Hi,
Dhukka,
What is random???
How can it be that yesterdays market action that affects the actions of many market participants today, be regarded as 'random' in any shape or form??
The factors that affect stock movements are many and varied, but thinking it is random is a mistake.
A coin toss is a separate event from the last toss, the coin does not have a memory, that is random.
The market behaves in ways that can by measured by probabilities according to past events. On any occasion the bet can be wrong. A 50/50 system can be a huge winner if you are prepared to cut the losses immediately while aiming for much larger winners. Failure to understand that, and just pick on the bad calls, means a lack of understanding of the game.
We all make many predictions/bets everyday, with high probabilities on our side. For instance, whenever you drive your car, you are betting that the guy in the car coming the other way, will stay on his side of the road. Most of the time that prediction/bet is successful, but for some it is the wrong bet, that has happened to me.
Your theory of having a coin toss vs market picking direction for the following week is a silly idea, because my choice is up every week. Past history will show you that the indexes have a positive bias over the long term. Your random coin toss will lose.
brty
Again, what do you consider to be medium term? And if you don't mind, could you answer the question that I asked twice before but you refused to answer regarding your claim that:
Quote:
Originally Posted by brty View Post
Let's see if there is any argument with the following examples.
Will ANZ bank will make $1.6B less this year than last year?
Likewise for each of the other banks.
That is what the market is currently pricing in.
my question was:
Quote:
Originally Posted by dhukka View Post
I would be interested to see how you arrive at that calculation
If you have better data going back to 1900, then plenty of people as well as I would love to see it.
Going back to 1980 is a cinch for absolute highs and lows, but that is not the longer term. We can only compare like with like.
In your opinion is not making any type of comparison at all with history a better alternative??
What data IS more useful going back to 1900 for the Australian market???
Hi
The ANZ bank one was simple, the SP had fallen ~40% The $1.6b was ~40% less profit. That was clearly obvious to anyone who knew anything about bank shares.
Also any losses early on, that are unexpected, are just about always much less than the final picture, hence the market gets conditioned to feel better about the events.
I would be expecting a pullback over the next month or so as many good stocks are looking a little overbought after there 20-30% rises in the last 2 months.
Yes, appologies dhukka. I'm out of line. No one actually needs to be trading to have an opinion of where the XAO is going.I think you're a little slow kennas since I've told you before, I don't trade, so why would I post up a trade?
Possible 3400 bottom on 5. Crikey! Is that system generated Tech?Good morning girls!
XAO still conforming to current analysis.
Here is a weekly chart showing the current wave 4 retracement.
All analysis remains the same for me relative to previous posts.
Possible 3400 bottom on 5. Crikey! Is that system generated Tech?
Motorway, I'm working on my P&F, I really am, but they just ain't working for me yet.
A person watching the tide coming in and who wishes to know the exact spot which marks the high tide, sets a stick in the sand at the points reached by the incoming waves until the stick reaches a position where the waves do not come up to it, and finally recede enough to show that the tide has turned.
Charles Dow
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