XAO Technical Analysis

OzWaveGuy · 2 October 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
Not sure it's pointless tech/a, because surely while the lower degree waves are guided by the higher degree, they can forewarn (especially when corroberated by other analysis) of any deviation from the most likely path... but again I suppose it depends on the time frame one trades.

I monitor my stocks and indicies hourly as well for entry and exit points but don't normally count EW hourly... just as an example the hourly of the XAO looks likely to come back a bit more from here... supported by other indicators and charts not shown... pending later developments that may sway it.

PS: tech/a, I'm curious... I see you have a 3 in green box at top of chart. Did you start that five count from the Aug low and if so why?

Right, it all depends on time scales your interested in trading with. However, smaller degrees will help confirm the larger degrees you're interested in. Hourly charts give a wealth of info and most chart packages let you see a fair bit of data. Also, I find changing the view to a line v's bar chart can provide more clarity on the patterns forming.

deadset · 2 October 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

So what is going to happen tomorrow ? , this is the first time in a long time that I can say I honestly have no idea of what possible trends may be.

Anyone willing to say now what they think may happen ?

I can see things going either way, there's been a bit of a build up in anticipation already.

I've pretty much sold off lately. I'm more concerned about the compounding of any negative news right now.

I think I'll just put my news blinkers on and concentrate on the actual prices tomorrow.

Trembling Hand · 2 October 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Same old pattern.

Up in the morning then down in the arvo

OR

Down in the morning up in the arvo......

OzWaveGuy · 2 October 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
Hi OzWaveGuy

As mentioned earlier I'm relatively new to EW, but I've been studying it up mighty hard particularly the last couple of days because I just felt something wasn't right with the larger degree count I adopted from previous Ew'ers more experienced than me.

Since you are the most recent EW posting I'll relate my thoughts to your chart. I originally had my wave (i) or A where you have to make an ABC zig zag pattern (that most were talking about), but I have since changed my mind... partly because B retraces more than 50% of A which seems more like a Flat.

I thought your placement of wave i back in last Oct was not exactly in the right place, ie that it should have been a bit lower down... but then I realised you may be calling a little diag triangle followed by an expanded flat and calling wave v of (i) an impulse for the wave (i) to be an impulse. I'm inclined to see v as an abc, which would make it an (invalid) diag triangle because i and iv don't come within 10% of overlapping. I'm curious about your thoughts there.

I think I'm more comfortable with the following... an (a) (b) (c) expanded flat which looks like panning out for (c) up to make wave 2 or a (1) to (5) diag triangle to make a wave (5) around recent lows to make 1

PS: My charts were from yesterdays close.

Hi Whiskers,

The wave ii from Nov last year is most likely an expanded flat, not unusual for wave ii positions. As far as the rest of the analysis, it's very similar to tech/a's graph, although my analysis differs in that it shows we're into wave (iii) down already. Ideally i'd like to see 5 waves play up from here to confirm the expanded flat before heading back down as opposed to the c wave in the current count. Interestingly the Alt wave b has taken almost exactly the same time to develop as wave a has in the expanded flat scenario, so a good time relationship there - time will tell if the alt count plays out

It does look like the XAO is completing 5 waves up today with a correction to finish it off. However, i'd like to see 4923 breached to confirm it. cheers

Nyden · 2 October 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

I don't think we'll see a rally of any sort for the US in the coming days; just because I believe that the bailout is/was already priced in. It was already priced in when the DOW plummeted the other day; and that was why it plummeted ... because the expectation failed to eventuate.

The way I see it; DOW will either plummet, or stay flat (I'm leaning more towards heavy losses)
Heck, the US markets may still plummet even after bailout goes through; just because it might start to sink in just how serious this all is? Either that, or a lot of people are just waiting for the good news to sell into ... all being the clever bunnies they are

... should be explanatory where I believe the XAO to be headed then, since we pretty much follow the US markets lately.

OzWaveGuy · 2 October 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

deadset said:
So what is going to happen tomorrow ? , this is the first time in a long time that I can say I honestly have no idea of what possible trends may be.

Anyone willing to say now what they think may happen ?

I can see things going either way, there's been a bit of a build up in anticipation already.

I've pretty much sold off lately. I'm more concerned about the compounding of any negative news right now.

I think I'll just put my news blinkers on and concentrate on the actual prices tomorrow.

It's a tough call at the moment as there's not a confirmed short term trend on the XAO.

However, what I can say is that the S&P500 futures looks to be consolidating into a triangle pattern, which if breached to the upside could take the index to around 1200 or more. If the triangle pattern is confirmed, then there may be few days of upside momentum before resuming the downtrend (triangles appearing in corrective positions imply the main trend will resume shortly after being breached).

This would imply further upside activity in the short term on the XAO and fits with a possible small 5 wave pattern up today.

OzWaveGuy · 2 October 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

kotim said:
Whiskers, Make Elliot as plain as can be and if it does not set out like an easy Elliot then the chances are that you will be wrong.

The first wave down is a clear 5 wave structure, there is then an ABC structure up and now we are down. In Wave structure think alternation and as we can see the first wave down was 5 waves we can expect the C wave down to be a three wave structure. In other words if the A wave is 5 waves then we can expect the c wave to be 3 waves.

At least that is my belief, the only other problem with Elliot is trying to work out in what cycle your in.

Anyway good luck to everyone who trades

To help clarify, wave alternation is where waves will differ in type and usually time eg: if wave 2 is a zig-zag, then wave 4 could be a triangle or a flat and can also apply in corrections esp triangles, hence seeing these helps patterns confirm the count

In terms of a, b and c waves in corrections and their structure there are rules on how they are to treated eg: 5-3-5 (zig-zag), 3-3-5 (flat), 3-3-3-3-3 (triangle), so swapping a 5 with a 3 and vice-versa isn't a valid method. Corrections are the most difficult to predict and where most EW analysis fails is in their interpretation, esp when double and triple flats and zig-zags are forming. I think Glenn Neely does a smashing job at covering corrections and their formation

chops_a_must · 2 October 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Nyden said:
I don't think we'll see a rally of any sort for the US in the coming days; just because I believe that the bailout is/was already priced in. It was already priced in when the DOW plummeted the other day; and that was why it plummeted ... because the expectation failed to eventuate.

The way I see it; DOW will either plummet, or stay flat (I'm leaning more towards heavy losses)
Heck, the US markets may still plummet even after bailout goes through; just because it might start to sink in just how serious this all is? Either that, or a lot of people are just waiting for the good news to sell into ... all being the clever bunnies they are

... should be explanatory where I believe the XAO to be headed then, since we pretty much follow the US markets lately.

You have learnt a heap in 12 months Nyden.

Those expecting a rally would already be in, it's not exactly a hidden secret - so what happens when it passes and people use it to start selling into? However, the market does some crazy things.

I'm leaning towards the next tank being near option expiry. Just a guess really.

Porper · 2 October 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

OzWaveGuy said:
I think Glenn Neely does a smashing job at covering corrections and their formation

I think you are referring to "Mastering Elliot Wave" by Neely, errrrrrrrrrrr Ozwaveguy

If you came out of Cambridge or Oxford university then you may understand half of that book.Monowaves and polywaves, not for me.

There is some good stuff , but most of it you can get free at Elliot wave international i.m.o.

Anyway way off topic.

My count stays the same until wave 2 high is broken and it is proved incorrect.Even if it is, we should only get another test of the highs in the recent consolidation range, then impulse down again.

IFocus · 2 October 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Nyden said:
Sigh. Can we just have one bloody green day? The US has been having quite a few of them! Whole world was up, but the good ol' ASX has to buck the trend When did Australian investors become so nervous? What exactly is this based on?

The Australian economy is in fair shape, we have good fundamentals, we're not going into a recession, & as far as I can see - base metals aren't plummeting. There's no logic here!

We sell off on some fearful rumor, & decide not to buy back in when it doesn't pan out.

Our market needs to start focusing on our base metal stocks again, & ignore banks, & property

Chops I was thinking the same remember this Nyden.............how do you feel?

OzWaveGuy · 2 October 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Porper said:
I think you are referring to "Mastering Elliot Wave" by Neely, errrrrrrrrrrr Ozwaveguy

If you came out of Cambridge or Oxford university then you may understand half of that book.Monowaves and polywaves, not for me.

There is some good stuff , but most of it you can get free at Elliot wave international i.m.o.

Anyway way off topic.

My count stays the same until wave 2 high is broken and it is proved incorrect.Even if it is, we should only get another test of the highs in the recent consolidation range, then impulse down again.

Agreed. If someone can take it all and dump it into a charting package - would be very cool - it's a very heavy book . Having said that, there are several chapters on corrections that really help that EWI don't cover in any real depth.

Nyden · 2 October 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

IFocus said:
Chops I was thinking the same remember this Nyden.............how do you feel?

Ha, well isn't that just a blast from the not-so-distant past

Well right now I feel exhausted from a rather lengthy run! Healthy body, health mind - it's my latest resolution.

In all honesty though, I feel a little ... well I don't exactly have a word for it - strange, I guess; having people watch me grown and develop? : Quite pleased though at the fact that more seasoned inventors believe me to be coming along

dhukka · 2 October 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Found this long term chart of the VIX for those interested.

BentRod · 2 October 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Great Chart Duk.

jaithomson · 4 October 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

What s everyone leaning towards in for the ASx200 on Monday?

Would we see a decline or inscreast in price...>

tech/a · 4 October 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

I reckon it will be that bad they will take a holiday.

Porper · 4 October 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

jaithomson said:
What s everyone leaning towards in for the ASx200 on Monday?

Would we see a decline or inscreast in price...>

You would have to bet on weakness.

Looking at the chart you can only conclude that we are set for another strong down leg.

That is how I am set up anyway.Short, follow the trend.

Sean K · 5 October 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

jaithomson said:
What s everyone leaning towards in for the ASx200 on Monday?

Would we see a decline or inscreast in price...

Jai, Why does just about every post of yours end in a question mark?

Why not add in your own thoughts?

Do you think a 1.5% drop on the DJI is a positive or negative lead?

Or do you think any other news announced since the close might turn it around?

Or, what`s you TA telling you?

kennas

NZTurtle · 5 October 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Nyden said:
Quite pleased though at the fact that more seasoned inventors believe me to be coming along

I'm hoping thats a typo
I can't see any strength coming to the fore in the next couple of weeks. Trend is down, high uncertainty so there will be a continuation of downwards drift (and thats a positive perspective...) into a period of consolidation...
Sorry, I can't justify this heavily but it is just some thoughts from what I see and read.
Still be the odd star and value pick

Nyden · 5 October 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

NZTurtle said:
I'm hoping thats a typo
I can't see any strength coming to the fore in the next couple of weeks. Trend is down, high uncertainty so there will be a continuation of downwards drift (and thats a positive perspective...) into a period of consolidation...
Sorry, I can't justify this heavily but it is just some thoughts from what I see and read.
Still be the odd star and value pick

Think you misquoted me, I'm a complete bear at the moment. None of my posts for months have said anything about a market going up over anything above the short term :

Oh, I misinterpreted you! Yes, it was a typo - meant to be investors, of course I should hardly think we have many invetors around here :

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