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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

Well, since all the expert EW'ers seem to have deserted us lately, I'll hang out my latest postulation for some citique.

I have two most likely counts... slightly favor the white since that was my earlier analysis, but as time goes by I'm leaning more to the yellow.

Either way I expect a bottoming out soon.

PS: Logique, I think you're quite right here about Henry.

 

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Re: XAO Analysis

4500 looks important here.

The last 25 days or so have been incredible.

Either panic stations, or good moves to get out before we completely implode.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

4500 looks important as a potential support level but the combination of Labors proposed tax on the mining industry is dragging down resources and the European Sovereign debt crisis is slamming the financials.
The speed of the recent retrace on the xao from 5000 to 4520 is dramatic (near enough 500 points in 16 days, 10%) but is not as dramatic in comparison to the drop from 6434 (02-01-2008) to 5210 (22-01-2008) 19% in roughly the same number of trading days.But that was only the start of the sub prime fallout.
Is this recent drop the start of round two, it has broken all of my recent support lines?
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Here is the CBOE VIX weekly chart looking ugly compared to the last GFC

.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Actually the VIX is looking rather nice.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

In the words of Pauline, "please explain"??

cutz said:
Actually the VIX is looking rather nice.
Click to expand...

As an aside, the euro leaders have passed a $158 billion 'stabilization fund'. Obvious question, is this enough in the short term to arrest the recent drops in world markets? What do people feel will happen from here? Will market(s) pick up again in the short term and bounce of recent resistance levels? Further drops beyond this point would be based on fear alone.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

IFocus said:
Here is the CBOE VIX weekly chart looking ugly compared to the last GFC

.
Click to expand...

Just a bit of an aftershock... a wakeup call for those lethargic greeks and spaniards etc to stop buggering about protesting and bite the bullet, err get busy plugging some leaky cash holes instead of rocking the boat, before their boat sinks underneath them.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers you called.
Click to expand
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

lucifuge said:
As an aside, the euro leaders have passed a $158 billion 'stabilization fund'. Obvious question, is this enough in the short term to arrest the recent drops in world markets?
Click to expand...
Not saying we couldn't have an oversold rally, but in the near term I don't see the wider influences unwinding too quickly.

Still a hung parliament in the UK, and maybe another election needed this year. Still uncertainty of the european PIIGS economies. Still this ridiculous proposed RSPT in Australia (ie the 'Canadian miners stimulus package'...I bet the Canadians can hardly believe their luck). Gee, if the miners have to pay more tax, do you think they might just pass this straight on to customers via increases in their prices?? Where does this end up? In your power bills and mine.

Anyway, look for the FTSE100 to hold above 5,000, the Dow above 10,000, and the All ords above 4,000 (or 4,100 as Whiskers seems to be implying, but then I don't understand that mysterious alchemy called Elliott Waves).

My gut feeling is that the Europeans will eventually get it together, and that in the meantime the strengthening US economy will provide some stability in world markets. The V-shaped recovery just became a W that's all.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

What does the trumpet pattern in the chat herald?

A rebound? You could see good ol' Aussie optimism on Friday as bargain hunters moved to pick up resource stocks, before the XAO pulled back late. Doubt the super tax will have much effect beyond initial mining lobby outrage. We could well see a bounce this week, and the Sarkozy-led fighting fund to protect the Euro should bolster markets, for a while.

More likely, any rebound will be short-lived, and the XAO will break to the downside. European leaders and the ECB will have to do a lot more fancy footwork to assure markets the Euro zone won't crumble. Seems unlikely, but any whiff of bad news like another credit rating downgrade will further batter panicked markets.

Regardless, Eurodebt won't be resolved overnight and shockwaves will keep hitting recovering markets for months. Looks like we might be in for a ranging XAO somewhere between 4000 and 5000 this year. It seems the index will struggle to get much above 5000, when recent rises have all been driven by the blue chips. How high can BHP and the big four banks (which are what, nearly 40% of the market) keep going? BHP, Comm Bank and Westpac were near record highs in April, while most of the market lagged and retail investors remain obsessed with real estate.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
" EW'ers seem to have deserted us lately"
Click to expand...

Oh, Yeah.

On your chart, is that your count or the software one?

I originally looked at an impulse count for your wave 5, but in the end I leaned to an abc. But I've found that often the end result can be the same for different possible counts.

So it's still anxious times to see whether todays rebound kicks on, or is the proverbial bear market rally. I'm a little buoyed by the strength of todays rebound given the US finished lower Friday.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

The software.

There will be carnage on shorts before a continuation down to 4100 ish
 
Re: XAO Analysis

lucifuge said:
Further drops beyond this point would be based on fear alone.
Click to expand...
Or perhaps further drops would simply reflect the reality of the situation, i.e. that nothing much has changed other than a shifting around of paper, contaminating the reasonable balance sheets of e.g. Germany with the junk of Greece.

For the last two and a half years, there has simply been one artificial move after another. The fundamental problems of excessive debt are still there.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
" EW'ers seem to have deserted us lately"
Click to expand...

Some of us amateur EW's are still around and making a quiet squid rather than copping flak

Closed this out today, W.4 next do you think and then a final ride down on a W.5 ?

(click to expand)
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Looking back to the January - Febuary 2008 xao chart, it bounced for 5-6 days after the panic downward spike, then fell back to the low point over the next 30 trading days.
We had a bounce yesterday with the prospects of another rise today, will history repeat itself through May June 2010? Who is going to call it?
 
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