Yearly XAO Prediction Thread

Sean K · 31 December 2022

Dona Ferentes said:
Am happy to compile the entries ... there doesn't seem to be any spreadsheet or running calculation needed, just a tally of, and, playing to my inner megalomaniac, absolute discretion over entries, so I'll give it a go.

In order to get numbers up, let's keep entries open till the second half of January, like the 2022 comp. I'll do a tally next Friday, and the weekend following, with a CLOSE at midnight on Sunday 15 January.

And thanks for your comments in the post. Gold Star stuff.

Potentially a triple bottom around 6600 in the first half of the year, Fed stops raising rates, money is printed again, and then it bounces back to the middle of the channel to 7400 ish. Something like the 2016 recovery.

Unless Russia/Ukraine spills over into NATO or China invade Taiwan. Then, Wayne's Four Horsemen arrive.

divs4ever · 31 December 2022

Sean K said:
Potentially a triple bottom around 6600 in the first half of the year, Fed stops raising rates, money is printed again, and then it bounces back to the middle of the channel to 7400 ish. Something like the 2016 recovery.

Unless Russia/Ukraine spills over into NATO or China invade Taiwan. Then, Wayne's Four Horsemen arrive.

View attachment 151086

not Kosovo-Serbia ??

not so sure about the horsemen but plenty of vipers on the ground, already

Knobby22 · 31 December 2022

A lot can go wrong and a lot can go right.
Closed at 7038.
I am a positive person so I am going for 7039

Dona Ferentes · 31 December 2022

Knobby22 said:
A lot can go wrong and a lot can go right.
Closed at 7038.
I am a positive person so I am going for 7039

A lot can go wrong ... 7038 was the XJO ASX200 . The XAO All Ords was a bit higher close at 7222.

UMike · 31 December 2022

Going to be a tough year. I think:
ASX 200 7025
All Ords 7175

Knobby22 · 31 December 2022

Dona Ferentes said:
A lot can go wrong ... 7038 was the XJO ASX200 . The XAO All Ords was a bit higher close at 7222.

Ha, Ok thanks.
changing to 7223.

greggles · 31 December 2022

Any continued downturn in 2023 will be limited IMO. Lots of pessimism already priced in. I think commodities will boom in the second half of the year and the XAO will end the year at 8090.

The Ukraine war will be resolved by May following the implosion of the Russian economy. However, due to Russia's economic isolation this will not substantially affect Western economies and once the war is over the bulls will again take control.

macca · 31 December 2022

I am negative on the world economy ATM I think there are far too many potential hotspots to be confident.

I will call the double bottom as a future resistance point and go for 6543 for the XAO

Belli · 31 December 2022

Out of the thousands who make such predictions, given the sheer numbers of those who do so, someone will be right. So I'll predict what that 'someone' predicts.

rcw1 · 1 January 2023

XAO 8567: 1637 Dutch tulip mania NOT

Kind regards
rcw1

Bill M · 1 January 2023

XAO 5995: War, Inflation, interest rates up.

KevinBB · 1 January 2023

As reluctant as I am to make a prediction:
XAO close on 29 December 2023: 5957.90

I originally thought losses of just a bit more than 20%, but had to reduce that loss figure to account for Santa. He didn't come in 2022, so he'll have to either arrive in early January 2023, or shower many more gifts in December 2023.

KH

Smurf1976 · 2 January 2023

6624 - No great disaster but general gloom

Dona Ferentes · 2 January 2023

With the year 2022 ending at 7222 for the XAO All Ordinaries, here are current entries for full CY2023.
Comp closes late Sunday 15th Jan.

rcw1 .................... 8567 - 1637 Dutch tulip mania NOT
Frugal.rock .......... 8333 - choppy until the bull arrives
greggles .............. 8090 - downside limited, commodities will boom
Dona F.................. 7850 - recessions are good for markets
Logique2 ............. 7700 - Swings and Roundabouts. Bargain hunters
Sean K ................. 7400 ish*. Something like the 2016 recovery.
Knobby22 ........... 7223 - A lot can go wrong
UMike.................. 7175 - Going to be tough year
Peter2 ................. 6950 - yes, another losing year
Smurf1976 ......... 6624 - No great disaster but general gloom
macca...................6543 - double bottom as future resistance
Craton ................. 6277 - My best guess (+/- 500)
Bill M .................... 5995 - War, Inflation, interest rates up
KevinBB ............... 5958 - As reluctant as I am ...
divs4eva ............... 5600 - using the 'broken clock system'
rcw1 ..................... 1637 - Dutch tulip mania**

*7400 ish. @Sean K .... will be 7400 unless you update. No 'ish' about it
** allowing 2 entries

Sean K · 2 January 2023

Dona Ferentes said:
With the year 2022 ending at 7222 for the XAO All Ordinaries, here are current entries for full CY2023.
Comp closes late Sunday 15th Jan.

rcw1 .................... 8567 - 1637 Dutch tulip mania NOT
Frugal.rock .......... 8333 - choppy until the bull arrives
greggles .............. 8090 - downside limited, commodities will boom
Dona F.................. 7850 - recessions are good for markets
Logique2 ............. 7700 - Swings and Roundabouts. Bargain hunters
Sean K ................. 7400 ish*. Something like the 2016 recovery.
Knobby22 ........... 7223 - A lot can go wrong
UMike.................. 7175 - Going to be tough year
Peter2 ................. 6950 - yes, another losing year
Smurf1976 ......... 6624 - No great disaster but general gloom
macca...................6543 - double bottom as future resistance
Craton ................. 6277 - My best guess (+/- 500)
Bill M .................... 5995 - War, Inflation, interest rates up
KevinBB ............... 5958 - As reluctant as I am ...
divs4eva ............... 5600 - using the 'broken clock system'
rcw1 ..................... 1637 - Dutch tulip mania**

*7400 ish. @Sean K .... will be 7400 unless you update. No 'ish' about it
** allowing 2 entries

* No ish about it.

** If rcw1 wins, aliens have invaded.

divs4ever · 2 January 2023

Sean K said:
** If rcw1 wins, aliens have invaded.

illegal migrants or extraterrestrials ? ( either way border security will be too busy switching to renewable energy to react promptly )

qldfrog · 2 January 2023

Ok, an " optimistic view",
Recession starts, initial market collapse, huge recession hits and USD collapses followed in a lesser way by AUD vs yuan and rouble / gold then pivot, hyper inflation on the way 20% plus next december:
xao shots to 8400 as everyone rushes back to minerals and PM mostly, bank dividends or anything pseudo real
8400 for me?

divs4ever · 2 January 2023

qldfrog said:
Recession starts, initial market collapse,

???

as far as i can tell we had been in an actual ( not 'official' ) recession most of 2022 , AND the NASDAQ is down more than 30% from the highs in January 2022 .

now the question is ... has the 'smart money ' noticed this , or are they still all 'sniffing flour ' ??

nothing like a bit of panic among the blue-bloods to get the media pumping and dumping

qldfrog · 3 January 2023

divs4ever said:
???

as far as i can tell we had been in an actual ( not 'official' ) recession most of 2022 , AND the NASDAQ is down more than 30% from the highs in January 2022 .

now the question is ... has the 'smart money ' noticed this , or are they still all 'sniffing flour ' ??

nothing like a bit of panic among the blue-bloods to get the media pumping and dumping

But so far, you do not have their ABC headlining about being in recession.
My own view is that a recession starts when a GDP is not increasing as much as extra debt added as deficit plus inflationary :
Look at it this way: you have $1m asset first of January, you borrow 100k during the year, inflation is 10% and by the end of the year, you have $1.15m in assets.
Do you celebrate you are 50k richer?
I do not ,even if taxman will come and tax my "profit" while the headline will be about growth and super profits.
We have been in a recession but not acknowledge.
It will happen as job will start falling and company closing, rates will be blamed and pivots from feds occur then.with inflation AND unemployment.
this can happen at the same time and will trigger a run onto shares then, but not before further fall on the asx, which has been so protected this year vs the US market BTW.

divs4ever · 3 January 2023

qldfrog said:
Do you celebrate you are 50k richer?

not really ,

but increased dividends cheer me up , or in some cases when the share prices drop and dividends hold firm ( and i can add more at a fair price )

Yearly XAO Prediction Thread

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