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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

There are 2 options with option (1) still in force.
(1) Next stop 3400 ish
(2) We see a slowing and rally back toward 5000 (havent done any analysis on where it could go.) as shown in the "wrong" chart on this thread.

Of course as I failed to point out in my previous analysis wait for confirmation.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Interesting how the 1 x 1 projection looks, is the 1 x 1.272 projection the next target, ie mid 3600 ?

Note that this is the XJO chart.

(click to expand)
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

The convergence occurs around 3250 at 1.618 on the XAO

(click to expand)
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

Kauri said:
have you got a chart of that trade mate... I've only got the 30min S+P... by that you must have given back all of the massive profits before catching the final hours rally to
Cheers
...........Kauri
Click to expand...

Sorry matey, all day in slumber.The chart is on the DOW thread.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Boggo said:
The convergence occurs around 3250 at 1.618 on the XAO
Click to expand...
Hi Boggo,

Good work
There is a cluster of 4 support levels around there too, so if/when we get down there then we could expect some great support and possibly a reversal.

Of course just above that level are the old highs of 3425/3444 made in February/March 2002. It will be these highs that everyone will be concentrating on.

Bankit
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

A few bottom callers out there at the moment, but maybe just another bump to dead bottom...

1119 [Dow Jones] Crescendo of forced selling in equities Friday, says Southern Cross Equities director Charlie Aitken. "My view is we have seen the vast bulk of forced selling and deleveraging in equities," says Aitken. Adds Friday's record NYSE volumes, record volatility, record readings of "fear" and record hedge fund and pension fund redemptions support "trading bottom" scenario. Says stock market rally may be triggered by forced sellers being exhausted. Recommends buying Australian banks. Index last up 5.7% at 4187.3. (DWR)
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Feb 2003 = 2800 ; Oct 2007 = 6750 ; Leg = 3950
Retracement by Fibonacci ratios 21 34 55 89 - classic, not the generally accepted trading Fibonacci ratios.

Retracement to: 6750 - (% of 3950)
21% = 5920
34% = 5407
55% = 4577
89% = 3234

So there is a convergence with the 1.618 retracement level of ~ 3200 in the chart posted by bankit above. But to get there it would first have to breach the 3400 - 3500 level - previous resistance, being (hoped for) new support.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Logique said:
Retracement to: 6750 - (% of 3950)
21% = 5920
34% = 5407
55% = 4577
89% = 3234
Click to expand...


Hi Logique,

You are quite correct in using the 89% figure as it (or more precisely 88.6%) does feature in major turning points in a number of Geometric Price patterns like the Bat, Crab, Butterfly and Gartley patterns.

However I have that 88.6% figure as being 3146 on the All Ords and not 3234. I get that figure from a low of 2666 and high of 6873....

Bankit
 
Re: XAO Analysis


It's a bottom, not the bottom.

Looks to be more than tradeable...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

OK nice one Bankit,

your figures are more precise than mine. Under more usual circumstances a fair degree of downtrend momentum exhaustion should accompany levels that low, if reached at all. We'll see soon enough.

I found some of the double digit % gains on the ASX today very encouraging.

Cheers,
Logique
 
Re: XAO Analysis

It's difficult for me to know where the markets heading from here. On one hand it's quite possible that XAO snakes it's way back up to 5000 over the coming months as a previous poster suggested or maybe it will sell off by the end of week. I've got no idea short term where this is heading.

One question I don't have an answer to as I haven't been following the market that long is has a bottom ever formed as result of government intervention in the past? How did bottoms form in 1933, 1987, S & L crisis, dot bomb etc?
 
Re: XAO Analysis


There are indeed more than one options as to how it turns out in the short term, but even if it makes it way back to 5000 before going down again, it would still be a lower high than the previous high in September, so I would imagine that we are still in a down trend even if it goes back to 5000.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

As others have mentioned before the excess money supply recently (governments pouring billions into the system) and along with other things will help the market bounce back. But once that dries up run for the hills
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Is it just me ... or is the rally not as strong as initially anticipated? Granted, 240 points is a pretty strong rally ... but considering the dow rose 11%? I'd have thought we'd see a whole lot more panic-buying (not wanting to miss the boat)

Perhaps she'll heavily run out of steam come the latter part of the day?

I don't think any news justifies the sort of gains we saw in the US overnight; global recession, anyone? :
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Nyden, I feel similarly. I've been waiting for the initial excitement to die off and as it does, the shares I'm looking at are falling off their early highs often to below their open prices. Test will be this arvo and close. But in my book this is the bear market version of a "correction" in a bull market. Nothing has really changed so far in the credit markets to my knowledge.
 
Re: XAO Analysis


Probably need to include yesterdays rally with todays.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

nomore4s said:
Probably need to include yesterdays rally with todays.
Click to expand...


Yes, but surely yesterdays rally didn't factor in an 11% gain? Where's the frenzy? Perhaps the fact that there is no frenzy is a good sign though
 
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