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ZFX - Zinifex Limited

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Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX


This misinformation about stock being tightly held has been repeated ad nauseum.

Page 55 of the ZFX Annual Report lists the top shareholders as at 13/9/04.

Of the substantial shareholders, 452 Capital Pty Ltd (a managed funds run by Peter Morgan) filed notice of ceasing to be a substantial shareholder (over 25 million shares) with ASX on 28/10/04. The details of sales of ZFX shares in that notice suggested that the shares were sold to the open market at various prices.

Deutsche Bank AG filed notice of ceasing to be a substantial shareholder of ZFX on 5/11/04 (over 33 million shares). Highfields Capital Management LP filed notice of ceasing to be a substantial shareholder of ZFX on 26/11/04 (over 25 million shares). Barclays Group filed notice of ceasing to be a substantial shareholder on 14/12/04 (over 39 million shares).

Any shareholder of ZFX (irregardless of size) can sell ZFX shares whenever they choose, because there is no law against selling.

I will sell my 30,000 shares when my target price is reached, after I clear the 12 months holding period, to reduce CGT.
 
Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX


You do not seem to understand the difference between replacement costs of new smelters and current valuation of very old smelters (depreciated assets in worn and torn condition) if sold to the open market (a sale requires a willing buyer and a willing seller). As for mines, remaining mine life is critical and impacts on P/E valuations.

Pages 6 and 7 of ZFX's annual report outlines the four smelters. It stated that the smelter in Clarksville, USA is losing money and will require CAPEX to try to improve performance.

It is logical that if this smelter continues to lose money, say after a year or two, it will be closed and its assets sold to the highest bidder. CAPEX still required to clean up the site due to EPA laws.

If you have researched ZFX properly, you would know that the ZFX smelters are not returning adequate ROE employed. This is partly why ZFX's share price is trading at a relatively low P/E.
 
Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX

chicken said:
...the share price at $3.06 is still a joke of what they got..or are you saying I am wrong...post your reply..after all they own everything and are effectively DEBT FREE.....
Click to expand...

If you see $3.06 as significantly undervalued, the logical next step would be to buy as many as you can. No one will stop you.
 
Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX

Investor said:
If you see $3.06 as significantly undervalued, the logical next step would be to buy as many as you can. No one will stop you.
Click to expand...

Hi Investor,

Excellent posts, I am worried about Chicken now because he is going to get confused as he can't understand that kind of information.

WBII
 
Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX

The company or the stock?

I have pretty good knowledge of Zinifex operations at a technical and practical level although I have never worked for them. Had plenty of visits to the Hobart smelter and know basically how it works (I'll pass on the specific chemistry details for now though ).

Very interesting stuff and it's a BIG operation in a physical sense once you get on site. They've cleaned up a lot over the past decade or so - even the old waste stockpile ("Residue Hill" as it was known locally) has been reprocessed. They've got all kinds of things to treat the air and water discharges too. Even environmentalists refer to pollution as something that happened in the past so it must be pretty clean these days. Been underground at Rosebery too.

However, and please take note of this Chicken, just because I think that the company and particularly the Hobart smelter are pretty good doesn't mean that the stock is going up, down, sideways or anything else.

Hobart (and some of the others) were a pretty good operation (technically at least) back when Pasminco blew up. The practical aspects and the financials are not necessarily the same.

IMO one of the biggest mistakes made by investors is either over, or under, emphasis on fundamentals. Fundamentals will heavily influence the LONG TERM performance of the stock but have practically no influence whatsoever in the short term unless something truly dramatic happens (like going bankrupt or a major mineral discovery).

Will ZFX be up tomorrow or next week? I don't know and neither do you.

 
Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX

Well, Investor if you do so much research as you say how could you have missed that those 25million shares of ZFX ...were sold from MORGANS to BARCLAYS they have been adding MORE shares been buying on the open market...just wondered how you missed that
 
Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX

From a TA perpective, zfx has done very well over the last few days, in the face of volatile metals prices and a down market. Also, it seemed to shrug off this mornings dump of 300,000 share at open.

My only concern is that deusch bank upgraded their price target to $4, but they recently sold all their shares???
 
Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX

SOLD ALL THEIR SHARES...DEUTSCHE BANK..post your evidence..as I HEARED differently....
 
Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX


Read my post properly. I stated that 452 Capital Pty Ltd sold to the open market.

I did not bother to tell you who the others sold to, because you need to do a bit of work yourself.
 
Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX

chicken said:
....post your evidence..as I HEARED differently....
Click to expand...

You tend to ask others to post evidence despite the fact that you have already been conclusively proven wrong with many of your claims, including not even knowing what zinc is used for!!! and not knowing what ZFX's main products are!!! and not knowing that one of the smelters is losing money.
 
Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX


Chicken,

Any replies?
 
Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX

chicken said:
Man..there is some strenght in this stock I put an order in for 16000 shares at $2.97...and there are NO SELLERS at that price..
Click to expand...


Subsequent to that post on 16/2/05, there were several opportunities to buy at that price and even lower over the ensuing weeks.

With a bit of luck, you might get to buy at that price, once ZFX has finished the $70 million buy back (the buy back has been very slow - is ZFX expecting further price weakness? Time will tell).
 
Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX


Looks like you did not like to hear from me!
 
Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX


He might believe the conspiracy nonsense but it would appear that he expects others to believe (if so, how naive he is and does he take us for fools?).

Any market manipulators out there? How do you carry tonnes of zinc around and where do you park them?
 
Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX

THE share price is up the market decides being short is not a good idea in this stock...but someone has again presold...check...asx on the shortsells...but each to their own..also what will happen in 10 years...does BHP concern themself with that...they will adress it when the time comes..so, being negative about a stock which will happen in 10 years...Investor, who knows what happends in 10 years..I dont ,YOU dont so talk about what we are doing NOW...tomorrow...anybodies guess...and you have not answered me re VALUE...$3.06 is still a joke watch on thursday the results might be a big supprise..If you sell or buy..well that is your business and I dont really care what you do with your stock...mine ,I am happy to hold
 
Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX

JUST got the air news....UBS still bullish on ZFX..it says also they value the share at $3.10...target price $3.73....
 
Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX

Do you actually know the difference between a valuation (now) and a target price (a year down the track???).

Also, do you realise how many times you have repeated this same information in so many of your posts? Give it a rest, chicken.
 
Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX

chicken said:
ZFX..still heading north what a share..my $4 just about there.....bought more today at $3.42....
Click to expand...

On 2/3/05, you stated "my $4 just about there". Did you get the year wrong??? Did you mean 2006?

You could not buy any share at $2.97 on 16/2/05 (in your earlier post) and so you bought at $3.42 on 2/3/05. And you call yourself "chicken"?

No wonder you think the current price is low.
 
Re: ZINIFEX..ZFX

chicken said:
JUST got the air news....UBS still bullish on ZFX..it says also they value the share at $3.10...target price $3.73....
Click to expand...

UBS

The broker expects the March quarter to be weak due to production downtime at Century, but notes the outlook remains positive as current commodity prices suggest company guidance of a FY05 profit of $190m will be conservative, with a result of $227m possible if commodity prices remain at current levels. The broker also expects the share buyback to provide support and notes the stock is trading at a discount to NPV. Valuation is $3.10.

Target price is $3.72 Current Price is $3.08 Difference:$0.64

If ZFX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17%
 
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