XAO Technical Analysis

pennywise75 · 16 August 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

GreatPig said:
Some bullish RSI divergence showing on the weekly chart now. Seems to be finding support around those old July/Aug 06 levels (ie. these levels - also just above the 50% Fib level).

GP

With Divergence, do you think is a more useful divergence MACD, RSI, ADX?

CamKawa · 16 August 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

pennywise75 said:
With Divergence, do you think is a more useful divergence MACD, RSI, ADX?

They don't mean that much in isolation. If you can get a couple of them to team up together and point in the same direction then you have a stronger case.

GreatPig · 16 August 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

I don't know, but I mainly only look at RSI. Daryl Guppy seems to think it's one of the more reliable indications, although it isn't very good for timing.

GP

harrisonhan · 18 August 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

XAO has rebounded.--- The first target is 5609.

$20shoes · 18 August 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Haven't posted for a while, so I thought I'd share from a long term weekly Bollinger perspective.

What I'm looking for is a constriction of the long term BBs (green 55 week bands) to signify that a major bottom is in. You can see this principle at work at point 1, where the Stochastics bottom out - at the same time the upper Green band turns down and the lower green band turns up. The removal of the longer term volatility often signifies the end of a major move, and of course a trend reversal is then a possibility.

At "2" it looks like the blue band wants to wrap around this latest lower low signifying a minor bottom, but a rally from here (more volatility) would force the blue band further down and we would then be looking for yet another lower low at 4300-4400.

You can see that as of today, the green bands are showing no sign of constricting. The Stochastics are in the process of bottoming out, but being longer term we may have 4-5 months before this completely plays out. If we make @ 4400 in the next 2 months, the upper 55 week BB will be turning down - I'll be looking for the all the lower bands to wrap around the
lower low at this point.

explod · 18 August 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

$20shoes said:
Haven't posted for a while, so I thought I'd share from a long term weekly Bollinger perspective.

.

Yep it looks on the oversold side but from my trend perspective a little lower in the next day or so would see the next major support down towards the 4,000 area.

Based on some of the very ominouse news being forced to the surface in the US due to litigation threats against Lehman Bothers would say we could be in fact in for a very rough trot.

Broadway · 18 August 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

harrisonhan said:
XAO has rebounded.--- The first target is 5609.

Interesting prediction.

I do prefer being a bull than a bear,

Could you give us all a hint why you say this?

thx.

And welcome to the asf forums.

davo8 · 19 August 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

harrisonhan said:
XAO has rebounded.--- The first target is 5609.

Can I quote you?

Or, more to the point, do you want to put some money on that?

MRC & Co · 19 August 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

davo8 said:
Can I quote you?

Or, more to the point, do you want to put some money on that?

Yeh, I thought it could potentially hit 5400 area.

But the DOW is showing a very weak trend, the S&P500 looks very bearish and the NASDAQ looks the only half bullish index.

Any negative movement from US will push us further down to fresh lows, along with the potential further demise of the resources sector.

Not looking bullish at all ATM for the XAO IMO.

Sentiment polls are down the middle at the moment, so no clear indication from them either way.

Seasonality shows this is generally not a bullish time of the year either.

Sean K · 19 August 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

MRC & Co said:
Yeh, I thought it could potentially hit 5400 area.

But the DOW is showing a very weak trend, the S&P500 looks very bearish and the NASDAQ looks the only half bullish index.

Any negative movement from US will push us further down to fresh lows, along with the potential further demise of the resources sector.

Not looking bullish at all ATM for the XAO IMO.

Sentiment polls are down the middle at the moment, so no clear indication from them either way.

Seasonality shows this is generally not a bullish time of the year either.

I agree, pretty bearish sentiment out there from what I've read.

Perhaps more likely a breakdown from this little wedge?

I suppose from the previous trend down is more likely.

Not sure what any EW numbers and letters in the tea pot say.

Watch, and shoot!

korrupt_1 · 19 August 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

If i recall correctly, when the DJIA hit -20% and was officially declared a bear market, it rebounded...

I think - without consulting the charts (going by memory here) - our XAO did something similar too... The ultimate result was that we headed lower and lower to sub -20% ...

I expect the DJIA will do something similar... head towards sub -20% losses as well... We could see the DJIA retest it's lows sooner than later... if this is so, then we could see further downward presure on our XAO

tex.willer · 19 August 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

harrisonhan said:
XAO has rebounded.--- The first target is 5609.

Surely a lot closer to 4609 than 5609.

Could have been a typo

Broadway · 19 August 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Some parts of asia are looking quite unwell. Perhaps dragging down on the xao .

I thought the Chinese markets may have got a boost from the olympics, in terms of sentiment, but they are getting killed. I wonder if they have a PPT?

tech/a · 19 August 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Perhaps the Chinese index would have a little more impact than the Hangseng!

Here is the SSE.

BentRod · 19 August 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Brutal.

What do you reckon Tech...wave 2? lol:

tech/a · 19 August 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

Haha.

Thought more avalanche.
But hey I can here them from here---"Its only a correction"!

CanOz · 19 August 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Haha.

Thought more avalanche.
But hey I can here them from here---"Its only a correction"!

A friend of mine has a best mate from Australia that was a hedge fund manager in Shanghai. He said they packed up a month ago and went home.

"Nothing to buy"

CanOz

Aussiest · 19 August 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

korrupt_1 said:
If i recall correctly, when the DJIA hit -20% and was officially declared a bear market, it rebounded...

I think - without consulting the charts (going by memory here) - our XAO did something similar too... The ultimate result was that we headed lower and lower to sub -20% ...

I expect the DJIA will do something similar... head towards sub -20% losses as well... We could see the DJIA retest it's lows sooner than later... if this is so, then we could see further downward presure on our XAO

Yes, i agree with this. Call it a hunch, but i think we are in for one more low, then it will bounce, but how high i do not know. I reckon it'll bounce back up to the current level of support, then we'll be stuck in a trading range between the 5000 and 5600ish mark, for a while. Until the crisis is officially declared over.

wayneL · 19 August 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

tech/a said:
Haha.

Thought more avalanche.
But hey I can here them from here---"Its only a correction"!

Buy the di... err, troug... errr, valley.... err, buy the abyss!!!!

GreatPig · 19 August 2008

Re: XAO Analysis

What's the problem? If you'd bought in June 05 you'd still be well ahead...

Too bad for those who mortgaged their grandmothers in late 07 though.

GP

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