You'll have egg on your face when it stays exactly the same!!
Given the performance today though the direction was obvious - Down.Well, well. No-one bothering to make comment on the pathetic performance of the XAO today and perhaps where to from here?
Santa rally? (Or will the Grinch steal the Christmas rally?)
I have only been on this forum for a little while, but I am getting the idea that 60-70 % of the members seem to be experts at everything and yet dont really seem to trade much of anything.
I still have my position open (long XJO , short BHP - Warrants) - and showing an increasing profit as BHP comes back more in line with XJO (which obviously I hope will continue to happen over next few weeks)
I find the people that actually trade have a much lower accuracy level as far as calls. It aint about being right. IMHO
You guys that are so sure that the direction is down - are you trading that way ??
I have only been on this forum for a little while, but I am getting the idea that 60-70 % of the members seem to be experts at everything and yet dont really seem to trade much of anything.
Is anyone actually trading the xjo at the moment ??
I still have my position open (long XJO , short BHP - Warrants) - and showing an increasing profit as BHP comes back more in line with XJO (which obviously I hope will continue to happen over next few weeks)
Maybe its just me - but Im not going to express my thoughts on a subject unless im willing to put my money behind it.
Ok, then I'll make it simple just for you. It's a bear market. The trend is down. Clear enough?
The trend was down in Feb and it was down in May and it was down in Sep and it's down now. Not sideways, not bottom, not ranging but down. Trade the rallies if you like, but keep near the exits.
I would expect 4000 rather than 5000, but that's wave stuff and I don't do waves. I do fundamentals, and they're bad and getting worse.
There are no good signs for the AUD. It will track the CRB for now, and that hasn't recovered. However, the USD has peaked and may fall back so we could get a higher AUD eventually.
If you want a tip, try GOLD.
well if you had said that in the first place I would have not had any issues.
Folks,
An observation and some thoughts:
Being a relatively new member to ASF, I have seen a growing number of negative threads in this forum that hammer on people's trading analysis, methodology, styles etc.
I looked back at some of the posts in this thread before the decline started on the XAO (over 12 months back) and saw that the posts were generally very polite, funny, useful and enjoyable (there's probably a few there that I didn't see that weren't so nice). But ultimately the level of negativity was low.
The way I'm approaching this bear market (and forum) is: I know the cycle of the market is down as a result of the declining social mood and it will probably get a lot worse. So rather than join in and hammer on people that disagree with me (and there's plenty that do) - I'll just continue to do what I'm doing, if there are people in the forum that gain value out of what I provide then that's a good thing.
In addition, I have learned much from people's discussions here, trading strategy, wins and losses alike. I really don't care if people are traders or not - what I'm looking for is valuable information that could benefit my strategy, others I pass it to, or perhaps additional ideas I can give you to consider. I like to read about the wins and losses, what does and doesn't work and I accept not everyone will agree or disagree with what's posted.
There are a heap of people that visit this forum seeking insights, ideas, innovations that they may successfully use - or want to discuss further with you in a meaningful way, and is ultimately the basis behind this forum. But it is the members that will decide this in their posts.
of course thats only an opinion or speculation and we can only trade the short term moves and allow winners to run so have to be ready to change with the trend
Not posted for a while but nothing has changed from my post in September.Still the same count but further advanced.
Below is my preffered count although there is a less likely (i.m.o) count which has the latest low as being the completion of the wave C down.If that's the case the low is in.
I strongly favour another leg down as time wise it seems to fit better.
It's nice to see a sensible count Porper.
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