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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

ok...
i may be stupid...
but 6212 just now...
as far as i know,
huge resistance in 6200 area... it is very hard before to break this level.
but today.. after few hickup in indexing, now break this resistance easily ??
well.. maybe someone knows that FED will be "kind" tomorrow or will he????
 
Re: XAO Analysis

powerkoala said:
ok...
i may be stupid...
but 6212 just now...
as far as i know,
huge resistance in 6200 area... it is very hard before to break this level.
but today.. after few hickup in indexing, now break this resistance easily ??
well.. maybe someone knows that FED will be "kind" tomorrow or will he????
Click to expand...

so once the resistance goes... party on!

no-one knows what Ben will say - its 'gambling' to hold into what could potentially be a major market announcement - better to wait for the news to come out then play the move. so if you're short you'll want to cover beforehand
 
Re: XAO Analysis

sam76 said:
Hi TH,

Can you elaborate on what a short squeeze is?

Just for the dumber ones out here:eek:

;)
Click to expand...
___________
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

In finance, a short squeeze is a rapid increase in the price of a stock that occurs when there is a lack of supply and an excess of demand for the stock.

Short squeezes result when short sellers cover their positions on a stock. This can occur if the price has risen to a point where these people simply decide to cut their losses and get out. (This may happen in an automated manner if the short sellers had previously placed stop-loss orders with their brokers to prepare for this eventuality.) Since covering their positions involves buying shares, the short squeeze causes an ever further rise in the stock's price, which in turn may trigger additional covering.

___________

I flagged the possibility of this happening on Wednesday as it seemed that every one had positioned themselves for for a retest of the lows.
As usual what happens when many are learning the same way we go in the opposite direction.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Edwood said:
so once the resistance goes... party on!

no-one knows what Ben will say - its 'gambling' to hold into what could potentially be a major market announcement - better to wait for the news to come out then play the move. so if you're short you'll want to cover beforehand
Click to expand...

very true.
sold some yesterday coz i think today will be RED day.
yet, i was wrong.
still waiting for the "party" to pick up few more :)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

trembling Hand said:
___________
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

In finance, a short squeeze is a rapid increase in the price of a stock that occurs when there is a lack of supply and an excess of demand for the stock.

Short squeezes result when short sellers cover their positions on a stock. This can occur if the price has risen to a point where these people simply decide to cut their losses and get out. (This may happen in an automated manner if the short sellers had previously placed stop-loss orders with their brokers to prepare for this eventuality.) Since covering their positions involves buying shares, the short squeeze causes an ever further rise in the stock's price, which in turn may trigger additional covering.

___________

I flagged the possibility of this happening on Wednesday as it seemed that every one had positioned themselves for for a retest of the lows.
As usual what happens when many are learning the same way we go in the opposite direction.
Click to expand...

Wicked. Thanks mate.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

sam76 said:
Hi TH,

Can you elaborate on what a short squeeze is?

Just for the dumber ones out here:eek:

;)
Click to expand...

here's quick explanation sam-

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortsqueeze.asp


Interesting move this afternoon, been pretty aggressive buying across the entire region. U.S futures have moved in sympathy and the DOW is up over 80 already. Could be a big up evening if Europe decides to join in later this afternoon.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

possible target now we've broken out, but anywhere up here will complete the pattern, look to be in iii of 5 imo

asxcount300807do9.gif
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Waves.

It seems some leading E/W pundits are calling a time line on the S&P as 31/8-6/9/07 as the top of the current corrective move before a resumption of the bear trading phase.

how does your time analysis sit with this?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Waves.

It seems some leading E/W pundits are calling a time line on the S&P as 31/8-6/9/07 as the top of the current corrective move before a resumption of the bear trading phase.

how does your time analysis sit with this?
Click to expand...

Hello John,

I see a similar date(s) specifically between the 4th and 6th (SP500 and most indices), however IMO this will only cause a temporary snapback to the current upmove. Would not surprise me if the indices put in some sort of consolidation thereafter before putting in a final recovery high to finish this countertrend later this month/early next(need to do some more work to get a more accurate target date). Another date to look at is 19th Sep(not sure of significance yet). It is my thinking that the market needs to chew up time first, and you can bet your bottom dollar it will confuse 90% of the pundits in the process, so I think it will first do some rather fancy footwork and take out all the shorts and stops before finally moving. (Just my opinion)

Incidentally, I have a very significant fib time date on the 14/15 November, and the 21 to 24 of March 2008. So might pay to keep these times in mind.
Please understand that I am still learning to apply this stuff, so don't take my word as gospel.

Cheers
 
Re: XAO Analysis

This is something that the Foundation For The Study Of Cycles has come up with in the US for the DJIA.

It's based on FFT analysis of market data. As you can see that their projection is slight out of phase with price ATM(projection comes in late) . So I would only look at it as a rough guide in terms of possible future market direction . Also the magnitudes(price levels) I would not trust 100% either, once again to be used only as a guide.

The problem with this sort of approach is that the further you look into the future, the less the accuracy. However if one looks at 1/2 the span of a cycle into the future then the forecast might be more credible.

I should also add the that the dates on the earlier post where in no way derived from this chart or type of analysis.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Well the XAO is looking pretty good here as far as recapturing the old range but yet again the Big Caps are masking the weakness in the market. We have the ASX 20 about to hit new all time highs yet the Small cap index is back where it was in April. Have a look at this chart of the 6 month new highs it has been in a downward trend since the start of the year. Can we print some good numbers here to show some spine to this rally or are we going to roll over and print another lower high?
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

nice chart TH

looks like SPI will be opening today around mid-6,300's. gee I'd be a bit miffed if I'd dumped my portfolio during the recent correction, who would've thought we'd be back up here 3 weeks later! :eek:
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Well I dumped a couple of sizable longterm portfolios and Im ANYTHING BUT miffed.
I'm cashed.
I'm enjoying a change of pace short term trading.
I've mitigated risk.
Currently I'm no better or worse off than when I sold (A few K difference).
I'm far from convinced that this is going to signal a return of the longterm bull.

If it does then back I'll go.
No big deal.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I am quite suprised about this..did you buy back into the market a few weeks back? A bottom was signalled and it was very obvious!

then we just experienced the biggest weekly rise in 30 years...what a missed oppourtinity if you didn't.

Amazing that you geared heavily in the property market and rode the biggest housing boom in 30 years but missed the stock market boom of late.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Kris.

Just bad analysis I guess.
I'll just have to be happy with picking up the last 5 yrs then.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Well I dumped a couple of sizable longterm portfolios and Im ANYTHING BUT miffed.
I'm cashed.
I'm enjoying a change of pace short term trading.
I've mitigated risk.
Currently I'm no better or worse off than when I sold (A few K difference).
I'm far from convinced that this is going to signal a return of the longterm bull.

If it does then back I'll go.
No big deal.
Click to expand...

yeah I'm not too worried about you Tech, you know what you're doing! :) I'm more feeling for any who panicked themselves out round the lows or had to get out to meet margin calls & seeing current levels must wonder wth has happened. nothing wrong with being in cash at the moment, this volatility should be with us for a bit longer yet :D
 
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