House prices to keep rising for years
- Thread starter moses
- Start date
- Status
- Joined
- 12 December 2008
- Posts
- 153
- Reactions
- 0
numbercruncher
Beware of Dropbears
- Joined
- 12 October 2006
- Posts
- 3,136
- Reactions
- 1
chops_a_must
Printing My Own Money
- Joined
- 1 November 2006
- Posts
- 4,636
- Reactions
- 3
Got no idea about homicide rates, but pretty sure anyone involved with St. Kilda contributes to the homocide rate.
- Joined
- 12 December 2008
- Posts
- 153
- Reactions
- 0
And being involved with Perth contributes to shark attacks:shake:
numbercruncher
Beware of Dropbears
- Joined
- 12 October 2006
- Posts
- 3,136
- Reactions
- 1
Thanks pops ...
What a load of whinging, bitter, over-emotional non-property-owner propaganda! And a load of rubbish to boot.....
For a start, there is no great housing crash or housing bailout going on in this fine country. Just the business as usual incentives to encourage home ownership (better for people when they retire) plus subsidies for the private provision of what otherwise would be publically funded housing.
Oh yes, all your financial problems, lack of foresight, inaction when opportunity presented itself etc are all the fault of previous generations and not yourself or your own decisions in anyway whatsoever.....
Plenty of decent property around at affordable prices for the kiddies to get a start, all over the country. Always has been, always will be, just requires a few compromises along the way before you get to where you would really like to be.
If anyone has a philosophical problem with debt for housing (ie having a mortgage) then keep on paying rent, you'll just make gramps a happier man than he already is in the long run!
Or you could be smart like him and look forward to the time when you get to live rent free in your own home (fully owned) plus maybe live off the rent income being paid by others to you instead of to others by you......Beej
beej, I reckon your post about sums it up...right....
now if they can just eliminate the picture of stock price graphs and insert the history graph for housing..and remember the two are miles apart....there may be a better understanding regarding the roof over their heads...
with interest rates coming down to 2-3% this coming year....looks like a window of opportunity for some...
and then there is this report from the business spectator...copied from another site...............................
Few subjects elicit more emotive debate than house prices. And rightly so given that the average Australian family has 60-70 percent of all their wealth in the world invested in their home. Understanding whether house prices are moving up, down or sideways is of vital importance to us all.
Yet as the co-producer of one of Australia’s most frequently referenced house price indices, I have been amazed at the number of times individuals have expressed disbelief at the remarkable resilience displayed by the median Australian house price during the last 12 months.
Despite households being slammed with five-plus interest rate hikes between November 2007 and mid 2008, plummeting consumer and business confidence, a non-farm economy that registered negative growth in the third quarter, daily doom and gloom regarding the global financial crisis, and unprecedented 50 percent across-the-board falls in shares and listed property trusts, Australian house prices have barely budged.
In the year to end October 2008 they are off by about 1 per cent notwithstanding hyperbolic predictions from several commentators of 30-50 per cent price falls. In fact, the latest data indicates that Australian house prices have stabilised in the fourth quarter.
And yet if you believed the headlines and the statements of various pundits you would think the world was coming to an end. The media has incessantly recycled war stories from affluent areas -- such as Sydney’s northern and eastern suburbs -- about precipitous price discounting, cataclysmic losses on multi-million dollar homes, and vast swathes of properties listed for sale in salubrious destinations like Palm Beach.
As economists like Macquarie Bank’s Rory Robertson have noted, the quality of reporting in general has, however, been very poor. For example, under the headline “Dismal Outlook for Housing” The Australian Financial Review exclaimed on 16 December 2008 that “median house values had fallen since September”. But this is just plain wrong: according to the two key house price indices published by the Reserve Bank of Australia -- APM and RP Data-Rismark -- median Australian house values have actually risen since September.
More generally, conversations amongst the commentariat and members of the financial services industry in particular are littered with bearish stories of house prices plummeting in luxury markets and vendors not getting the gains they expected (which is equated with a real loss). But what these folks don’t understand is that price movements in the $1 million plus sector are of virtually no relevance to the average Australian home owner or the overall housing market.
The truth is that an important behavioural bias, known as ‘anchoring’, is responsible for the inability of many journalists (and the financial services executives to whom they speak) to fathom Australia’s housing market dynamics. Anchoring denotes the tendency of people to rely far too heavily on small pieces of non-representative information when making decisions or estimating probabilities.
In 2002 Daniel Kahneman was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics for his work (with the late Amos Tversky) documenting the anchoring bias and other behavioural dispositions that adversely afflict human decision-making. These frailties in our judgment have been shown to exacerbate the protracted booms and busts in share prices that we have observed over the last 30 years.
When it comes to house prices, purported experts tend to make the mistake of extrapolating out from their individual circumstances and using this information as a credible proxy for the wider market. Yet despite the media prominence given to homes worth more than the magical $1 million mark, these properties account for only 5 per cent of all sales in Australia. That is, they are of no relevance to 95 percent of home owners. In fact, nearly 80 percent of all Australian property sales in the last year have comprised of homes valued between $200,000 and $600,000.
Importantly, there has also been a great disconnect between the performance of properties in the luxury and mass markets. The global financial crisis has hit middle to upper income households in the financial services sector hardest. So-called ‘affluent unemployment’ has triggered substantial property price falls in dress-circle locations such as the eastern and northern suburbs of Sydney and the Tooraks of Melbourne. And thus the top 10 per cent of all homes in Sydney and Melbourne ranked by value have suffered the highest price falls, declining by more than 12 per cent over 2008.
Yet the median Australian home, worth just over $400,000, has been extraordinarily resilient falling by little more than 1 per cent. It is, therefore, highly misleading to presume that the experience of upper income households can be applied to the average Australian home owner as is the media’s wont. While rising unemployment will inevitably put further pressure on prices, this will be counterbalanced by 30-50 per cent reductions in mortgage rates combined with the government’s commitment to support households via greater fiscal stimulus. Australia’s media also needs to come to the party by spending less time fuelling consumer fears with sensationalist headlines and investing more effort objectively analysing the data.
The $3.3 trillion housing market is simply too big a topic to get wrong.
Christopher Joye writes Business Spectator's property blog and is managing director of research group Rismark International which produces the RP Data-Rismark Hedonic House Price Indices in conjunction with Australia’s largest property information company, RP Data.
now if they can just eliminate the picture of stock price graphs and insert the history graph for housing..and remember the two are miles apart....there may be a better understanding regarding the roof over their heads...
with interest rates coming down to 2-3% this coming year....looks like a window of opportunity for some...
and then there is this report from the business spectator...copied from another site...............................
Few subjects elicit more emotive debate than house prices. And rightly so given that the average Australian family has 60-70 percent of all their wealth in the world invested in their home. Understanding whether house prices are moving up, down or sideways is of vital importance to us all.
Yet as the co-producer of one of Australia’s most frequently referenced house price indices, I have been amazed at the number of times individuals have expressed disbelief at the remarkable resilience displayed by the median Australian house price during the last 12 months.
Despite households being slammed with five-plus interest rate hikes between November 2007 and mid 2008, plummeting consumer and business confidence, a non-farm economy that registered negative growth in the third quarter, daily doom and gloom regarding the global financial crisis, and unprecedented 50 percent across-the-board falls in shares and listed property trusts, Australian house prices have barely budged.
In the year to end October 2008 they are off by about 1 per cent notwithstanding hyperbolic predictions from several commentators of 30-50 per cent price falls. In fact, the latest data indicates that Australian house prices have stabilised in the fourth quarter.
And yet if you believed the headlines and the statements of various pundits you would think the world was coming to an end. The media has incessantly recycled war stories from affluent areas -- such as Sydney’s northern and eastern suburbs -- about precipitous price discounting, cataclysmic losses on multi-million dollar homes, and vast swathes of properties listed for sale in salubrious destinations like Palm Beach.
As economists like Macquarie Bank’s Rory Robertson have noted, the quality of reporting in general has, however, been very poor. For example, under the headline “Dismal Outlook for Housing” The Australian Financial Review exclaimed on 16 December 2008 that “median house values had fallen since September”. But this is just plain wrong: according to the two key house price indices published by the Reserve Bank of Australia -- APM and RP Data-Rismark -- median Australian house values have actually risen since September.
More generally, conversations amongst the commentariat and members of the financial services industry in particular are littered with bearish stories of house prices plummeting in luxury markets and vendors not getting the gains they expected (which is equated with a real loss). But what these folks don’t understand is that price movements in the $1 million plus sector are of virtually no relevance to the average Australian home owner or the overall housing market.
The truth is that an important behavioural bias, known as ‘anchoring’, is responsible for the inability of many journalists (and the financial services executives to whom they speak) to fathom Australia’s housing market dynamics. Anchoring denotes the tendency of people to rely far too heavily on small pieces of non-representative information when making decisions or estimating probabilities.
In 2002 Daniel Kahneman was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics for his work (with the late Amos Tversky) documenting the anchoring bias and other behavioural dispositions that adversely afflict human decision-making. These frailties in our judgment have been shown to exacerbate the protracted booms and busts in share prices that we have observed over the last 30 years.
When it comes to house prices, purported experts tend to make the mistake of extrapolating out from their individual circumstances and using this information as a credible proxy for the wider market. Yet despite the media prominence given to homes worth more than the magical $1 million mark, these properties account for only 5 per cent of all sales in Australia. That is, they are of no relevance to 95 percent of home owners. In fact, nearly 80 percent of all Australian property sales in the last year have comprised of homes valued between $200,000 and $600,000.
Importantly, there has also been a great disconnect between the performance of properties in the luxury and mass markets. The global financial crisis has hit middle to upper income households in the financial services sector hardest. So-called ‘affluent unemployment’ has triggered substantial property price falls in dress-circle locations such as the eastern and northern suburbs of Sydney and the Tooraks of Melbourne. And thus the top 10 per cent of all homes in Sydney and Melbourne ranked by value have suffered the highest price falls, declining by more than 12 per cent over 2008.
Yet the median Australian home, worth just over $400,000, has been extraordinarily resilient falling by little more than 1 per cent. It is, therefore, highly misleading to presume that the experience of upper income households can be applied to the average Australian home owner as is the media’s wont. While rising unemployment will inevitably put further pressure on prices, this will be counterbalanced by 30-50 per cent reductions in mortgage rates combined with the government’s commitment to support households via greater fiscal stimulus. Australia’s media also needs to come to the party by spending less time fuelling consumer fears with sensationalist headlines and investing more effort objectively analysing the data.
The $3.3 trillion housing market is simply too big a topic to get wrong.
Christopher Joye writes Business Spectator's property blog and is managing director of research group Rismark International which produces the RP Data-Rismark Hedonic House Price Indices in conjunction with Australia’s largest property information company, RP Data.
both the bulls and the bears suffer from the same trait....neither takes any notice of the opposite view......its an interesting concept to think about..
explains why the average mum and dad home owner is not rushing out to sell their HOME.....and the average renter is not about to change his attitude just yet...
except an interesting change takes place at some stage.....hmmm fall in love...get married...and guess what.....the missus wants her own home to raise her babies in....
I dont mind either way.....renters and home owners can all live together
cheers
- Joined
- 6 September 2008
- Posts
- 7,676
- Reactions
- 68
When the weather experts tell me it's sunny but I look out the window and it's raining I believe what I see, these housing experts should also look out the window sometimes instead of burying themselves in "research" that not even they understand and is inevitably wrong.
There are houses all around me that have been on the market for months or are sold at hundreds of thousands of dollars below last years levels, upmarket suburb in Melbourne, so I dont need some arrogant full of himself ******** telling me house prices have fallen 1%.
hello,
come on Mr Burns give us an example, just one please, herald-sun would have an article on it surely
thankyou
robots
We here could quite easily say also that we don't need some grumpy, full of himself internet nobody telling us all the experts in the field or full of it and they know better!
Did you actually read that posted article? It states clearly the mistake you are making by trying to judge the whole market and it's outlook based on what you see in one "upmarket"/affluent Melbourne suburb. Not all area's are equal, some are under more pressure than others, some are ticking along quite nicely without any high volume of sales, forced or otherwise. The average suburbs in the major markets of Sydney and Melbourne are all doing quite fine - the median stats for the Dec quarter will show this when they are released.
Beej
- Joined
- 6 September 2008
- Posts
- 7,676
- Reactions
- 68
Glennferrie Rd Kew, up for Expression of Interest months ago, not sold still there, give me one example of something that sold for 14.8% higher in 08" than it was worth the year before in St Kilda robots
- Joined
- 6 September 2008
- Posts
- 7,676
- Reactions
- 68
We here could quite easily say also that we don't need some grumpy, full of himself internet nobody telling us all the experts in the field or full of it and they know better!
Not all area's are equal, some are under more pressure than others, some are ticking along quite nicely without any high volume of sales, forced or otherwise. The average suburbs in the major markets of Sydney and Melbourne are all doing quite fine - the median stats for the Dec quarter will show this when they are released.
Beej
Well you could say that but that would be personalizing the argument wouldn't it, I was talking about the guy from RP Data and there you go attacking me personally as If I were talking about you.
I could say you were a property permabull internet nobody who attatches himself to any piece of property propaganda to make himself feel vindicated and smug about his teetering property investment/s but I won't.
To say they've fallen 1% is misleading and it's not just one area it's a whole city of suburbs.
There will always be exceptions but overall it's all over rover for the permabulls but you wont know it till they're moving your furniture out onto the nature strip........thats if you have nature strips in St Kilda, I think the doors generally open directly into the gutter there.
- Joined
- 6 September 2008
- Posts
- 7,676
- Reactions
- 68
Bulldust I know that property and it was overvalued the year before so it actually went down, any others ???
- Joined
- 6 September 2008
- Posts
- 7,676
- Reactions
- 68
There is no such property, you made that up.........next !
- Joined
- 6 September 2008
- Posts
- 7,676
- Reactions
- 68
RP Data are either owned by or have very close links to Realestate.com.au the figures can be tweaked to say whatever you like as with most statistics.
One big sale in a location, where there's hardly any volume will show that the area has lifted, let's say but 14.8% but in fact hasn't has it, thats how it works, you're better to look out the window and leave the analyzing of the stats to those who exist in another dimension.
One big sale in a location, where there's hardly any volume will show that the area has lifted, let's say but 14.8% but in fact hasn't has it, thats how it works, you're better to look out the window and leave the analyzing of the stats to those who exist in another dimension.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
