Jai, Why does just about every post of yours end in a question mark?
Why not add in your own thoughts?
Do you think a 1.5% drop on the DJI is a positive or negative lead?
Or do you think any other news announced since the close might turn it around?
Or, what`s you TA telling you?
kennas
:ald:
It ends in a question mark as it a question.... Just like the 5 QUESTIONS you just asked. Pretty straight foward really.
LOL, I think you're missing the point there a little.
I agree, a question does end in a question mark, and I too have failed to add any value to this thread recently.Actually I think he answered it perfectly and Id be suprised if Kennas doesnt agree!
I'm sure you see my point Struzball.
An XAO Fibonacci retracement hypothetical. Any mathematicians on board. I'm not a mathematician.
OK let's see. Feb 2003 = 2800 ; Oct 2007 = 6750 ; Leg = 3950
Retracement by Fibonacci ratios 21 34 55 89 144:
6750 - (% of 3950)
21% = 5920
34% = 5407
55% = 4577
89% = 3234
144% = 1062
Other ratios I have seen used
66% = 4143
78% = 3669
If only it was so simple. Many other macro economic are factors in operation. I had thought somewhere between 4000 to 4500 for the downleg, but perhaps need to start thinking about 3500 to 4000.
I had thought somewhere between 4000 to 4500 for the downleg, but perhaps need to start thinking about 3500 to 4000.
I thought I'd post some longer term outlook charts using Elliottwave on the XAO. If anyone else has a view, pls post if possible
Chart 1 shows the logic used in predicting the Medium term outlook, but using the bull leg from early 2003 to show wave relationships. Charts 2 and 3 assume that wave 3 is the extended wave (as it usually is).
Chart 2 shows the outlook based on the completed wave (ii)
Chart 3 further refines the outlook using completed wave ii of a lower degree
The yields should be good though, for whatever companies are left.Possibly finishing up at 1000? Gee and I thought I was bearish.
I agree. Any time is a good time to be chasing breasts.Makes me feel a little bullish. for opportunities of the bouncy type. :bounce:
It is much more likley that this movement down will be an ABC with one of the down legs subidviding into a 5 wave movement and the other leg alternating with a 3 leg movement. The problem with the above analysis is that ultimatley the 5 waves down would only be an a leg, so then we would have to have a b leg up and then some sort of c leg down again. This is extemely unlikely givent he size of the ranges involved
Generally speaking it is a requirement that after 5 waves down the abc retracement must exceed the wave 4 high to be a able to be classified as an ABC retracement. The high on 18 May exceeded the wave 4 high of the 5 waves down, therefor it is likely that 18 may 08 is the B wave high.
Anyway have a look at 4273 which is the 61.8 retrace of the bull run up, 4316 is the 1-1 ABC move down off the top, if we consider that the 18 May high is infact the B wave high. I expect that this area will pull the market up, at least for a while and then we will see how it goes.
The strange thing is that whatever count end up being right, if we trully do get down to the low 3000's then we are going to have a humungus recession in Australia. It would basically mean that as far as stocks are concerned everyone who lent on margin in the bull run up would have completely doen their capital. When we start thinking about that it means that there would also have to be a horendous housing market slump because so much money was borrowed by investers against their property equity and the share equity they had.
Personally I don't think it will happen but anything is possible.
FTSE down 5%, DAX same, CAC craking 6%. US futs down 2.5%.
Makes me feel a little bullish. for opportunities of the bouncy type. :bounce:
I agree. Any time is a good time to be chasing breasts.
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