XAO Technical Analysis

Re: XAO Analysis

Well oil nudged up a little taking gold with it to within a smidgen on my target, now they are both on the way down in line with forecasts.

The permabears and doomsdayers will probably get a bit perked up again with that, : but I've got orders waiting to get filled in the temporary malay.

So, it's off to bed for a good night sleep now and see what booty I can reap tomorrow.

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:

Well oil nudged up a little taking gold with it to within a smidgen on my target, now they are both on the way down in line with forecasts.

The permabears and doomsdayers will probably get a bit perked up again with that, : but I've got orders waiting to get filled in the temporary malay.

So, it's off to bed for a good night sleep now and see what booty I can reap tomorrow.

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Whiskers, the market has a tendency to give us a good kicking when we think we are invincible.

We all have times when we call it right, this can last for what seems to be ages.

This is when we are at our most vulnerable.You obviously think you have got it sussed.I suggest you are approaching this point.

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:

Well oil nudged up a little taking gold with it to within a smidgen on my target, now they are both on the way down in line with forecasts.

The permabears and doomsdayers will probably get a bit perked up again with that, : but I've got orders waiting to get filled in the temporary malay.

So, it's off to bed for a good night sleep now and see what booty I can reap tomorrow.

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Temporary Malay? I always thought once a Malay, always a Malay.

I'm actually wondering which forecasts gold and oil are in line with, 'cause they don't line up to any I've seen.

Re: XAO Analysis

Porper said:

Whiskers, the market has a tendency to give us a good kicking when we think we are invincible.

We all have times when we call it right, this can last for what seems to be ages.

This is when we are at our most vulnerable.You obviously think you have got it sussed.I suggest you are approaching this point.

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Hi, porper... yeah I know that all too well. But my main aim is to provoke more discussion re positive events and investment opportunities for the average investor, cos I was starting to get a bit depressed by what I believe is an illogical and unjustified imbalance and over preponderance of bad news and negativity towards the Aus economy and investment oppertunities for the average person.

Also as I have said often, I'm relatively new to EW although I'm very familiar with a few other types of cycle analysis and I am trying to encourage intellectual dialogue or even healthy debate on, to what extent the market is predictable. Too that extent I'm hoping for some critique particularly from other EW'ers re their interpretation of the signs.

For me my other cycles analysis has proven to be very helpful for me in other aspects of my life and I'm beginning to think maybe EW is the missing link for me to much better quantify and time the market moves re entry and exit points.

At the end of the day, these types of forums are often over-run with rampers and ego hounds. This forum does a good job of maintaining some integrity of it's posts. While I'm having a bit of fun atm rebuffing some of the negativity, I can assure you I have been putting in some pretty long hours of research so that I'm happy to put my money where my mouth is, as opposed to just being an armchair critic... so that my posts and other that post opportunities in these markets are seen as more for their educational value than interpreted as just an ego trip. So I will be having a bit of a break to recharge my batteries before too long.

wayneL said:

Temporary Malay? I always thought once a Malay, always a Malay.

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WayneL... you damn pedant, you...

Ok you got me... I'll blame the late night... it should be malaise!

mal·aise (m-lz, -lz) n.
1. A vague feeling of bodily discomfort, as at the beginning of an illness.
2. A general sense of depression or unease

I'm actually wondering which forecasts gold and oil are in line with, 'cause they don't line up to any I've seen.

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Why, mine of course! :

But surely, I'm not the only one who sees oil and gold going in opposite directions and consolidating for awhile.

But, just out of interest, what do the forecasts you see for oil and gold say?

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:

WayneL... you damn pedant, you...

Ok you got me... I'll blame the late night... it should be malaise!

mal·aise (m-lz, -lz) n.
1. A vague feeling of bodily discomfort, as at the beginning of an illness.
2. A general sense of depression or unease

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You sure you don't mean:

Melee

me·lee Audio Help /ˈmeɪleɪ, meɪˈleɪ, ˈmɛleɪ/ Pronunciation Key - Show Spelled Pronunciation[mey-ley, mey-ley, mel-ey] Pronunciation Key - Show IPA Pronunciation
–noun
1. a confused hand-to-hand fight or struggle among several people.
2. confusion; turmoil; jumble: the melee of Christmas shopping.
Also, mêlée.

Or perhaps Mielé?

Then you could see what comes out in the wash.

Boom Boom

Re: XAO Analysis

What about malleable,

mal·le·a·ble (m l - -b l)
adj. 1. Capable of being shaped or formed, as by hammering or pressure: a malleable metal.
2. Easily controlled or influenced; tractable.
3. Able to adjust to changing circumstances; adaptable:
4. Able to adjust to past circumstances to suit: Whiskers mind is malleable because he only remembers the time he is right.

Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:

What about malleable,

4. Able to adjust to past circumstances to suit: Whiskers mind is malleable because he only remembers the time he is right.

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Augh c'mon TH, that's as off the mark as some of the negativity and bruised egos around the place.

Just as a point of interest, I didn't start this point scoring, right, wrong, play the man instead of the ball sideshow. I've never professed to be perfect only to offer some counter thoughts and possibilities.

It's only more recently that I have made a couple of hard and fast predictions.

Unfortunately, it's the bad sports and sore loosers that play the man instead of the ball and then try to verball the umpire and the crowd that the opposition was 'bad'.

Good sports just get on with the game and focus on where to score the next goal. :

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers i was never that good at ball sports.

But I do love a bit of sport......

sport
Noun
1. an activity for exercise, pleasure, or competition: your favourite sport
2. such activities collectively: the minister for sport
3. the enjoyment gained from a pastime: just for the sport of it
4. playful or good-humoured joking: I only did it in sport
5. Informal a person who accepts defeat or teasing cheerfully
6. make sport of someone to make fun of someone
7. an animal or plant that is very different from others of the same species, usually because of a mutation
8. Austral & NZ informal a term of address between males
Verb

Re: XAO Analysis

Trembling Hand said:

Whiskers i was never that good at ball sports.

But I do love a bit of sport......

sport
Noun
1. an activity for exercise, pleasure, or competition: your favourite sport
2. such activities collectively: the minister for sport
3. the enjoyment gained from a pastime: just for the sport of it
4. playful or good-humoured joking: I only did it in sport
5. Informal a person who accepts defeat or teasing cheerfully
6. make sport of someone to make fun of someone
7. an animal or plant that is very different from others of the same species, usually because of a mutation
8. Austral & NZ informal a term of address between males
Verb

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Ok... but in cricket venacular, I still call it a 'wide' ball... which you can't dismiss a batsman from even if he has a wild swing at it, unless he tries to go for a run, in which case you would have to considerably improve your aim to hit the stumps to get him out.




Perhaps it should be... mêlée.

Mielé?... ah well, since the market is being a bit resiliant to easing back so far, I'll go and do my washing in my el-cheapo 'Samsung'.

Re: XAO Analysis

Ok, so it appears that nobody here knows their sport rules 100%... Anyway sport details aside, the XAO is knocking at the 5200 level today. Shouldn't we be all watching that?

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:

Augh c'mon TH, that's as off the mark as some of the negativity and bruised egos around the place.

Just as a point of interest, I didn't start this point scoring, right, wrong, play the man instead of the ball sideshow. I've never professed to be perfect only to offer some counter thoughts and possibilities.

It's only more recently that I have made a couple of hard and fast predictions.

Unfortunately, it's the bad sports and sore loosers that play the man instead of the ball and then try to verball the umpire and the crowd that the opposition was 'bad'.

Good sports just get on with the game and focus on where to score the next goal. :

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We all live our own realities and yours is defintiely unique. No you've never claimed to be perfect, but nor have you ever admitted to being wrong. I think that is what most people object to. When it comes to your past predictions, you see what you want to see, and that's fine but you should not whinge about being called on it. You also assume for some reason, that because you make predictions that you should be immune from criticism from those who don't make predictions. You do not inhabit the moral highground because you decide to make predictions.

I can't speak for others, but the main reason I don't make predicitons, particularly over the short term, is that for the vast majority of the time, I don't have a clue. Not because I lack some technical skills or understanding but because I realise that humans are notoriously bad at predicting. In short prediction is a mugs game and there is plethora of evidence that show that to be the case. That's not to say people shouldn't try, if you want to make predictions knock yourself out, a lot can be learned along the way, but just don't be surprised if poeple have a good old chuckle at your attempts.

Even poeple like wavepicker, who seems to have garnered a following, have a success rate no better than a coin toss. The problem is people have a natural tendency to remember the right calls and forget about the wrong ones. Probably for the same reason you can go to the bookshop and find many books on how to make a million dollars but you won't find many on how to lose the same amount. This tendency can falsely lead to the belief that your methods are working or that you have some special predictve powers rather than just blind luck.

My call of 3400 - 3800 on the XAO is not based on any techincal analysis, at best it is an educated guess based on economic fundamentals, but since I know that forecasting is a mugs game, I don't have any solid convictions that my targets will be realised. If they are, I will have to ackowledge that it had more to do with luck than good analysis.

Also the claim that you are simply positing your predictions for educational value are disingenuous at best. The fact that you feel it is your duty to take on the cause of the 'average investor' by providing them with 'opportunities' speaks volumes to the size of your ego.

btw - didn't you predict the market would be down today?

Whiskers said:

From my technical indicators, I'm thinking the XAO will probably come back a tad tomorrow again and maybe monday before completing minor wave 1 up.

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Re: XAO Analysis

Awesomandy said:

Ok, so it appears that nobody here knows their sport rules 100%... Anyway sport details aside, the XAO is knocking at the 5200 level today. Shouldn't we be all watching that?

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Naah, the Whiskers - dhukka duel is far more entertaining. :

Re: XAO Analysis

rub92me said:

Naah, the Whiskers - dhukka duel is far more entertaining. :

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Now, now mate... you keep your eye on the job now.

I'm just having a bit of sideshow fun with some armchair critics splitting hairs.

Awesomandy said:

Ok, so it appears that nobody here knows their sport rules 100%... Anyway sport details aside, the XAO is knocking at the 5200 level today. Shouldn't we be all watching that?

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Exactly, Awesomandy.

I'm proud to be half a split hair right ... afterall my initial forecast after the previous couple of flat days was to head for 5200.

But damit, I must have been getting effected by the permabears when I erred on the side of caution looking for the minuette wave iii to end a bit sooner. But it will come nonetheless, now probably monday as was one of the window days I mentioned.

But hey, I'm thrilled the market kicked on a bit harder this minuette leg iii. It pushed right through the upper projections like a fresh randy young bull. If ya want me to post another chart with the minuette details just say so.

So, predicting the market is pot luck heh. Well I guess coming from an armchair critic that doesn't trade... I mean where the hell do ya begin to explain... except to say by definition if one is to trade the market one has to make an educated guess at the short term movements. I hope there ain't many of you just taking pot luck, like 'flipping coins' into a poker machine.

But to be fair to my old mate dhukka, he's a brilliant librarian of all manner of statistics and economic ideologies, but the only problem is the market often doesn't give two hoots about economic ideology and past statistics.

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:

Now, now mate... you keep your eye on the job now.

......

But to be fair to my old mate dhukka, he's a brilliant librarian of all manner of statistics and economic ideologies, but the only problem is the market often doesn't give two hoots about economic ideology and past statistics.

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Ha ha!

Never seen a real trade from either of you actually....

LOL

It's all just words from this side of the fence.......

Post a real trade up for us, just once...

Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:

Ha ha!

Never seen a real trade from either of you actually....

LOL

It's all just words from this side of the fence.......

Post a real trade up for us, just once...

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Hows this mate.

The details and charts are posted on the MDX thread.

I didn't get any orders filled today, due to the lovely bullishment/Bullishness (oh what the hell, some pedant will sort that out) of the market... and I aint gonna spit them out till I get my slice of the cheap pie... then I'll crow.

PS: Just to clear the hot air that I only admit to wins, you will find a recent acknowledgement on the GCR thread that I have cut losses as well as taken profits... you know in the name of pragmatism. Another that I acknowledged somewhere early after joining the forum was NIA now POS.

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:

Hows this mate.

The details and charts are posted on the MDX thread.

I didn't get any orders filled today, due to the lovely bullishment/Bullishness (oh what the hell, some pedant will sort that out) of the market... and I aint gonna spit them out till I get my slice of the cheap pie... then I'll crow.

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You made money but why did you bail? you cut your winner short.

Re: XAO Analysis

lusk said:

You made money but why did you bail? you cut your winner short.

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Well that's where I'm applying my newfound interest in EW thanks to the other EW contributers on the forum, I figured it had a too strong minor wave i... it gapped up a fair bit. I reckoned it will come back sooner rather than later to fill the gap for minor wave ii. So I took the oportunity to trade a swing elsewhere in the meantime.

But, I'll be in again when my target is reached... hoping I can spread my cash around enough to cover all my selections.

Re: XAO Analysis

Whiskers said:

So, predicting the market is pot luck heh. Well I guess coming from an armchair critic that doesn't trade... I mean where the hell do ya begin to explain... except to say by definition if one is to trade the market one has to make an educated guess at the short term movements. I hope there ain't many of you just taking pot luck, like 'flipping coins' into a poker machine.

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I didn't say it was completely pot luck, what I am saying is don't underestimate the role of luck or randomness when you make a correct call. As said before, we all suffer from the bias of wanting to believe that because we got it right, it must be because our method is right. E.g. I went to the pub on Friday night wearing a bright red shirt and got laid, ergo I'll wear the same shirt to the pub next Friday and get laid again.

All the studies I have seen done on the ability of so called experts to predict future events show that they have no better predictive powers than the average punter, (and are sometimes worse) be it in economics, politics or the stockmarket. As you know (or you should know) a profitable trader does not necessarily need to get his calls right. Here's a quote from Nick Radge:

If you are like most people and believe that most important aspect of successful trading is being correct, unfortunately, it's your own ego you're caressing. You can be be a highly profitable trader and lose more often than not - indeed, some of the world's top traders lose more often than not.

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Some may argue that because they have years of experience and have studied various forms of technical analysis that they have an advantage in predicting market movements. That may be so, but I'm willing to bet someone flipping a coin could probably do as well 99% of the experts. Go back a year or more on this thread and show me all the experts that predicted where the the XAO would be.

We could easily test my theory. Open a new thread and post every Friday by 5:00 p.m, what direction you think the market will move the following week. I'll flip a coin, heads = up, tails = down and I'll post that. Of course it would have to be run over a considerable length of time to get a decent sample size but no reason it couldn't be done.

Re: XAO Analysis

kennas said:

Ha ha!

Never seen a real trade from either of you actually....

LOL

It's all just words from this side of the fence.......

Post a real trade up for us, just once...

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I think you're a little slow kennas since I've told you before, I don't trade, so why would I post up a trade?

Re: XAO Analysis

Hi,

Dhukka,

what I am saying is don't underestimate the role of luck or randomness

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a success rate no better than a coin toss

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What is random???

How can it be that yesterdays market action that affects the actions of many market participants today, be regarded as 'random' in any shape or form??

The factors that affect stock movements are many and varied, but thinking it is random is a mistake.

A coin toss is a separate event from the last toss, the coin does not have a memory, that is random.

The market behaves in ways that can by measured by probabilities according to past events. On any occasion the bet can be wrong. A 50/50 system can be a huge winner if you are prepared to cut the losses immediately while aiming for much larger winners. Failure to understand that, and just pick on the bad calls, means a lack of understanding of the game.

We all make many predictions/bets everyday, with high probabilities on our side. For instance, whenever you drive your car, you are betting that the guy in the car coming the other way, will stay on his side of the road. Most of the time that prediction/bet is successful, but for some it is the wrong bet, that has happened to me.

Your theory of having a coin toss vs market picking direction for the following week is a silly idea, because my choice is up every week. Past history will show you that the indexes have a positive bias over the long term. Your random coin toss will lose.

brty