XAO Technical Analysis

theasxgorilla · 3 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

motorway said:
You can see a trap move from the bottom of this congestion

Sounds ominous...what is a trap move exactly?

CanOz · 3 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

After that reversal last night in the US / commodity sell off, i'll be stuffed if the XAO and XJO don't get taken for 2% today!

Cheers,

CanOz

tech/a · 3 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

theasxgorilla said:
Sounds ominous...what is a trap move exactly?

Trap move was for shorts.

brty · 3 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

what is a trap move exactly?

Head fake, running the stops, bear trap/bull trap. Basically moving the market in the opposite direction of the big upcoming move.

It is what catches the amateur traders thinking it is another breakout in the current direction.

If you are a large trader, think hedge fund here, then in order to get the volume you need, you need to push the market to where you can get that volume.

brty

Whiskers · 5 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Since the Aus economy is pretty much driven by our agricultural and mineral resources this comparison chart over the last year gives a pretty good visual picture of why the outlook is looking better all the time for the Aus economy.

Oil (in $US) is falling quite rapidly as the USD rises, but gold and commodities are pretty much retaining a steady helm in AUD which all equates to much better terms of trade for the Aus agricultural and mining sectors.

My guess is that it will take at least another three or four months for oil to bottom out probably sub $80, some are suggesting $60.

Given that the cost of oil has been the most significant driver of production costs and inflation recently, it's only a matter of time until lower oil reflects into a much better local and international busines enviornment.

wayneL · 5 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
Since the Aus economy is pretty much driven by our agricultural and mineral resources this comparison chart over the last year gives a pretty good visual picture of why the outlook is looking better all the time for the Aus economy.

Oil (in $US) is falling quite rapidly as the USD rises, but gold and commodities are pretty much retaining a steady helm in AUD which all equates to much better terms of trade for the Aus agricultural and mining sectors.

My guess is that it will take at least another three or four months for oil to bottom out probably sub $80, some are suggesting $60.

Given that the cost of oil has been the most significant driver of production costs and inflation recently, it's only a matter of time until lower oil reflects into a much better local and international busines enviornment.

Other folks are a bit more concerned it seems.

SYCOM:

dhukka · 5 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
Anyway, it looks like tomorrow should be down a bit more, but 5300+ looks a real possibility late in the week or next.

hmmm......... maybe next week eh Whiskers?

Whiskers · 5 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

wayneL said:
Other folks are a bit more concerned it seems.

SYCOM:

Yes indeed wayneL. But that's the fragility of human nature.

At the risk of (as porper warns) an inflated ego being prequel to disaster... I have checked my facts, statisticts and methodology and am not so quietly confident.

The main issue at the moment is oil. It needs to edge a bit lower to finish the leg A close to $100. The USD index (and stock markets) are chanting at the bit to kick higher, but it needs oil to move a bit more first.

Sorta like a bit of constipation atm.

I'll post a chart later when I have a bit more time with more analysis to soothe the nerves of all ye bear-dazzled folks.

dhukka said:
hmmm......... maybe next week eh Whiskers?

Why not, dhukka, after all that was and still is, my forecast!

Trembling Hand · 5 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
The main issue at the moment is oil.

Really?? I'm pretty sure our biggest market cap sector started breaking down with oil. And I'm also pretty sure that the XAO made new lows not seen for two years when oil topped out.

So the problem is high oil?? Nothing like a market cliche to gloss over the facts hey?

Porper · 5 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
Really?? I'm pretty sure our biggest market cap sector started breaking down with oil. And I'm also pretty sure that the XAO made new lows not seen for two years when oil topped out.

So the problem is high oil?? Nothing like a market cliche to gloss over the facts hey?

Quite interesting that a few weeks ago when oil was flying it was bad for the markets.

Quite interesting that now oil is going down.....................it is bad for the markets

Whiskers · 5 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
Really?? I'm pretty sure our biggest market cap sector started breaking down with oil. And I'm also pretty sure that the XAO made new lows not seen for two years when oil topped out.

So the problem is high oil?? Nothing like a market cliche to gloss over the facts hey?

Well, that's sorta fair enough lagging TA.

But, it's a bit of a complex FA thing that is driving the markets.

You need to grasp the 'chicken and egg' issues to know how it will unfold.

Trembling Hand · 5 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Whisker the complexity I struggle with is the rubbish you sprout which is not backed by the facts.

You know....... lagging "expert" excuses.

dhukka · 5 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
Really?? I'm pretty sure our biggest market cap sector started breaking down with oil. And I'm also pretty sure that the XAO made new lows not seen for two years when oil topped out.

So the problem is high oil?? Nothing like a market cliche to gloss over the facts hey?

Well put TH. The high oil nonsense was obvious for anyone who bothered to look at the facts.

July 15th - Oil tops out at USD$147 and change, the XAO closes at 4910.

August 5th - Oil drops a sharp -20% to about USD$117. How does the stockmarket react? Makes a new low at 4882.

September 5th Oil now at USD$107.50, a full -27% lower from the peak and where is the stockmarket? Less than 1.0% higher than where it was when oil peaked.

Yeah it's obviously all about oil.

dhukka · 5 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
Why not, dhukka, after all that was and still is, my forecast!

Ahh well lets see. The XAO closed at 4949.5 today. That means it needs to rise 70 points every day for 5 consecutive days to meet your target. Hell maybe you won't need 5 days, maybe it shoots up 120 points on each of Mon, Tues and Wed. Maybe Hitler will retroactively be awared the Noble peace prize.

Anyway since I'm a sport and since your a man of your word and willing to put your money where your mouth is, how about we put another carton a beer on the line?

Whiskers · 5 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:
Whisker the complexity I struggle with is the rubbish you sprout which is not backed by the facts.

You know....... lagging "expert" excuses.

You know what mate, one really needs to be at peace with oneself... a prerequesate, before you are able to connect to the ' ? ' and just 'know', before one is able to provide metaphysical proof to the satisfaction of the sceptic or uninitiated.

Gotta dash... but hang in there now and I'll talk to ya more later.

Whiskers · 7 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Well, here's my weekend musings. I've consulted the '?' and have got the latest word.

Earlier, I forecast that the XAO will head toward 5300 next stop.

I hold my hand on my heart and solemnly swear to tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, that the XAO will make at least 5278 for the next high, maybe this week... otherwise next week will do.

Oil may have bottomed for the moment, but it could nudge a little bit closer to 100, before consolidating sideways say 100 to 120 range before going south again.

The AUD has fallen to just above .80, but will go lower on strength of the USD. This has reflected in an effective modest AUD price rise for gold and commodities generally. Better terms of trade for Aus businesses generally I think.

Nyden · 7 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
Well, here's my weekend musings. I've consulted the '?' and have got the latest word.

Earlier, I forecast that the XAO will head toward 5300 next stop.

I hold my hand on my heart and solemnly swear to tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, that the XAO will make at least 5278 for the next high, maybe this week... otherwise next week will do.

Oil may have bottomed for the moment, but it could nudge a little bit closer to 100, before consolidating sideways say 100 to 120 range before going south again.

The AUD has fallen to just above .80, but will go lower on strength of the USD. This has reflected in an effective modest AUD price rise for gold and commodities generally. Better terms of trade for Aus businesses generally I think.

Whiskers mate, you're one of those posters that really tick me off :

Why do you insist on using words like will, and phrases like "before going"? You are entitled to your forecasts, and I appreciate any and all member contributions - but that's what they are, forecasts! Heck, weathermen don't even communicate their forecasts with such "confidence"; as they have the humility to understand that the forecast may be wrong.

The AUD might not go lower, the situation in the US may deteriorate more so, and the AUD might still make a climb back to parity. I don't know if this will happen, and neither do you.

I can see from this, as well as other threads - that a few people share my annoyance here. All I'm asking at least, is that you reduce the cocky-tone, and quit portraying yourself as such a permabull! Accept that there are problems and potentially huge risks in this current market; and we're not going to suddenly climb back to the glory days overnight.

Edit:
Oh, and it's probably rather disrespectful as well. Many people are losing a lot of hard earned money lately (myself not included with this awful market, and I'm sure it isn't exactly heart-warming to them to listen to you spouting off on how fantastic things are to be.

Whiskers · 7 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Nyden, don't get ticked off (with me or the market) mate... get even.

Find out why you are not having any 'luck' picking the market. Just as an aside, there is no such thing as luck. We all make our own destiny.

Some have also been 'ticked' off with all the doom and gloom sayers... some of them just armchair critics.

But me, I put my money where my mouth is and I'm here to show anyone that is prepared to listen and do the hard work for their own particular circimstances that there are good profit making opportunities out there.

Again Nyden, what's the point of getting ticked off. That's just emotional frustration coming out! Remember investing and trading decisions should not be made on an emotional basis.

Edit:
Oh, and it's probably rather disrespectful as well. Many people are losing a lot of hard earned money lately (myself not included ) with this awful market, and I'm sure it isn't exactly heart-warming to them to listen to you spouting off on how fantastic things are to be.

Well, would you prefer I drown them in self pity and endorse the doomsdayers... and just curl up under a rock somewhere waiting for... err becoming a self-fulling profecy.

M34N · 7 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:
Well, here's my weekend musings. I've consulted the '?' and have got the latest word.

Earlier, I forecast that the XAO will head toward 5300 next stop.

I hold my hand on my heart and solemnly swear to tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, that the XAO will make at least 5278 for the next high, maybe this week... otherwise next week will do.

Oil may have bottomed for the moment, but it could nudge a little bit closer to 100, before consolidating sideways say 100 to 120 range before going south again.

The AUD has fallen to just above .80, but will go lower on strength of the USD. This has reflected in an effective modest AUD price rise for gold and commodities generally. Better terms of trade for Aus businesses generally I think.

Whiskers, a couple points/questions.

Firstly, thanks for at least having a go and telling us what you think may happen instead of just going over what has already happened - I, for one, appreciate it and enjoy reading your posts/analysis.

Now, I'm interested in what makes you think the market will move this way? And more importantly, which sectors do you expect to perform the best/worst?

Cheers mate.

white_goodman · 7 September 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

hmmm i have a different view to whiskers atm... i believe where in a sideways trading range and after the last days strong move down i think it will retest jsut above in between the blue lines and if theres a lack of effort itll move down through the blue trading lines and then through the black ones...

and by a few peoples reckoning finishing off wave C to 4200ish...

take this all with a grain of salt... sea salt its better for cell volumisation...

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