XAO Technical Analysis

Re: XAO Analysis

Some are saying that the bottom has been found or a bounce along, but it will be very interesting once the Fed/ Media finally states that the US is actual in a recession. When the "Fat Lady" has finally sung, that's the time when we'll see the real bottom.

Re: XAO Analysis

Our recent bottom of 3939 should be well and truly tested today I believe..
Might even break on open.
Look out for a volatile day today..
The bear run has a while to get yet me thinks...

Re: XAO Analysis

Ruincity said:

Our recent bottom of 3939 should be well and truly tested today I believe..
Might even break on open.
Look out for a volatile day today..
The bear run has a while to get yet me thinks...

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I dunno.

Bears are so passe.

I thunk we should re-term "Bear Market " to "Moose Market" in honor of tha great Lady Palin. Nice alliteration, too.

Gee willikers, it sounds much better to say "Dagnabbit - we done been [size=+1]MOOSED[/size] by them thar' banker boys" - rather than the tamer "BEARED".

You know it makes sense.....

:bananasmi

Re: XAO Analysis

Captain G said:

Some are saying that the bottom has been found or a bounce along, but it will be very interesting once the Fed/ Media finally states that the US is actual in a recession. When the "Fat Lady" has finally sung, that's the time when we'll see the real bottom.

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By the time the US Fed/Media admits they are in a recession, it would be all over. The 2 x negative GDP per quarter measure for recession is plain stupid.

Re: XAO Analysis

Aussiejeff said:

I dunno.

Bears are so passe.

I thunk we should re-term "Bear Market " to "Moose Market" in honor of tha great Lady Palin. Nice alliteration, too.


:bananasmi

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LOL, now that's Gold.....:bier:

Analysisng what is there.

Noticed an increasing number of posters on this thread posting emotion rather than analysis recently - the I feel/think it will....... post.
I believe that is because it simply is extremely difficult to pick dirrection on a short term basis when that short term it is extremely volatile as in the last couple of weeks, whether or not the "analysis" is TA or FA or both.
So stop guessing in a turbulent timeframe - zoom in to intraday (trades are easy because there is a lot of long quick moves) or zoom out towards the Medium Term.
It is also important to understand why the day to day market is so choppy and fundamentals are the key reason here - we are simply in a "really don't know yet period" - like waiting for tthe third umpire's decission.
There were some excellent posts awhile back (not mine) on the Imminent & Severe Market Downturn thread pointing to this current period (possibly running for a couple of years) when the market would digest poorer co results before heading further south (or consolidating) depending how bad they were.
It also seems to me that chartists are trying to predict ST dirrection from chart patterns alone - sorry, it just ain't possible in times like these.
I would mention that I use charts quite a bit for "up to date" pictures of what is and has happened but I never give precedence to charts over significant unexpected fundamentals and they abound atm.
In T/A terms only, the following is how I see the XJO/XAO on what I referred to above as a "zoom out" view.
the 50 CM oscillator can give early warnings of momentum dirrection change with "confirmation" of general direction by the 100day LR trace.
atm I note a falling wedge formation but the daily downtrend (lower lows and lower highs) still rules for now.
As for the "seriously oversold it must go up" brigade, sorry don't agree - this downturn has been more "seriously oversold" as is apparent from the CM oscillator but that did not result in a lot of upside and the current ST daily churn is beginning to ease this quite a bit.
And jumping on my cycle I seem to be hitting a low spot every 160days both on price and momentum, and the next low is due same time as Santa, unless the fundamentals change that.
All those qualifications?? Yes, unfortunately, but then the chart has some pretty coloured bits.

Re: XAO Analysis

For anybody who wants the 100 year data to plug into their charting program to study for any patterns or ideas:

http://www.wrenresearch.com.au/downloads/index.htm

(monthly average scale - but seems to correspond to charts posted earlier)

Re: XAO Analysis

gfresh said:

For anybody who wants the 100 year data to plug into their charting program to study for any patterns or ideas:

http://www.wrenresearch.com.au/downloads/index.htm

(monthly average scale - but seems to correspond to charts posted earlier)

Click to expand...

Thanks GF, useful data

Re: XAO Analysis

Certain Elliott Wavers on this board saying we are in triangle wave 4’s at present with wave 5 now in progress. Others saying pennants etc…..

The SP500 and Dow are also showing triangle patterns with EW gurus abroad touting that another wave 5 selloff is on the cards.

Although I am a novice at EW, I have briefly looked at Mastering Elliott Wave by Neely and some of the work of the late Zoran Gayer whom based his work on that of Neely.

On top of the conventional EW patterns in Elliott wave Principle by Frost and Prechter these guys are also working with some additional patterns. In the case of the SP500 and DJI presently , which looks like a conventional wave 4 triangle, they also talk about ENDING TRIANGLES, which is basically a failure of the wave 5 to occur. This would be akin to a bottom and then minor degree waves 1 and 2 to the upside(such a pattern also look like a triangle!!

Just another possibility before to consider before assuming a wave 5 always will occur…….


STONER

Re: XAO Analysis

Boy oh Boy!! she has a bad felling about her today.

Re: XAO Analysis

hello,

short covers must rally now

oh, but shorts banned

wonderful stuffs for a bargain


thankyou,
aussiebots

Re: XAO Analysis

We love Sam76



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fembots

Re: XAO Analysis

How would you be if you bought into this mornings sucker rally? You'd be facing a rather sobering weekend I would have thought. Support at the 2003 low of 2700 maybe?

Re: XAO Analysis

stoner said:

Certain Elliott Wavers on this board saying we are in triangle wave 4’s at present with wave 5 now in progress. Others saying pennants etc…..

The SP500 and Dow are also showing triangle patterns with EW gurus abroad touting that another wave 5 selloff is on the cards.

Although I am a novice at EW, I have briefly looked at Mastering Elliott Wave by Neely and some of the work of the late Zoran Gayer whom based his work on that of Neely.

On top of the conventional EW patterns in Elliott wave Principle by Frost and Prechter these guys are also working with some additional patterns. In the case of the SP500 and DJI presently , which looks like a conventional wave 4 triangle, they also talk about ENDING TRIANGLES, which is basically a failure of the wave 5 to occur. This would be akin to a bottom and then minor degree waves 1 and 2 to the upside(such a pattern also look like a triangle!!

Just another possibility before to consider before assuming a wave 5 always will occur…….


STONER

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tech analysis is ALWAYS trumped by fundamentals stoner.
please note I did not say fundamental analysis because I think that TA will generally trump FA because of the timing thing but that will be debateable.
I have had an eye on EW for a decade or so and while I believe there is something in it, the bottom line is that you need to count the successful wavers who can say I made $Xm and did it thanks to EW and will show your my trades.
fact:-The market and liquid stocks move in a sawtooth fashion whether going up, down or sideways.
as EW has generally had quite mixed results and an EW "industry" had developed they needed more options to fit the original rigid wave rules and to be able to "adjust" counts when wrong so therefore pirated quite a few other T/A patterns and ratios such as fibonachi, flags, candle patterns, and X-axis "time" waves etc - It is now pretty much in the paralysis by analysis bucket.
These days a wave is a wave, a triangle is a wave, a flag is a wave, a wedge is a wave; even a spade is a wave.

Re: XAO Analysis

treefrog said:

tech analysis is ALWAYS trumped by fundamentals stoner.
please note I did not say fundamental analysis because I think that TA will generally trump FA because of the timing thing but that will be debateable.
I have had an eye on EW for a decade or so and while I believe there is something in it, the bottom line is that you need to count the successful wavers who can say I made $Xm and did it thanks to EW and will show your my trades.
fact:-The market and liquid stocks move in a sawtooth fashion whether going up, down or sideways.
as EW has generally had quite mixed results and an EW "industry" had developed they needed more options to fit the original rigid wave rules and to be able to "adjust" counts when wrong so therefore pirated quite a few other T/A patterns and ratios such as fibonachi, flags, candle patterns, and X-axis "time" waves etc - It is now pretty much in the paralysis by analysis bucket.
These days a wave is a wave, a triangle is a wave, a flag is a wave, a wedge is a wave; even a spade is a wave.

Click to expand...

Clearly demonstrated lack of understanding of Elliott Application.

Re: XAO Analysis

hello,

the mods have no humour

thankyou
chopbots

Re: XAO Analysis

chops_a_must said:

hello,

the mods have no humour

thankyou
chopbots

Click to expand...

hello,

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thankyou
modbots

Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:

Clearly demonstrated lack of understanding of Elliott Application.

Click to expand...

"Re: The Elliott Wave Analysis Thread
All my EW skills come from the old school - Prechter's classic EW. Combined with the simplicity of Miner's style.
I heard there is another school that is based around Glenn Neely teachings. Is it any worth to read his book? I am content around the classic style but I try to keep and open mind to any new idea."

quite true tech, but which one??

Re: XAO Analysis

T/F.

While I understand its a matter in all cases of personal interpretation (Not the counts but the application of E/W).There are in my view some serious mis understandings with regard to this analysis.
Which limits and in many cases excludes people from using E/W through lack of practical application knowledge.

I dont have the time to go through this just now but think it worth placing this in its own thread perhaps titled "Elliott Wave a better understanding of practical application".

People in my view (and ofcourse it can be argued that my view is just mine).

Complicate application.
I really dont think you have to be as good as Prechter or Radge or Naley

Re: XAO Analysis

Personally thinking that many users of the EW application HERE need to get a better understanding of its workings too .......no offense intended , blah blah blah

cant say ive seen too many accurate callings on situations of late by those that proffess its greatness and ready to jump at anyone that points out that it aint no better than a ruler and pencil and ANY other TA based analysis.

i think ive had this discussion before , but hey nothing like pointing out the bleedin obvious from time to time

thankyou