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XAO Technical Analysis

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Re: XAO Analysis

Like any "guru" who is in to prediction; you shout the one call you got right in 1968 from the mountaintops and let 150,000 bad calls since, disappear into the mists of time.

It was like a couple EWers that used to post here (now banned) called gold and oil doomage. They were crowing about how right they called it... but forgot about the intervening up wave and crook timing that made them look like Wallies.

I called a bear market and economic doomage... I'm a guru... oops I called it a couple of years too soon...let's just ignore that shall we.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Hi,

Dhukka,

Don't know what I have done to upset you so much, but don't really care either.

On a monthly closing basis, the fall from '02-'03 was 17.39%.
The highest monthly close was 3363 in march with the lowest monthly close in '03 being 2778 in feb. No it's not the absolute highs and lows, but neither are any of the other corrections.

There were other corrections of similar magnitude on a monthly closing basis. None of those were included either.

I have included corrections of 25%+ as the large ones, would you prefer 22%?? or 20% or maybe 15.67845623%, you have to draw the line somewhere.

If you have better data going back to 1900, then plenty of people as well as I would love to see it.
Going back to 1980 is a cinch for absolute highs and lows, but that is not the longer term. We can only compare like with like.

In your opinion is not making any type of comparison at all with history a better alternative??

What data IS more useful going back to 1900 for the Australian market??? I have not seen any but would love to.

brty
 
Re: XAO Analysis

brty said:
What data IS more useful going back to 1900 for the Australian market??? I have not seen any but would love to.

brty
Click to expand...

Data before 1980 is NOT 'data', as the ASX was not around
 
Re: XAO Analysis

tcoates said:
The most recent Smart Investor has David Hunt (President of ATAA) has targets of 4164 and "ultimate target" of 3440 (sometime next year). Ming you, he is referring to the XJO. But there is not much diff between the XJO and XAO chart wise.
Click to expand...

If he's going to get page space in Smart Investor he might as well say something memorable. I find both of these targets very hard to fathom, but the latter especially so.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Hi Gav,

Have you got something that is better to show the performance of the Australian market prior to 1980??

I'd love to see it.

brty
 
Re: XAO Analysis


A big Gotcha wayneL,

Just on Oil and Gold, doesn't look like anyone who was bearish was too far wrong now, especially looking at the carnage of the last month. Wouln't you agree?
Especially if your horizon is longer term..... :
 
Re: XAO Analysis

gav said:
Data before 1980 is NOT 'data', as the ASX was not around
Click to expand...
According to Premium Data

"The official ASX historical record only commences in 1992. Other vendors may offer data that goes back further than 1992, but this data in unlikely to contain adjustments for splits, consolidations, capital returns etc. In other words, it is likely to be inconsistent with subsequent data. "
 
Re: XAO Analysis


My comments have nothing to do with being upset, I just like to set the historical record straight. If you want to use your month end data go ahead, but it distorts the true depth of historical bear markets and excludes some altogether like the one in 2002-3. You said yourself you can't even be sure of the data pre 1980 so you don't even know if you're comparing like with like.

Again, what do you consider to be medium term? And if you don't mind, could you answer the question that I asked twice before but you refused to answer regarding your claim that:

brty said:
Let's see if there is any argument with the following examples.

Will ANZ bank will make $1.6B less this year than last year?

Likewise for each of the other banks.

That is what the market is currently pricing in.
Click to expand...

my question was:

dhukka said:
I would be interested to see how you arrive at that calculation
Click to expand...
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Hi,

A link on the ASX website takes you to the S&P website. I found the following.....

1979 The All Ordinaries index was created, with a base date of December 31st 1979, replacing the regional indices, which were independantly run out of the Sydney and Melbourne exchanges.
Click to expand...

Ok I was a day out, it started at the end of '79.

Also interesting from the same document.....

1992 The Sydney Futures Exchange (SFE) issues the first equity futures contract in Australia.

That is patently wrong. I was trading equity futures in the '80s, the SPI was trading from the early '80's. The size of the contract was divided by 4 around that time.

brty

brty
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Looks like a triple bottom did form on the ES. One more dip which finds strong volume, and we may have a bottom that could last a week!

I find these short-term bottoms can really sneak up on me. And they always seem to be around the times of the worst banking rumours. Coincidence?
 

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Re: XAO Analysis

skyhawk said:
Just on Oil and Gold, doesn't look like anyone who was bearish was too far wrong now, especially looking at the carnage of the last month. Wouln't you agree?
Especially if your horizon is longer term..... :
Click to expand...
The thing is, those turkies weren't just bearish, they were naming dates. getting them absolutely wrong, and still claiming the win when "eventually" the market corrected.

We all get it right sometimes... "eventually". But faux gurus have to feed their egos with BS.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

skyQuake said:
RBA can drop rates all it wants but if the credit crunch worsens, the cost of funding for banks will be prohibitive again... Inflation is still well above the 2-3 band, and once the RBA figures out its not slowing, cuts may stall.
Click to expand...

While I loosely agree with the general premise of your post and was generally an inflation bull, I am now unsure.

Commodity prices coming off and labour market driven inflation appears to be slowing from what I am aware, with the economy slowing.

Not to mention, the yield curve is pointing to a fall in rates, so the collective crowd is looking for at least a large enough fall to allow a rate cut. Perhaps not to back within the target rate, but enough to allow a cut. So much for time lags eh! Reserve Bank Cowboys!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

skyhawk said:
I have been reading into the history of this thread and some excellent ideas & posts here. I will be keenly following the comments and ideas made by tech/a and wave picker.

My is as follows.
Click to expand...
skyhawk, I'm still really interested in your justification for your comments on the market direction.

Maybe a chart, or further analysis....

Cheers,
kennas
 
Re: XAO Analysis


Perhaps true, but think about it: why do we need to import debt? Why can we not make all the debt we need?

The answer is that our banks already have toxic US debt, and when that goes sour they will need to recapitalise. And when that happens you get (a) dilution and (b) low profits and low dividends. Which is why I think bank shares are headed lower. They will survive (I hope) but I'm not buying.

And yes, anything can spark a panic, but it won't catch hold and turn into a raging inferno unless fundamentals are already pretty bad.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I thought our debt importing stemmed from our CAD and Consumption outweighing National Saving (Investment) not from the inability of our banks - sort of by definition we are debt importers - but yeah the credit crisis is definitely not helping things.
 
Re: XAO Analysis


Chicken or egg? When debt is cheap and plentiful, especially since Australia is a good credit risk and pays good interest rates, there is a continuous inflow. Cheap debt encourages people to overpay and bid up the prices of assets like houses, and spend on consumption. Cheap debt is the cause of our CAD and lack of saving, not the other way around.

Debt is getting expensive and harder to find, and for the first time in years the balance of payments is positive. Surprise!

Tighter credit may be the only thing to fix our problems, but it isn't likely to be pleasant!
 
Re: XAO Analysis

davo8 said:
Cheap debt is the cause of our CAD and lack of saving, not the other way around.

Tighter credit may be the only thing to fix our problems, but it isn't likely to be pleasant!
Click to expand...

And an increase in interest rates will appreciate the AUD, loosely speaking? Imports cheaper, exports more expensive (for foreigners), what effect will this have on the CAD?

Cheap debt also encourages investment, right? Not sure it only encourages people to bid up the price of houses and consume. What does consumption encourage, other than a CAD? And what will this do to the CAD in % of GDP terms?
 
Re: XAO Analysis

I like it! The market is plugging away making slow, but steady progress.

Looking pretty well bought today though. I'd say a couple of days off are in order now... back to say about 5020/30ish, before chugging on up to 5200 or so.
 
Re: XAO Analysis

Today's levels are pretty important imo. Break of 5050 means 5300 if we get follow thru at 5100. Otherwise down we again again.
 
Re: XAO Analysis


Higher interest rates encourage foreigners to buy AUD. Lower interest rates should benefit the CAD. Consumption is non-productive, a misuse of scarce resources. Consumption is the reward you get for working hard, not a good thing in itself.

Low interest rates encourage direction of capital into non-productive purposes such as residential housing, not productive investment.
 
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