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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

I'd be surprised if we didn't hold our 10th Oct low by today's close. At some point soon we have to inhale before we can blow more wind into our sails (whichever way she goes).

Point of reference regards last few Bollinger expansions....if we can hold these lows we will have another run down that seems to exhaust as the green bands expand out to 28%. Note, its not usual that the lower red band can keep separating further away and to the outside of the longer term green bands without some pullback (I know you can't see it well on this pic).
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

With the movement on BHP & RIO today, you'd almost swear they were both ready to go bust? They dropped about as much as Babcock & Brown today.

Must say I'm very tempted to go into RIO at these prices, I never even thought with this crisis we would see it trading in this price range again.

Only time will tell how much lower it can go, but another day like this and I think it will really tempt me to buy heavily.

Anyone else feeling this itch?
 
Re: XAO Analysis


No itch with me. Fear will continue to push things down. With the US going down the tubes our market will follow the Dow all the way, China is shutting some of its doors. I had the idea some months ago that if BHP hit $20 I would be looking seriously at it. With what we have witnessed in the last few weeks I think it will be a LONG time before even blue chips recover.

Dont' follow me, not qualified and have been wrong before.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

M34N said:
Anyone else feeling this itch?
Click to expand...
Yes, had my finger on the trigger, but I want to see if the previous XAO low holds. If not, then potenatial to fall to the 3400 ish range and all other stocks will go with it.

So, I am on the sidelines till that event.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

my finger slipped, so i bought bhp....
i guess if it drops to 18, thats not tooo bad...
at least i got them close to the days lows.
im just hoping thie is the double dip some have been talking of.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I don't particularly go by the numbers or the charts, but the mentality behind it all.

What exactly made everybody in the last bear markets decide to start re-investing and create the new bull?

Obviously it wasn't 'bargains', or 'bailouts'. I wasn't around for any previous ones but I'm interested to see what the media/general public start saying once we reach the turn around point.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:
Yes, had my finger on the trigger, but I want to see if the previous XAO low holds. If not, then potenatial to fall to the 3400 ish range and all other stocks will go with it.

So, I am on the sidelines till that event.
Click to expand...

The trouble is even if you buy in at the low of the day you may be faced with a gap down the next day.....so where do you put your stops? Bit too risky for me and unneccessary risk to boot...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

cordelia said:
The trouble is even if you buy in at the low of the day you may be faced with a gap down the next day.....so where do you put your stops? Bit too risky for me and unneccessary risk to boot...
Click to expand...

Cordelia when most people buy on fundamentals they are buying for long term which usually means they dont have stops in place. Although they can have medium term put options to hedge themselves (also called a protective put strategy).
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Pretty disappointing morning but not all that unexpected with the shorts holding the upper hand this week. They have now pushed back below where we started the week.

Will be looking for the Friday afternoon unwind. In this case a rally into the close??
 
Re: XAO Analysis

A rally into the close would be very welcome TH.

ASX is pretty pi$$ weak as usual, mirroring the Dow on the falls but not on the rises.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

If there is going to be any support and short-covering into the close today...

4063 should hold, and normal short covering after 2:50pm, which could see the SPI back around 4172.

Below 4063 and I don't like the chances, as there is a maket path to continue towards the 5-day lows...

whether it gets down to the 5-day lows on Friday is another thing altogther.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

mother of all fades...

shocking day... perfect bull trap rally last night....

feels like there's no new buyers... the only traders are sellers and the only buyers are those shorters covering back.

only saving grace is for a small short covering into the close...

3800 clearly on the SPI's target
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Unless one is a super-short term trader, with the volatility so high and us trading in completely different time zone from the epicenter of the action (NYSE) why would one bother to buy something? Plus, commodities are getting slaughtered with the end nowhere to be seen.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

don't expect the big end to hold the market up - they are leading it down today -
XTL S&P/ASX 20 [XTL] 2,356.300 -33.900 (-1.4%)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

There will be no strong closing rally this afternoon, Whilst the dow had an upnight, it was only 60% or so of the previous days down side, so no strength as of dow close. It means there is more risk to the downside atthe moment and in the days of 5-10% falls who wants to risk their money.

The AUS gov't says apparenlty there is 2% growth next year, yet they have decided to substantailly prime the economy at substantial cost to the surplus. If we genuinely are to have 2% growth next year then there is no need to prime the spending like he has.

The gov't has clearly known/suspected for some time that the indications are that the whole world is going into recession, including us, but they keep talking it up. Can't blame them I suppose becasue whilst we would all like to know the real depth of their concern, it would devestate the markets with the psychological swings it causes on peoples minds.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

If the Aus economy does tank hard the electorate may quite wrongly blame 747 for its woes. He may be out on his **** at the end of the term, talking it up makes the most political sense in IMHO.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

testing the 3939 lows now and struggling but seems to be holding ...US tested lows last night and failed followed by good recovery. Should see positive results for monday good luck to those long
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Failed to break lows ...condolences to those short. Anyway.. shorties got enough cash now ....its time for longies to have some.
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

As far as analysis goes we have left the bell curve far behind.

We are in the realm of Nick Taleb's commentaries.

Chaotic theory is not that well advanced unfortunately to apply to the xao.

Fib has value.

gg
 
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