-held Mitchell Energy Group, Nathan continues to mange these international drilling operations.
Nathan is a pioneer in the development of drilling techniques in the Coal Seam Gas (CSG) industry. His early identification of the potential of CSG saw him personally involved with the research and development of innovative drilling techniques, such as directional surface to inseam drilling methods which have now been widely adopted. Nathan has directly supervised the drilling of over 300 wells using this technique.
Nathan’s other interests focus on his passion for the continuing development of the international CSG industry through his international drilling businesses, ongoing contributions to the management of Lucas Mitchell Drilling and development of strategic alliances with industry participants.
Recently joined WCL'S management line- up. Also in the current issue of BRW'S rich 200. One must wonder why Nathan MITCHELL chose WCL out of all the CSG plays to join??? Good read this edition of BRW. (I'm not in anyway associated with BRW). Here's MITCHELL'S profile from the WCL website:
Nathan Mitchell has a lifelong involvement with the drilling and resource exploration industry, throughout which time he has developed both skilled technical ability and commercial management expertise.
As Chief Executive Officer of Mitchell Drilling for six years, prior to the sale of its Australian operations to Lucas Coal Technologies in August 2008, Nathan grew the company significantly - doubling its size twice in that time. Nathan also directed the company’s expansion to Indonesia and India, and more recently China, USA, and Zambia. As CEO of the privately-held Mitchell Energy Group, Nathan continues to mange these international drilling operations.
Nathan is a pioneer in the development of drilling techniques in the Coal Seam Gas (CSG) industry. His early identification of the potential of CSG saw him personally involved with the research and development of innovative drilling techniques, such as directional surface to inseam drilling methods which have now been widely adopted. Nathan has directly supervised the drilling of over 300 wells using this technique.
Nathan’s other interests focus on his passion for the continuing development of the international CSG industry through his international drilling businesses, ongoing contributions to the management of Lucas Mitchell Drilling and development of strategic alliances with industry participants.
This flow rate is not all that flash 28000 standard cubic feet / day.
I should use it in context against other csg producers.
28000 is 28 mcfd. Qld Gas often flowed at 500 - 1000 mcfd
Qld Gas probably do have the best flows in the world though....for csg (per Richard Cottee...although he was perhaps biased).
I recall the prospectus on this saying they were hoping to acheive 600 PJ (from memory, don't quote me). At say 60c/GJ that is $360 mill worth....current Market cap $60 mill.
Some upside if reserves come in well in this qtr.
I posted this on the 6R ATP769P Drill I think. I didn't think it was all that flash. Hope the new ones come up better!
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Looks like more good drilling results
WestSide Corporation Ltd (ASX code WCL) advises that its Bald Hill #1 core well in ATP 688P in the northern Bowen Basin has confirmed the northern extension of the target coal seams in the Bald Hill area. These are the same coal seams as in the Tilbrook field which is 8 km south of the Bald Hill well with additional Fort Cooper Coal Measures. The Bald Hill well shows net coal in excess of 8 metres.
Grace while it wont happen overnight I see serious takeover value in WCL especially since BG already have 50% of the leases
At ATP 769 they have a GIP of 900BCF, assuming a 60% recovery thats 540 bcf 3P at $1 GJ/3P thats $540m or net $270m to WCL
At ATP 7688 they have a GIP of 3TCF, assuming a 60% recovery thats 1.8 tcf 3P at $1 GJ/3P thats $1800m or net $900m to WCL
So assuming that theres a 60% conversion of GIP to 3P a takeover at $1 per GJ 3P would be placed at $1.17Billion, with 120M shares on issue thats almost $10 a share
While I doubt BG will ever pay this much they may be prepared to pay say 50% of that = $5 a share, even 25% of that = $2.50 a share, so lots of upside from here
WestSide Corporation Ltd (ASX code WCL) advises that its Bald Hill #1 core well in ATP 688P in the northern Bowen Basin has confirmed the northern extension of the target coal seams in the Bald Hill area. These are the same coal seams as in the Tilbrook field which is 8 km south of the Bald Hill well with additional Fort Cooper Coal Measures. The Bald Hill well shows net coal in excess of 8 metres.
Grace while it wont happen overnight I see serious takeover value in WCL especially since BG already have 50% of the leases
At ATP 769 they have a GIP of 900BCF, assuming a 60% recovery thats 540 bcf 3P at $1 GJ/3P thats $540m or net $270m to WCL
At ATP 7688 they have a GIP of 3TCF, assuming a 60% recovery thats 1.8 tcf 3P at $1 GJ/3P thats $1800m or net $900m to WCL
So assuming that theres a 60% conversion of GIP to 3P a takeover at $1 per GJ 3P would be placed at $1.17Billion, with 120M shares on issue thats almost $10 a share
While I doubt BG will ever pay this much they may be prepared to pay say 50% of that = $5 a share, even 25% of that = $2.50 a share, so lots of upside from here
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I have been a holder of WCL for a month or so now and have just doubled my position at 50c
I undertook alot of due diligence and analysis prior to committing more capital and heres why I decided to
WCL 110m shares @ 50c Mkt Cap = $55m
Cash $25m (note the last qtrly does not include options and placmeent funds, see the presentation a few days prior where cash was stated at $27m)
EV = $30m
ATP 769 50% jv BG GroupThis is the better of the 2 permits primarily because of its proximity to the Santos/petronas Gladstone and the BG/QGC Curtis LNG facilities
GIP ranges from 1TCF down to 1000ms up to 3.3TCF down to 1500ms, with a 50% recovery factor and a 50% interest WCL can expect between 250BCF - 825BCF in Gas Reserves
At a 3P level this is worth $1/PJ = $250m - $825m = $2.25-$7.50 however this is assuming alot, it should be noted were these reserves 2P then you can double the value as 2P recieves roughly $2/PJ
The intial Net Reserves Target by June (ie this month) is 72PJ at $1/PJ 3P - $2/PJ 2P = 65c-$1.30 WCL
I will assume that the intial reserves being preliminary in nature will be 3P so 65c is the value per share I will attribute, but note if it is in fact 2P this figure doubles!
ATP 688 50% jv BG Group
This appears to have a much much larger resource and is also not that far away from the Santos/petronas Gladstone and the BG/QGC Curtis LNG facilities
GIP is 3TCF with 0 attributed to the Fort Cooper Coal Seams where AOE in their adjacent permit have been having great success, with a 50% recovery factor and a 50% interest WCL can expect between 750BCF
At a 3P level this is worth $1/PJ = $750m = $6.80 however this is assuming alot, it should be noted were these reserves 2P then you can double the value as 2P recieves roughly $2/PJ
The intial Net Reserves Target by June (ie this month) is 80PJ at $1/PJ 3P - $2/PJ 2P = 70c-$1.40 WCL
I will assume that the intial reserves being preliminary in nature will be 3P so 70c is the value per share I will attribute, but note if it is in fact 2P this figure doubles!
Valuation
Cash $22m = 20c
ATP 769 72PJ's Net 3P = 65c
ATP 688 80PJ's Net 3P = 70c
Target Value = $1.55c
Note if intial Reserves are 2P this valuation rises to $2.90
Conclusions
With $25m in the bank the company won't need to raise funds for at least 12months given they share the bruden of costs with BG 50:50
ATP 769 is stragically positioned in terms of proximity to Gladstone and Curtis, and given BG already own 50% of it I suggest its a matter of whn not if they pounce
The Reserves certification due for completion this month should highlight $1.50+ of value with around $10 per share of GIP upside
Remember PES was once a 30c stock and finished up being taken out for $8.25c by you guessed it BG
Thoughts?
I undertook alot of due diligence and analysis prior to committing more capital and heres why I decided to
WCL 110m shares @ 50c Mkt Cap = $55m
Cash $25m (note the last qtrly does not include options and placmeent funds, see the presentation a few days prior where cash was stated at $27m)
EV = $30m
ATP 769 50% jv BG GroupThis is the better of the 2 permits primarily because of its proximity to the Santos/petronas Gladstone and the BG/QGC Curtis LNG facilities
GIP ranges from 1TCF down to 1000ms up to 3.3TCF down to 1500ms, with a 50% recovery factor and a 50% interest WCL can expect between 250BCF - 825BCF in Gas Reserves
At a 3P level this is worth $1/PJ = $250m - $825m = $2.25-$7.50 however this is assuming alot, it should be noted were these reserves 2P then you can double the value as 2P recieves roughly $2/PJ
The intial Net Reserves Target by June (ie this month) is 72PJ at $1/PJ 3P - $2/PJ 2P = 65c-$1.30 WCL
I will assume that the intial reserves being preliminary in nature will be 3P so 65c is the value per share I will attribute, but note if it is in fact 2P this figure doubles!
ATP 688 50% jv BG Group
This appears to have a much much larger resource and is also not that far away from the Santos/petronas Gladstone and the BG/QGC Curtis LNG facilities
GIP is 3TCF with 0 attributed to the Fort Cooper Coal Seams where AOE in their adjacent permit have been having great success, with a 50% recovery factor and a 50% interest WCL can expect between 750BCF
At a 3P level this is worth $1/PJ = $750m = $6.80 however this is assuming alot, it should be noted were these reserves 2P then you can double the value as 2P recieves roughly $2/PJ
The intial Net Reserves Target by June (ie this month) is 80PJ at $1/PJ 3P - $2/PJ 2P = 70c-$1.40 WCL
I will assume that the intial reserves being preliminary in nature will be 3P so 70c is the value per share I will attribute, but note if it is in fact 2P this figure doubles!
Valuation
Cash $22m = 20c
ATP 769 72PJ's Net 3P = 65c
ATP 688 80PJ's Net 3P = 70c
Target Value = $1.55c
Note if intial Reserves are 2P this valuation rises to $2.90
Conclusions
With $25m in the bank the company won't need to raise funds for at least 12months given they share the bruden of costs with BG 50:50
ATP 769 is stragically positioned in terms of proximity to Gladstone and Curtis, and given BG already own 50% of it I suggest its a matter of whn not if they pounce
The Reserves certification due for completion this month should highlight $1.50+ of value with around $10 per share of GIP upside
Remember PES was once a 30c stock and finished up being taken out for $8.25c by you guessed it BG
Thoughts?
YT, they are some amazing figures. If you love GIP, then you should have a look at ECU - a real eye opener if GIP were to turn up at surface.
PES was the rose amongst then.
It certainly saved me from the GFC.As for why BG haven't taken them out already, either they think they have it sewn up already (could be true) or, they are waiting on some decent flows (as I am). Lets see what the future holds.
Sean K
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Well, no matter what the figures, the market speaks. However, so few shares on issue, only a handful are actually chatting here. Significant breakdown, but if the numbers are right and CSG is a long term play, I suppose it must be placed in the long term fundamental buy and hold (hope) category. Can't disagree with YTs numbers, but the chart is diabolical. Clear breakdown in the green circle.
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Only 8 more days till June is over which means to things tax selling should end and more importnantly and more specific to WCL Reserve Certificates are due out
So far WCL is only valued on hopes and dreams, once Reserves are established it places the stock in a different light
Hindsight is always 20/20, will be interesting to see where WCL is in 6months
I will be surprised if BG hasn't made its move by then, the longer they wait the more value WCL will un-earth and the more expensive the eventual takeover will be
Grace I like GIP but prefer cheap EV per 2P 3P CSG plays such as MEL the clear standout, will be interesting to see what WCL trades at as an EV per reserves once out
So far WCL is only valued on hopes and dreams, once Reserves are established it places the stock in a different light
Hindsight is always 20/20, will be interesting to see where WCL is in 6months
I will be surprised if BG hasn't made its move by then, the longer they wait the more value WCL will un-earth and the more expensive the eventual takeover will be
Grace I like GIP but prefer cheap EV per 2P 3P CSG plays such as MEL the clear standout, will be interesting to see what WCL trades at as an EV per reserves once out
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Maiden CSG resource released
Will crunch the number properly but to begin with here is an absolute low case scenario
You can't give the 3P a figure of less than 40c a PJ, thats the lowest transaction for 3P so using that we get
211PJ @ 40cPJ = $85m approx
Cash = $25m but say $20m
Total current value = $105m = 95c a share WCL
And this attributes ZERO value to the 1,680 PJ's of Gas In Place NET TO WCL, or a total 3360 PJ's of Gas In Place over the 2 permits
Should be at $1 now
and here are the 2 key points
1. “These reserves come from only a small area of WestSide’s holdings and the accuracy of the initial estimates provide additional confidence that WestSide’s share of gas in place throughout its acreage could be up to two trillion cubic feet of gas,” he said.
The maps themselves show just how small an area these reserves come from in comparison to WCL's total area
2. WestSide has booked 135 PJ of 3P gas reserves at its Paranui pilot in ATP769P. The result confirms WestSide’s expectations for the broader ATP769P, which it
estimates contains up to 505 bcf of gas in place (WestSide share) to a depth of 1,000m. Substantially higher quantities of gas in place could be accessed through
drilling to depths greater than 1,000m
STX are targetting CSG from "1,000 metres to 1,800 metres (potential as shallow as 900 metres)"
So really WCL is only scratching the surface in terms of its CSG potential as for now they haven't told us what "lies beneath" 1000m's
1 of 2 things will happen,
either some brokers or Insto's will finally take note and get on board WCL, Wilson HTM would be my prefered backers as they are/were behind BOW COI SHG and QGC
or BG will pounce with a highily undervalued and opportunistic offer of $1
Will crunch the number properly but to begin with here is an absolute low case scenario
You can't give the 3P a figure of less than 40c a PJ, thats the lowest transaction for 3P so using that we get
211PJ @ 40cPJ = $85m approx
Cash = $25m but say $20m
Total current value = $105m = 95c a share WCL
And this attributes ZERO value to the 1,680 PJ's of Gas In Place NET TO WCL, or a total 3360 PJ's of Gas In Place over the 2 permits
Should be at $1 now
and here are the 2 key points
1. “These reserves come from only a small area of WestSide’s holdings and the accuracy of the initial estimates provide additional confidence that WestSide’s share of gas in place throughout its acreage could be up to two trillion cubic feet of gas,” he said.
The maps themselves show just how small an area these reserves come from in comparison to WCL's total area
2. WestSide has booked 135 PJ of 3P gas reserves at its Paranui pilot in ATP769P. The result confirms WestSide’s expectations for the broader ATP769P, which it
estimates contains up to 505 bcf of gas in place (WestSide share) to a depth of 1,000m. Substantially higher quantities of gas in place could be accessed through
drilling to depths greater than 1,000m
STX are targetting CSG from "1,000 metres to 1,800 metres (potential as shallow as 900 metres)"
So really WCL is only scratching the surface in terms of its CSG potential as for now they haven't told us what "lies beneath" 1000m's
1 of 2 things will happen,
either some brokers or Insto's will finally take note and get on board WCL, Wilson HTM would be my prefered backers as they are/were behind BOW COI SHG and QGC
or BG will pounce with a highily undervalued and opportunistic offer of $1
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Hi YT,
Just wondering how you work this out.
There is intrinsic value and perceived value.
I have a BV of .11c
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211 PJ's at 40cents a PJ = $84.4m = Approx $85m
Not sure what you mean when you say intrinsic and percieved value
Just take a look at other CSG stocks, see the EV or Enterprise Value per GJ/PJ that they trade at then look at WCL, also look at what BG (WCL's 50% partner) has paid in the past when doing takeovers and look at what others have paid
The avg has been $1 GJ/PJ 3P reserves, I'm only using 40c a PJ which is at the low end of the takeover offers
Not sure what you mean when you say intrinsic and percieved value
Just take a look at other CSG stocks, see the EV or Enterprise Value per GJ/PJ that they trade at then look at WCL, also look at what BG (WCL's 50% partner) has paid in the past when doing takeovers and look at what others have paid
The avg has been $1 GJ/PJ 3P reserves, I'm only using 40c a PJ which is at the low end of the takeover offers
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Here is a quote from MEL's latest presentation re takeovers/acquistions of CSG companies/projects
"Values paid for these acquisitions have ranged from:
$1.67-$4.91/GJ for 2P reserves
$0.67 -$1.88/GJ for 3P reserves
These acquisitions provide an arm’s length benchmark value for Australian CSG assets
Values are influenced by a wide variety of factors including location, maturation profile, stage of development, and additional resources"
at 67c a GJ = 211 x 67c = $140m +$@5m cash = $1.50 a share value approx
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