XAO Technical Analysis

explod · 29 January 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

Interesting takes above. If the Dow was to fall below 10,000 we will have some sparks I think.

I feel (and just a hunch) that the everyone outside of Wall Street has become sceptical of the Wall Street Jaw Boning Facade. As you note T/H the other markets are finding thier own paths now, albeit, those paths pointing south to some degree. However the sentiment of fear will only push these markets further down if the Dow was to plummet, or from another perspective, the few outside believers in Wall Street will add to the fuel.

Just my 2 cents.

Go Nuke · 29 January 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

I think we could see a possible re test of 4500.
4500 is also the 200 Day MA for extra support.

ALTHOUGH...the RSI hasn't been this low since the bottom on Mar 09!!

Oversold enough yet??

thresher · 29 January 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

Go Nuke said:
Oversold enough yet??

yeah maybe its time for small bounce here to around 4750

Go Nuke · 29 January 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

Indeed I should have quoted IF it closes under 4600 in the coming days.

nulla nulla · 4 February 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
Actually if you wanted to compare the XAO/XJO to anything I would be looking at these two risk/carry trade charts (I know others wouldn't )

The two graphs certainly align with the xao better than most other charts. We lifted slightly on the back of two 100 point rises on the djia but it appears the djia has come back to alignment with the xao (and asia?).

Broadway · 4 February 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

nulla nulla said:
The two graphs certainly align with the xao better than most other charts. We lifted slightly on the back of two 100 point rises on the djia but it appears the djia has come back to alignment with the xao (and asia?).

They not only align, they lead. The xao lags these charts.
I think the beauty of those 2 charts is that the price moves on the last 2 major corners (10th dec bottom,10th jan top) actually preceeded the price moves in the ES and XAO(check your charts). These are leading market charts. You could have made a killing and all you needed was these 2 charts. And all you needed to make them a little better was volume, and you could have picked the recent bottom 3 days ago.

The problem is that as soon as these type of relationships get too well known, they might start to break down.

nulla nulla · 6 February 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

Go Nuke said:
I think we could see a possible re test of 4500.
4500 is also the 200 Day MA for extra support.

ALTHOUGH...the RSI hasn't been this low since the bottom on Mar 09!!

Oversold enough yet??

Possible support levels at 4400, 4300 and 3750. It will be interesting to see who is first to aadvise that they have "minimal" exposure to Europe. Not that it will make any difference. Once the panic sets in, we are in for a bumpy ride down.

nulla nulla · 6 February 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

Amazing what a difference half an hour can make on the market. This mornings finish in the U.S. would appear to indicate that some component of the traders think todays sell down was a buying opportunity. The djia comming from over 100 points down as the sell off continued, to rally in the last half hour to finish up 10.5 points. Interesting because I expected there to be a bigger component of "pulling the money out for the weekend" causing their market to close down. The bargain hunters evidently thought otherwise.

The finish:

The DOW +10.05 +0.10% finishing on 10,012.23;
The NASDAQ +15.69 +0.74% finishing on 2,141.12;
The DAX -98.90;
The FTSE -78.39;
The Hang Seng -676.56; and
The Nikkei -298.89.

explod · 6 February 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

nulla nulla said:
Amazing what a difference half an hour can make on the market. This mornings finish in the U.S. would appear to indicate that some component of the traders think todays sell down was a buying opportunity. The djia comming from over 100 points down as the sell off continued, to rally in the last half hour to finish up 10.5 points. Interesting because I expected there to be a bigger component of "pulling the money out for the weekend" causing their market to close down. The bargain hunters evidently thought otherwise.

It is the work of what is called the PPP. The Plunge Protection team. They step in at stratiegic times to keep things rolling smoothly. This morning by coming in late, and half an hour before the close the volume of the day almost equalled the day before. this intervention buying turned the chart candle into a copybook reverse candle. I watched the last hour of it all.

Have to go up the street now, back to chat later

skc · 6 February 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

explod said:
It is the work of what is called the PPP. The Plunge Protection team. They step in at stratiegic times to keep things rolling smoothly. This morning by coming in late, and half an hour before the close the volume of the day almost equalled the day before. this intervention buying turned the chart candle into a copybook reverse candle. I watched the last hour of it all.

Have to go up the street now, back to chat later

Apparent there's some ECB meeting over the weekend to discuss some Greeks. So a short covering rally by the shorters to make sure they are not caught in case there are some resolutions coming out of such meeting.

Reminds me of Sept 08 when every weekend was so eventful.

Broadway · 6 February 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

explod said:
It is the work of what is called the PPP. The Plunge Protection team. They step in at stratiegic times to keep things rolling smoothly. This morning by coming in late, and half an hour before the close the volume of the day almost equalled the day before. this intervention buying turned the chart candle into a copybook reverse candle. I watched the last hour of it all.

Have to go up the street now, back to chat later

Before that rally there was 'bottom volume' in US etfs, stocks, oil, currencies, gold, usd, bonds, sycom etc etc.

Did the PPT do all that?

explod · 6 February 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

Broadway said:
Before that rally there was 'bottom volume' in US etfs, stocks, oil, currencies, gold, usd, bonds, sycom etc etc.

Did the PPT do all that?

Almost everything runs on and follows stock market sentiment, without that the US have little else, no GDP of value, falling currency value (-100% from a few years back), banks going broke by the day, property still going down to nothing and so on adinfanitum. It is all percieved market sentiment and so strong that most other world markets follow like blind sheep, up and down day by day. So as it turns up or down all the other (so called) percieved little important bits follow.

This may be a bit over simplistic perhaps, but on the track and sometimes required to help move the mist of c..pola out of the eyes.

skyQuake · 6 February 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

Broadway said:
Before that rally there was 'bottom volume' in US etfs, stocks, oil, currencies, gold, usd, bonds, sycom etc etc.

Did the PPT do all that?

If they keep doing that I want to join! Picking the bottom in EVERY move must be profitable

Trembling Hand · 6 February 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

explod said:
Almost everything runs on and follows stock market sentiment, without that the US have little else, no GDP of value, falling currency value (-100% from a few years back), banks going broke by the day, property still going down to nothing and so on adinfanitum. It is all percieved market sentiment and so strong that most other world markets follow like blind sheep, up and down day by day. So as it turns up or down all the other (so called) percieved little important bits follow.

Explod it would be good if you could approach your conspiracy with a little more factual info and recall to give them some credibility.

looking at it from my info the day went like this,

Europe opens down after a failure of Asia to bounce off lows,

US futs drift down from the pressure. Currencies & Commods like wise.

30 mins before the US cash open the US futs are back to flat.

@ about 3:00am Melbourne time oil takes it in the neck. Near on 5% in 30 mins. rumours of every type start flying.

Us equities follows oil down as do currencies and other commods.

Oil selling stops and starts to rise. Now at this point you have ALL longs for the week washed out and into cash and a stack of shorts holding and in profit. as well as ever Johny come lately just piling into new shorts for the last trade of the week.

Story starts that the smashing of oil was a hedgie blowing up and having to liquidate. Whats gonna happen?? logically?? Shorts are going to be caught having to cover into the close of a raising market after a panic sell. result?

just another squeeze to some - to others a conspiracy.

explod · 6 February 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
Explod it would be good if you could approach your conspiracy with a little more factual info and recall to give them some credibility.

Story starts that the smashing of oil was a hedgie blowing up and having to liquidate. Whats gonna happen?? logically?? Shorts are going to be caught having to cover into the close of a raising market after a panic sell. result?

just another squeeze to some - to others a conspiracy.

Yep, as I said, a bit oversimplistic, wonder about that "hedgie blowing up" though, wonder how that got going, or is there something to it T/H ?

Trembling Hand · 6 February 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

explod said:
Yep, as I said, a bit oversimplistic, wonder about that "hedgie blowing up" though, wonder how that got going, or is there something to it T/H ?

see oil chart.

EDIT; Oh see last post in oil thread.

Naked shorts · 6 February 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
see oil chart.

EDIT; Oh see last post in oil thread.

Please advise me as to what kind of retard would liquidate like that?

More like thats the rumor going around so all the muppets start buying into the move.

Trembling Hand · 6 February 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

Naked shorts said:
Please advise me as to what kind of retard would liquidate like that?

More like thats the rumor going around so all the muppets start buying into the move.

One thats been busted by a margin call. Plenty of records of your "retards" happening before.

nomore4s · 6 February 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

Naked shorts said:
Please advise me as to what kind of retard would liquidate like that?

More like thats the rumor going around so all the muppets start buying into the move.

um, a retard that is forced to sell out of their position maybe?

Naked shorts · 6 February 2010

Re: XAO Analysis

Plenty of big traders who are smart enough to scale out positions before they are hit by a margin call and are forced to drop 20k something lots on the market in 15mins. It just seem like such a stupid mistake to make that I'm finding it hard to believe... During the GFC, yeah, but not now.

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