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Hi craft,I'm young so I want to be bullish, because bearish means a much worse future for me.I own stocks (mostly LICs with low management fees and ETFs because I'm not a good picker) and I want them to be good investments over time.I don't want drawdowns on those investments.I don't want to get fired from my good job that I like because my (listed) employer suffered a massive drop in profits.I don't want my AUD based nest egg to be worth 0.6 or worse USD again.But asking myself, what has really changed in a good way or actually been fixed since the GFC (when I was in my 3rd year of Uni)? I mean, whatever caused the GFC...did we change our ways? Or learn a lesson? I struggle to find evidence of that. At least US banks are much lower leveraged than pre-GFC, can't say the same for us, more leveraged than ever Why are interest rates and inflation forecasts so low?Why aren't Aussie companies investing for the future? I look at this kind of data http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/5625.0 and see new CapEx is down nearly half in only 4 or 5 years. This one really scares me.If prices of important stuff like housing keeps going up at the current rate what does it mean for standard of living which was one of the bedrocks of our awesome society?Why is our household debt so staggeringly high?Another scary one I ask myself about: stock market is supposed to be about market mechanism causing efficient and robust capital allocation. But in Australia, every year, 9.5% of every salary earners real productivity is going into the stock market in the form of superannuation contributions, whether those companies represent a good or bad allocation of capital. It can't possibly be efficient, and has to be creating a base of bids for at least some companies that don't deserve it.I don't mean to come on your interesting thread and be very bearish, just communicating my honest feelings, hope that is OK.
Hi craft,
I'm young so I want to be bullish, because bearish means a much worse future for me.
I own stocks (mostly LICs with low management fees and ETFs because I'm not a good picker) and I want them to be good investments over time.
I don't want drawdowns on those investments.
I don't want to get fired from my good job that I like because my (listed) employer suffered a massive drop in profits.
I don't want my AUD based nest egg to be worth 0.6 or worse USD again.
But asking myself, what has really changed in a good way or actually been fixed since the GFC (when I was in my 3rd year of Uni)? I mean, whatever caused the GFC...did we change our ways? Or learn a lesson? I struggle to find evidence of that. At least US banks are much lower leveraged than pre-GFC, can't say the same for us, more leveraged than ever
Why are interest rates and inflation forecasts so low?
Why aren't Aussie companies investing for the future? I look at this kind of data http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/5625.0 and see new CapEx is down nearly half in only 4 or 5 years. This one really scares me.
If prices of important stuff like housing keeps going up at the current rate what does it mean for standard of living which was one of the bedrocks of our awesome society?
Why is our household debt so staggeringly high?
Another scary one I ask myself about: stock market is supposed to be about market mechanism causing efficient and robust capital allocation. But in Australia, every year, 9.5% of every salary earners real productivity is going into the stock market in the form of superannuation contributions, whether those companies represent a good or bad allocation of capital. It can't possibly be efficient, and has to be creating a base of bids for at least some companies that don't deserve it.
I don't mean to come on your interesting thread and be very bearish, just communicating my honest feelings, hope that is OK.
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