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Hi craft,


Looking back on the start of the thread missed this chart. Appreciate the effort that must have gone into compiling the AU CAPE. Some questions just for my own edification.


* Is it calculated by yourself or from a resource?

* Is your AU CAPE for which index or universe?

* Are the component earnings weighted by market cap?

* Are you using the monthly average or monthly closing price for the P component? AFAIK Shiller uses the monthly average which provides a smoother metric.

* Would you mind providing the average CAPE across the timeseries?


In return I proffer the following for trade ;)


There is a CAPE chart I keep in my notes which came from

http://www.australiancentre.com.au/sites/default/files/NewsDocs/Australian Shiller PE based on AED data_Final.pdf that goes back to 1975 but stops at 2012. One can approximately impute the forward values from there if desired but it looks like their 2011ish value matches close to yours eyeballed.

[ATTACH]65858[/ATTACH]

(h/t The Australian Centre - australiancentre.com.au)


The AU CAPE as measured by StarCapital (German hedge fund AFAIK) almost exactly the same day as your post above has CAPE measured at 15.5. My guess is because they are tracking the MSCI Australia which has less stocks than your universe (about 80 IIRC).

http://www.starcapital.de/research/stockmarketvaluation - FWIW, On a relative basis we are near the undervalued end of the spectrum of global indices.


The "Retirement Investing" blog had ASX200 CAPE at 15 on the dot in early 2013:

http://www.retirementinvestingtoday.com/2013/01/the-asx-200-cyclically-adjusted-pe-aka.html but further updates were not forthcoming.


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