Whiskers
It's a small world
- Joined
- 21 August 2007
- Posts
- 3,266
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- 1
Re: XAO Analysis
"Have a go"... that's the good old Aussie motto, eh.
Well from a FA perspective one has to find out what is actually moving the market at a given time. I believe that the oil price has overshadowed all the other subprime and credit crisis issues to the point of exassipating the dire outlook for the economy when the aforementioned issues were past their worst, at least in terms of the stock markets.
Then I have made some judgements about the flow-on effects such as a higher USD and better commodity prices in AUD as a consequence.. in essence better terms of trade because of the lower AUD.
Then I use TA to help determine the mini cycles of the ASD/AUD, price of Oil and gold (and commodities), the AXO and my trades.
For example I use a number of taylored and tested lagging indicators which I find helpful in determining the strength/fullness of a swing/cycle, some shown on chart... eg an easy one is the last candle near the bottom of the bollinger bands is an indication that the stock/index is getting close to finishing it's trend and may reverse. Also the trend is showing higher highs and higher lows. Another is the Elliot Wave wave count shown which is the source of my minimum target. Mind you I'm still serving my apprenticeship with EW, but I feel as though I've taken to it like a duck to water.
Of course it's not a simple as one or a collection of indicators. It ultimately boils down to the quality of ones research and methodology and the faith one accrues in it.
But having said all that, there's risk analysis... that other traders talk about often. For me I proof read/test as many of my analysis as I can... then look at the risk v reward of my trade/nvestment choices. I'm biased toward the resource sector, excluding oil atm and selected retail and financial's.
Hi white_goodman
I don't subscribe to that target. As I understand most people using that target base it on the length of wave C = wave A. But that is a subjective analysis with EW that people have to decide upon.
For me, wave C does not have to equal wave A, It can also be .618% of wave A which is where I place it modified slightly by other proportions in lower degree cycles.
Hi M34N
"Have a go"... that's the good old Aussie motto, eh.
Well from a FA perspective one has to find out what is actually moving the market at a given time. I believe that the oil price has overshadowed all the other subprime and credit crisis issues to the point of exassipating the dire outlook for the economy when the aforementioned issues were past their worst, at least in terms of the stock markets.
Then I have made some judgements about the flow-on effects such as a higher USD and better commodity prices in AUD as a consequence.. in essence better terms of trade because of the lower AUD.
Then I use TA to help determine the mini cycles of the ASD/AUD, price of Oil and gold (and commodities), the AXO and my trades.
For example I use a number of taylored and tested lagging indicators which I find helpful in determining the strength/fullness of a swing/cycle, some shown on chart... eg an easy one is the last candle near the bottom of the bollinger bands is an indication that the stock/index is getting close to finishing it's trend and may reverse. Also the trend is showing higher highs and higher lows. Another is the Elliot Wave wave count shown which is the source of my minimum target. Mind you I'm still serving my apprenticeship with EW, but I feel as though I've taken to it like a duck to water.
Of course it's not a simple as one or a collection of indicators. It ultimately boils down to the quality of ones research and methodology and the faith one accrues in it.
But having said all that, there's risk analysis... that other traders talk about often. For me I proof read/test as many of my analysis as I can... then look at the risk v reward of my trade/nvestment choices. I'm biased toward the resource sector, excluding oil atm and selected retail and financial's.
Hi white_goodman
I don't subscribe to that target. As I understand most people using that target base it on the length of wave C = wave A. But that is a subjective analysis with EW that people have to decide upon.
For me, wave C does not have to equal wave A, It can also be .618% of wave A which is where I place it modified slightly by other proportions in lower degree cycles.