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There was an excellent podcast presentation on Andrew Swanscott's "Better System Trader" that mentioned the risk of NOT being in the market (some time ago - I'd have to dig back for the episode). Basically that over the long term the trend is up, albeit with some very inconvenient drawdowns along the way, such that a long term investor can't afford to risk not always having at least some size position in the market.

With that in mind, a couple of long term graphs, on log scale, monthly timeframe.
Supporting trend lines I've sketched in (white) for All ords and All ords Accum showing 5.2% and 9.6% long term underlying growth respectively.

Its so easy to get caught up in the emotion of daily and weekly bounces sometimes its worth zooming right out to review the big picture context. I'm not saying for one minute I'd enjoy a bounce down to the white trend line now, or pretty much any time!

You have to also wonder about the relevance of comparing the current XAO market value to the overheated 2008 top.

On this long timescale, it seems possible the XAO might stay under 6000 as long as 2 years, but within that timeframe perhaps more likely it will pop up considerably higher.

[ATTACH=full]70990[/ATTACH] [ATTACH=full]70991[/ATTACH]

<blockquote data-quote="Newt" data-source="post: 946564" data-attributes="member: 50018">There was an excellent podcast presentation on Andrew Swanscott&#039;s &quot;Better System Trader&quot; that mentioned the risk of NOT being in the market (some time ago - I&#039;d have to dig back for the episode).&nbsp; Basically that over the long term the trend is up, albeit with some very inconvenient drawdowns along the way, such that a long term investor can&#039;t afford to risk not always having at least some size position in the market.With that in mind, a couple of long term graphs, on log scale, monthly timeframe.Supporting trend lines I&#039;ve sketched in (white) for All ords and All ords Accum showing 5.2% and 9.6% long term underlying growth respectively.Its so easy to get caught up in the emotion of daily and weekly bounces sometimes its worth zooming right out to review the big picture context.&nbsp; I&#039;m not saying for one minute I&#039;d enjoy a bounce down to the white trend line now, or pretty much any time!You have to also wonder about the relevance of comparing the current XAO market value to the overheated 2008 top.On this long timescale, it seems possible the XAO might stay under 6000 as long as 2 years, but within that timeframe perhaps more likely it will pop up considerably higher.[ATTACH=full]70990[/ATTACH] [ATTACH=full]70991[/ATTACH]</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Newt, post: 946564, member: 50018"] There was an excellent podcast presentation on Andrew Swanscott's "Better System Trader" that mentioned the risk of NOT being in the market (some time ago - I'd have to dig back for the episode). Basically that over the long term the trend is up, albeit with some very inconvenient drawdowns along the way, such that a long term investor can't afford to risk not always having at least some size position in the market. With that in mind, a couple of long term graphs, on log scale, monthly timeframe. Supporting trend lines I've sketched in (white) for All ords and All ords Accum showing 5.2% and 9.6% long term underlying growth respectively. Its so easy to get caught up in the emotion of daily and weekly bounces sometimes its worth zooming right out to review the big picture context. I'm not saying for one minute I'd enjoy a bounce down to the white trend line now, or pretty much any time! You have to also wonder about the relevance of comparing the current XAO market value to the overheated 2008 top. On this long timescale, it seems possible the XAO might stay under 6000 as long as 2 years, but within that timeframe perhaps more likely it will pop up considerably higher. [ATTACH=full]70990[/ATTACH] [ATTACH=full]70991[/ATTACH] [/QUOTE]

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