Re: XAO Analysis
not sold on 3700 - all the results/data are pretty good. 4100 will be a 20% drop, and a bear market.
Agree Beerwm, expect we'll hang around this area a while before resuming the trek towards 5000.
And funny how charts seem to add so much weight with some people. Yet Warren Buffet manages very well without them "stopped tech analysis when I turned charts upsidedown, got the same answers" and he has given me more confidence this week with his Burlington Northern play.
Compelling quotes from recent Reserve Bank presentation... "Perhaps nowhere is the impact clearer than in the structure of our international trade, especially our exports. The recent trade data shows that Australia's four most important merchandise export destinations this year have been China, Japan, South Korea and India - all in Asia. The fifth largest is United States. Just six years ago US was ranked 2nd. Collectively, these four large Asian trading partners have accounted for around 55% of our total exports of goods over the past 12 months.
Adding in the rest of Asia, the figure is around 70%"
Elsewhere "As we have seen recently,
the region has the capability to grow strongly through doemstic, not exernal demand. This really should not come as a surprise. After all the US economy, with a few hundred miilion people, has grown for many decades largely on the back of domestic, rather than foreign demend. There is no reason that the approxiamtely 3.5 billion people in Asia cannot do the same. It ultimately comes down to the policy choices that are made".
The report of 19th Oct by Assistant Governor, Philip Lowe contains a lot of other objective reasoning from a very credible institution.
This perspective, and somewhat reinforced by Buffett in the US still chugging away, means far more to me than any charts I see. Fundamentals analyses, and in the case of Buffett decision, based on his fundamental anlysis vs... tea leaves. Am being a little facetious as appreciate the informed chartists refer to fundamentals and also look for the next resistance levels etc, so no reflection on Dark1975 or nomore4s. Just that I place more weight on analysis of where we are and the outlook, based on more dynamics than a chart of where we've been.