XAO Technical Analysis

TheAbyss · 12 December 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
Really?? it just lost $2 in a blink. and the US$ is gaining!

I mustn't be seeing the up to the minute data you are TH.

Oil is up significantly since its recent lows is my piont and it will increase further if the OPEC reduce as predicted. That plus the billions being spent by the US must impact on the $US which in turn will see POO and Gold increase which we have already started to see.

All just my opinion TH.

Oil as i see it is

Brent crude
(IPE)
February 2009
($US per bbl.) 45.04 0.99 +2.25% 10/12 4:00 PM
Time: 1 week | 1 month | 6 months | 1 year
Last: 45.04Settle: n/aHigh: 47.68Low: 43.56
Crude oil
(NYMEX)
January 2009
($US per bbl.) 47.98 4.46 +10.25% 12/12 6:28 AM

chops_a_must · 12 December 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

The USD has been crumbling on the expectation the US will go on printing money indefinitely.

The halt of that expectation will put a cat amongst the pigeons.

And all that is now yesterday's results. Likely to be reversed in one session.

>Apocalypto< · 12 December 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

chops_a_must said:
The USD has been crumbling on the expectation the US will go on printing money indefinitely.

The halt of that expectation will put a cat amongst the pigeons.

And all that is now yesterday's results. Likely to be reversed in one session.

Quite the strong technical break on the USD monthly chart here chops.

MRC & Co · 12 December 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

>Apocalypto< said:
Quite the strong technical break on the USD monthly chart here chops.

Yeh, trendlines like that can be a very useful tool.

But still making LHs and LLs. If this could form a HL and a HH now, could be something.

>Apocalypto< · 12 December 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

MRC & Co said:
Yeh, trendlines like that can be a very useful tool.

But still making LHs and LLs. If this could form a HL and a HH now, could be something.

hey MRC,

that's the million dollar pattern hey.

you have to remember with that chart that is breaking out of a bear market from 2001!

I totally agree we need a HL to confirm it. I am watching the price point of 80-75 as a high importance area. we will have our answers in months to come aye!

Cheers

MRC & Co · 12 December 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Yeh, interesting chart, thx.

Markets are surely fun to watch for the moment. Nikkei today had a several % flick in a few seconds at open! WTF, never see an index of that magnitude do something like that!

drsmith · 12 December 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Dow futures look quiet grim at the moment.

Over the past 12 weeks the all ords has fallen 6 times on a Monday. Of those 6 times it has subsequently fallen 5 times on the following Tuesday. Currently the index is about 120 points above it's lowest close.

Discalimer:
A day is a long time in economics at the moment let alone a Friday and a weekend for US politicians to scratch their heads over auto bailouts before the Australian market re-opens on Monday. If our market does fall on Monday, past trends cannot be relied upon as an indicator of future performance.

TheAbyss · 12 December 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
Really?? it just lost $2 in a blink. and the US$ is gaining!

Note to self, think harder. Less cars equals less oil required. Not sure how i missed that correlation.

Another lesson learned.

CamKawa · 15 December 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Anyone thinking that XAO may sell off after the auto maker bail-out is announced?

saiter · 15 December 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

CamKawa said:
Anyone thinking that XAO may sell off after the auto maker bail-out is announced?

Well it looks like a failed flag to me, but if the XAO ends up closing on the opposite end in the next few days then that'd be a failed failed signal... (bullish?)

MS+Tradesim · 17 December 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Big picture food for thought....

Since 1900 there have only been 4 occasions where shares fell for two consecutive years. In 13 instances a negative year was followed by a positive year roughly equal or greater in %age terms (open to close, NOT high to low). In the last 28 years every negative year has been followed by a positive year of roughly equal or greater magnitude (open to close). On the other side, 3 out of the 4 consecutive year falls over the century involved similar sized drops. This year so far, we are down about the 45% mark which would make it the worst year in terms of open to close.

On the side of going up we have central banks running the presses hot leading to an inflation driven recovery in asset prices (though possibly still losing value in real terms). On the negative side the real damage to the global economies is such that a second falling year is a very real possibility.

[rhetorical]
So next year do we go up by >= 45% or down another 30-50? Bets?
[/rhetorical]

Source for second chart

Naked shorts · 17 December 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

MS+Tradesim said:
Big picture food for thought....

Since 1900 there have only been 4 occasions where shares fell for two consecutive years. In 13 instances a negative year was followed by a positive year roughly equal or greater in %age terms (open to close, NOT high to low). In the last 28 years every negative year has been followed by a positive year of roughly equal or greater magnitude (open to close). On the other side, 3 out of the 4 consecutive year falls over the century involved similar sized drops. This year so far, we are down about the 45% mark which would make it the worst year in terms of open to close.

On the side of going up we have central banks running the presses hot leading to an inflation driven recovery in asset prices (though possibly still losing value in real terms). On the negative side the real damage to the global economies is such that a second falling year is a very real possibility.

[rhetorical]
So next year do we go up by >= 45% or down another 30-50? Bets?
[/rhetorical]

Source for second chart

You do know that they change the companies that are included in the index? it isn't a true indicator of the overall market.

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/po..._asxallo/2,3,2,8,0,0,0,0,0,4,1,0,0,0,0,0.html

jono_oz · 17 December 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Hey guys just wondering if anyone can explain why this is happening and why it is not talked about in the media??
It seems since the middle of November the XAO has just stalled while the rest of the world has gone generally up.

MS+Tradesim · 17 December 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Naked shorts said:
You do know that they change the companies that are included in the index? it isn't a true indicator of the overall market.

Ummm....yes, I do know that and for this purpose it's irrelevant. It's useful as a sentiment indicator. Regardless of the specific makeup of a broad market index in any given year, it will still broadly and roughly reflect how shares as a group are being treated.

waz · 17 December 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

I was wondering the same thing and could not find an answer.
Which is why I have gone short on the DJ and FTSE and long on the Aussie200.

At the moment I think its on of the best pair trade.

So far its been paying off.

Sunder · 17 December 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

waz said:
I was wondering the same thing and could not find an answer.
Which is why I have gone short on the DJ and FTSE and long on the Aussie200.

At the moment I think its on of the best pair trade.

So far its been paying off.

I thought it was because as a generalisation, Australia, as a primary producer, gets hit hardest and is the last to recover when the reason for the hit is production based.

So while we might have done well out of the Asian Crisis and the Tech wreck, which were finance and bubble related, this one, which is global recession based, is hitting us harder.

Naked shorts · 17 December 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

MS+Tradesim said:
it will still broadly and roughly reflect how shares as a group are being treated.

Your right about the rough part. It can be deceiving to people because they think the whole market is going up and everything will be rosey from now on when instead the old companies going bankrupt get taken off (but are still in the market, have paying customers and employees)...and the high growth ones get added.

chops_a_must · 17 December 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Sunder said:
I thought it was because as a generalisation, Australia, as a primary producer, gets hit hardest and is the last to recover when the reason for the hit is production based.

So while we might have done well out of the Asian Crisis and the Tech wreck, which were finance and bubble related, this one, which is global recession based, is hitting us harder.

I think you'll find in an inflationary environment we will generally do well.

A lot of things that are core, agribusiness, gold, basic minerals that should theoretically do well in high inflationary periods, the utmost basics, we produce a lot of.

And it seems to be this that is most on the minds at the moment.

As for the charts... we are at an important junction...

dhukka · 17 December 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

chops_a_must said:
I think you'll find in an inflationary environment we will generally do well.

A lot of things that are core, agribusiness, gold, basic minerals that should theoretically do well in high inflationary periods, the utmost basics, we produce a lot of.

Agreed they do well in inflationary environments but we won't see one of those for some time. The US just recorded it's biggest 2 month decline in inflation since 1932. Inflation is the problem at the moment, the RBA along with other central banks will have their hands full trying to prevent deflation in the next 12 months.

chops_a_must · 18 December 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

We are certainly in deflation right now.

There is no doubt about that.

But I get the feeling the market is trying to work out where the printed money is going to pop up. It may be 12 months, or 3 years. And it may pop up in something well before there is "official" inflation.

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