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XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS

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Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

DTM said:
Anyone getting that sinking feeling?

XJO down 20 points with 20 minutes to go.
Click to expand...

Looks like its official shorting season. Hope you catch that wave.
 
Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

XJO looks ugly for the last hour of trading. Looks like it will drop some more and will carry on through to monday.

 
Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

Getting back to some basic technical analysis, what we see in the XAO (and many of the other indices as well) is a classic head and shoulders reversal. Target downside by my measurements is around 3900.

Cheers,
GP
 

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Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

GreatPig said:
Getting back to some basic technical analysis, what we see in the XAO (and many of the other indices as well) is a classic head and shoulders reversal. Target downside by my measurements is around 3900.

Cheers,
GP
Click to expand...

Nice work GP, I wonder if it'll pullback to retest the neckline? If it fails on that attempt it'll be the surest signal to short imo. I also drew another more horizontal neckline lower than yours but we're splitting hairs here, it clearly has broken support.
 
Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

Next major support seems to be at 3900 as well, followed perhaps by about 3840 and then around 3690. After that, nothing major until around 3500.

If it does take a while to get down to 3900 it could be interesting. It might then meet the longer-term trend line at around that value, in which case would it then turn back up and follow the shallower up-trend again or slice through it like the proverbial hot knife through butter and keep on falling?

My XAO data only goes back to late 2001, so I can't see where an even longer-term trend line might be.

Cheers,
GP
 
Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

Today could be one of those scary days. XJO down 30 points in first ten minutes.
 
Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

DTM said:
Today could be one of those scary days. XJO down 30 points in first ten minutes.
Click to expand...

We are seeing a slight come back at the moment though, I think it could close this afternoon between 10-20 in the red.
 
Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

Well today it found its bottom.

The key reversal indicates some bullish trading for a while.Which will be welcomed by any who are still long.
 
Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

tech/a said:
Well today it found its bottom.

The key reversal indicates some bullish trading for a while.Which will be welcomed by any who are still long.
Click to expand...

Could I ask what makes you think its the bottom? Mabey in the form of a chart please?,

Danke.
 
Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

tech/a said:
Well today it found its bottom.

The key reversal indicates some bullish trading for a while.Which will be welcomed by any who are still long.
Click to expand...
We seem to disagree on some other things but I think you're pretty spot on here tech/a.

Next question is how long and how far the rally... I'm thinking it might be substantial (back near the high) but that's from a non-T/A assessment.

 
Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

Smurf1976 said:
We seem to disagree on some other things but I think you're pretty spot on here tech/a.

Next question is how long and how far the rally... I'm thinking it might be substantial (back near the high) but that's from a non-T/A assessment.
Click to expand...
My thoughts exactly Smurf. In fact I would go further than you and state that I see a lot more heat in the ASX (5000!), with the proviso that the American economy can prevent a meltdown long enough. I'm very bullish with my thoughts (and dollars) on the ASX.

Every man and his dog is negative on equities at the moment and yet the 'correction' is so far less than 10%.

Just like the recent property boom was unprecedented in it's length I can see a similar experience with a bull market in equities as baby boomer and super money continues to seeks higher yield over the next 5 years. Also there is the Chinese consumption beast to feed.

So I'm not one of the people hiding gold ingots under their mattress... At least not quite yet anyhow.

Just my own thoughts
 
Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

The US market seems to be holding up, and I think for Aus it could be the right time for the right companies who have taken a fall in the recent correction.

Correct me if i'm wrong - Aus market is still trading at a lower PE overall than US.

I think I will put in some orders for BHP tonight - im pretty sure it will gap up on opening. I will probably hold at least until their next report showing all their profits from contracts already written.

Do your own research - but I would be staying away from any cyclical/consumer discretionary stocks, the amount of profit downgrades has surprised me, surely there will be more to come. However there may be some value in ones that have already taken the beating.....

TJ
 
Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

TjamesX said:
The US market seems to be holding up,
Click to expand...

Unless something calamitous happens, like GM bonds being downgraded to junk status...

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...546-4050-ABD5-2AEC0A628B1D}&siteid=mktw&dist=

(though as stated in article, they were already treated as junk status anyway)

Wouldn't it be nice if Thurdays decoupling of AUS from the US market continued.

Edit: and Ford to junk status !
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/05/business/05WIRE-JUNK.html?
 
Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

Geez, I get the impression the bulls are crashing this bear party- but will they get kicked out? Let's see how much buying the fundies really do, they must be worried about the uptrend support breaking, that'll cause a free fall. S&P weak again but has recovered this week. Might be some short term ranging above yesterdays low before another drop imo- chart suggests it'll test 3900 this month. Rising labour and materials costs aren't going to help a lot of people stay profitable, stock picking is the key for the bargain hunters, no point just buying something because it's fallen a lot.
 
Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

markrmau said:
Unless something calamitous happens, like GM bonds being downgraded to junk status...

.. and Ford to junk status !
Click to expand...

This happened overnight. GM and Ford Bonds are now junk status.
 
Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

I'm don't believe in all this conspiracy rubbish (like the PPT), but something smells fishy here. The day before S&P downgrades GM bonds to junk status, some billionaire offers to buy stake of GM at 10% premium to market valuation.
 
Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

The PPT is real.

I've actually seen the US government website.

And if pressed hard enough I'll just have to finf that wegsite again.
 
Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

markrmau said:
I'm don't believe in all this conspiracy rubbish (like the PPT),
Click to expand...

Go to google and type in - Executive Order 12631

Cheers
 
Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

iiii
 

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Re: XAO---Im about to change into my SHORTS.

Tech/A

Just to clarify for me.....

Are you saying that on a T/A basis you think the market is going to start heading north again?

Thanx
 
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