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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

Boggo said:
Yep, you were right Davo, just not sure which one though...
Click to expand...

Thanks for that! You obviously have real skill in finding old posts. Looks like I did better than I remembered, although I think you may have missed an old post back in April-May about the crash due in October. This was from a time when the index was above 5000 and some silly people thought that was the bottom.

So, originally I expected 4000-4500 in October, and that got close.

Once we hit the 4000 and it became clear the fundamentals were getting worse, I updated my forecast to 3200-3500, specifically around 3400. No rocket science -- these are simply my readings of the old support levels coupled with knowledge of fundamentals. That got close too.

Now I'm saying we are in another bear rally. We will revisit 3200-3400 at least once more and most likely it will not hold. If that is so, the next target is about 2900. It may take weeks or months, but definitely by May.

I say that figures of this order are predictable based on fundamentals, not charting. You guys know far more about waves than I ever want to, but I do not accept that your waves have any long term predictive power. For that you need fundamentals.

I reject any possibility of figures like 1500 based on fundamentals as we know them. It will take a major catastrophe such as a US Treasury default or war with China to make that a possibility. Events like that cannot be found in charts or predicted, so there is no point trying.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

davo8 said:
Thanks for that! You obviously have real skill in finding old posts. Looks like I did better than I remembered, although I think you may have missed an old post back in April-May about the crash due in October.
Click to expand...

r u serious?

all I got from your posts was left no right, no left no right. I figured you were in some type of tail spin!

I am thinking we will get to 3900 at least on this rally. have a higher out look of 4300. Wavepicker is also thinking a longer rally, with 5000 as a target. I am not in disagreement.

Also seeing good signs in the FX markets EUR and AUD vs the USD putting in bottoms. AUD I am thinking .70 - .77

see what happens.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

A few people here are predicting a rally which may well happen. However, not everyone shares your confidence. IB doesn't have one single share to lend out to short with on any top ASX200 company. Food for thought...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

CamKawa said:
A few people here are predicting a rally which may well happen. However, not everyone shares your confidence. IB doesn't have one single share to lend out to short with on any top ASX200 company. Food for thought...
Click to expand...

Somebody here, don't know who, don't know when, said the bottom will be when the average joe's are all shorting stocks.

If there are none left to short I'd imagine it must be a good sign.

I believe it's a bottom just based on the fact fuel is back under $1, interest rates are falling. I thought to myself, so where is the problem? People have more money, which we have to spend on something, as long as companies are around to sell to them they'll profit.

All the fluff seems to have dissapeared from the market now, so I'm betting the markets drop to 3200 was just something people needed to see before they start piling their cash back into the market.

I'm guessing another drop near 3200 but not lower.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

CamKawa said:
A few people here are predicting a rally which may well happen. However, not everyone shares your confidence. IB doesn't have one single share to lend out to short with on any top ASX200 company. Food for thought...
Click to expand...

Another way to look at it - if the market continues to rally, those that are short would need to buy to close if they want out - adding a lot of extra buying pressure.

Even if the market goes down again, they still have to close at some time and it will still bring buying pressure back into the market albeit at lower prices.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Struzball said:
Somebody here, don't know who, don't know when, said the bottom will be when the average joe's are all shorting stocks.

If there are none left to short I'd imagine it must be a good sign.
Click to expand...
Who knows? What I do know is that the psychology in all this is amazing.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Struzball said:
Somebody here, don't know who, don't know when, said the bottom will be when the average joe's are all shorting stocks.
Click to expand...
Is the average Joes smart enough to know

1. what short selling is and
2. how to short sell.
3. Can you short sell with Comsuck and ETrade?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Many joe averages would muck around with CFD's?

Tomorrow could be another catalyst for the market to gradually improve... if RBA continues to wear the brown pants and lowers rates by another 1%, savings accounts at this time next week are going to be offering at best 4.5%

With those sort of pissant rates, those with money on the sidelines may well be tempted to start putting more and more cash into the market. After all, not hard to find something that pays a 4.5% fully franked divvy at the moment.

As soon as the market at least stabilises, this will encourage more and more to start putting their money in, and eventually there will be a firm base of "buy and hold" investors, which may help set a floor for the market.

I'm kind of waiting on a print of a higher-low (say 3500), and I'm sure others are as well before committing, and well, that's probably the start of XAO uptrend . If not, wait until the next attempt at 3000 or wherever that may be.
 
Re: XAO Analysis


4.5% (even if in reality is negative - hopefully deflation will kick in though ) is still a damn-sight better than -20% though; which can happen over a matter of days in this market. So, I really don't expect a massive pour of folk into the market, not yet at least.

People in cash are in cash for a reason - they're waiting the volatility to end, and for an uptrend to begin.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I need to find a better way to entertain myself these holidays

Anyone else seeing us go green by the close today? Certainly seems to be a convincing slow move up ... and the lack of large swings seems encouraging (to me) as well. Couldn't resist having a little nibble Watch it go down 120pts now
 
Re: XAO Analysis

DJI has had a good bounce.

Bear market rally? Suckers rally?

Good opportunity to take some off the table?

Stocks Have Best 5 Days in 75 Years

Is DJI of course, but I'm sure XAO has had a good week or so.

Probably just a speed bump right?

Destined to break the 50% ish correction too ......

Or, it's factored in...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
DJI has had a good bounce.

Bear market rally? Suckers rally?

Good opportunity to take some off the table?

Stocks Have Best 5 Days in 75 Years
Click to expand...

Yeh, that was my thought too Kennas.

But this is traditionally a very bullish time of year, started right on time, mid-late November. Goes through to start of Jan from memory, according to monthly seasonality.

So I reckon it's either gonna go up, or down.

 
Re: XAO Analysis


Ok, then I'll make it simple just for you. It's a bear market. The trend is down. Clear enough?

The trend was down in Feb and it was down in May and it was down in Sep and it's down now. Not sideways, not bottom, not ranging but down. Trade the rallies if you like, but keep near the exits.

I would expect 4000 rather than 5000, but that's wave stuff and I don't do waves. I do fundamentals, and they're bad and getting worse.

There are no good signs for the AUD. It will track the CRB for now, and that hasn't recovered. However, the USD has peaked and may fall back so we could get a higher AUD eventually.

If you want a tip, try GOLD.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Real1ty said:
Well not in an XAO analysis thread anyway
Click to expand...

Well, well. No-one bothering to make comment on the pathetic performance of the XAO today and perhaps where to from here?

Is it a case of only dead-cat bounces being worthy of hype? Shame, optimists, shame. There are always two sides to a story.

Every share market around the planet has now finished with a final hour dive. No short cover rallies. No signs of bounce back.

Surprise, surprise ... we are now reliably informed that the US has been in recession for the past year and that IR cuts are no longer possible. Well, blow me down with a feather, but IMHO that spells further trouble for the planet.

Dead cats or no dead cats, I'll tip the XAO to hit 3,000 (or less) after trading re-opens in the New Year after the Xmas break.

Have a Merry Xmas.

:santa:
 
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