XAO Technical Analysis

Boggo · 22 May 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
Boggo, tech/a, is your count suggesting this is 5 of an abc from the April high or are you agreeing with me?

Yes, I think we have had the 5 of A down, hence I am tending to go with this picture, where the W.3 finished depends a bit on which book you read.
Either way I think we are at the beginning of B of an ABC that could finish below 3800 if C = A.
I am just learning this stuff so its just an amateur opinion though, I would like to see a more qualified view.

I am still short on LGL but I did buy BHP instalment warrants on Friday on the assumption that I have seen the end of A.

(Note: this chart is the XJO, click to expand)

Broadway · 23 May 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
Ok then, I will now.

It's interesting that you've called 'the bottom', whiskers.

This may well be the bottom, there are some factors suggesting it, but some factors are missing.

To support a bottom, epcr reached .92 this week (complacency in puts), there's pretty good volume in copper and other metals, as well as the aud and cad. BHP had moderate volume friday morning before the spi rally.

Against a bottom is the absence of serious volume in US stocks, etfs and futures.

But remember the march 2009 bottom was not obvious at all. Many people including pros missed it, hence they had to chase it up for months. No-one expected a 'V' bottom at that time. They were all thinking L or W, and I remember stories about fund managers who 'had' to buy in because they didnt want to be seen to have missed the bottom.

Was all the bad news then any different from the level of bad news we had this week?

No-one rings a bell when its the true bottom, I admire the courage to call it.

Personally I want to see more volume in US stocks, but you could be right whiskers, it could be 'the bottom' and we may never see these low levels again.

Anyone else think we have hit 'the bottom' this week?

tech/a · 23 May 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

Personally I think we are very close to this counts bottom and there is a chance it may have been made.
However I dont believe it is "THE" bottom.
Here is a short term and long term count I currently favor.
These counts can alter as price action alters current counts. but at this point looking forward this is how I see it.

"CLICK TO EXPAND"

dlineinvestor · 23 May 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

Tech,

Your analysis shows 2000 to be a possiblitliy in 2010 !

That would put bhp at an approx price of 16.00 ..... !

Do you really believe this to be a possibility ?

tech/a · 23 May 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

dlineinvestor said:
Tech,

Your analysis shows 2000 to be a possiblitliy in 2010 !

That would put bhp at an approx price of 16.00 ..... !

Do you really believe this to be a possibility ?

No

The Wave 5 extension shown is simply an extension of a fib ratio.
While nothing is impossible-----it is highly unlikely!

The_Snowman · 23 May 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

Boggo said:
Playing by the rules so far.
This was the view of the ASX 200 in MTP chart prediction on the 14th, the min target for W.5 at 4396 has arrived today.
The typical is predicted at 4285 !

(click to expand)

somehow, I am just not thinking that it is going up from here although some bounce is probably on the cards

blueray · 24 May 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

Just my obersavation, recently XAO seems to follow SSE more closely than it is to DOW. At 11:30 today, SSE opend and soon was up more than 2%, at the same time, XJO did a about turn and now it is up more than 1%

tech/a · 24 May 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

blueray said:
Just my obersavation, recently XAO seems to follow SSE more closely than it is to DOW. At 11:30 today, SSE opend and soon was up more than 2%, at the same time, XJO did a about turn and now it is up more than 1%

Maybe so but the analysis of the XJO
doesnt involve either the DJIA or the SSE in that so far presented.
Are you going to discuss the correlation and how it can be used to our advantage.
Would be an interesting exercise.

dlineinvestor · 24 May 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

No one can guarantee the outcome but perhaps you've all noticed the ominus ascending wedge pattern forming.
Appears to be a projected top out level of 4400.

skyQuake · 24 May 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

Missing a bit of volume on the wedge there..

SPI looks fairly bullish on the daily.

2days of running after all that crap earlier doesn't seem too much.

tech/a · 24 May 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

blueray said:
Just my obersavation, recently XAO seems to follow SSE more closely than it is to DOW. At 11:30 today, SSE opend and soon was up more than 2%, at the same time, XJO did a about turn and now it is up more than 1%

SSE not open today

Trembling Hand · 24 May 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

Thats wrong.

up 3.63%

lol how can the Nikkei be up -0.06% ?

blueray · 24 May 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
SSE not open today

Er... not too sure what you mean by "sse not open today", Shanghai composite index is open today and it is up more than 3% so far

tech/a · 24 May 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
Thats wrong.

up 3.63%

lol how can the Nikkei be up -0.06% ?

blueray said:
Er... not too sure what you mean by "sse not open today", Shanghai composite index is open today and it is up more than 3% so far

Better tell CNN then.

http://money.cnn.com/data/world_markets/asia/

Trembling Hand · 24 May 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

CNN??? Are you kidding? Up a negative amount just abouts sums up the worth of that data.

by the way Hong Kong, China & Japan have lunch breaks.

tech/a · 24 May 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

Good point.
I'm just quoting off their site.
This is the latest but chances are that will
change in an hr or so.
Shanghi is now up 3.14% which is what it was when it was closed!

Trembling Hand · 24 May 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

You want a free real time chart of China use this,

CSI300

http://www.google.com/finance?client=gd-stocks-gadget-1.0.0.2&q=SHA:000300

Shanghai,

http://www.google.com/finance?client=gd-stocks-gadget-1.0.0.2&q=SHA:000001

As usual the media focus on the wrong one because they are idiots. The CSI300 is the broader index which you will be following in 5 years time when China buys out the rest of the bankrupt US. The Chinese has just started trading futures on the CSI300 and surely will be the market for fellow punters looking for growth and liquidity when they open it to outside trading if the kospi is any indication of size.

dlineinvestor · 24 May 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

skyQuake said:
Missing a bit of volume on the wedge there

Yes IG aus200 doesn't have volume on this particular index.
I haven't found any charts showing the aus200 with volume ?

Kryzz · 24 May 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

dlineinvestor said:
Yes IG aus200 doesn't have volume on this particular index.
I haven't found any charts showing the aus200 with volume ?

This is norgate data with amibroker ..

Perhaps another low volume rally before further falls (re-test that old support level)?, U.S. futures currently in the red.

Trembling Hand · 24 May 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

Kryzz said:
U.S. futures currently in the red.

Best thing for this rally would be for the US to start the week down. IMO.

XAO Technical Analysis

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