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As you mentioned, this is a (your) long term thread, so I'm wary of derailing. However, some care is needed when qualifying the aggregate statements "for all the chart predictors". Personally I watch the US markets (especially S&P500) as global risk proxy so most of my analysis (re breadth, vols, etc) are in that regard, even though I'm holding only a small amount of US stocks relative to mostly AU stocks.It's pretty clear at this point that things aren't moving in lockstep. e.g.:NASDAQ-100: Jan lows a full 5% above Aug lows.S&P500: Jan lows pierced the Aug lows and held.Russell 2000: Broke down pretty severely from the Aug lows in Jan by more than 10%.S&P ASX 200: Jan lows pierced the Aug lows less severely than the S&P500 and held.Nikkei 225: Jan lows about 10% lower than Aug lows and lots of intervention jawboning from BoJ.FTSE China 25: Jan lows also down about 10% from Aug lows.etcetera. So in some cases the "gloom" was less misplaced than in others and the significance of the Aug lows depended entirely on which chart, but you are reading it all and interpreting through the lens of your own portfolio which probably resembles most indices in only a minor fashion.Obviously in that instance the utility of a random selection of ASF predictions will be quite low for you, especially in providing any form of confirmation of anything.Do you mind explaining why it must be significant buying? Why not a cessation of selling pressure and drift higher? Or short covering which must necessarily abate? Or whatever. Strange to hear you referencing a mystical "they" after reading the OakTree note you linked which tries to hammer home the point of aggregate market pricing.FWIW, in the interest of clarity, I define "oversold/overbought" rather simply as the position of current closing price in relation to the 20, 2.0 bollinger band and look at that across 3 timeframes (daily, weekly, monthly). It's a useful technical description of the location of the current price.What one does with that description is entirely a matter of the strategy employed - a quantification, not a prescription - OB/OS will be close to breakout levels for some, a fade entry for others, signal to rebalance for some and ignored completely by others.
As you mentioned, this is a (your) long term thread, so I'm wary of derailing. However, some care is needed when qualifying the aggregate statements "for all the chart predictors". Personally I watch the US markets (especially S&P500) as global risk proxy so most of my analysis (re breadth, vols, etc) are in that regard, even though I'm holding only a small amount of US stocks relative to mostly AU stocks.
It's pretty clear at this point that things aren't moving in lockstep. e.g.:
NASDAQ-100: Jan lows a full 5% above Aug lows.
S&P500: Jan lows pierced the Aug lows and held.
Russell 2000: Broke down pretty severely from the Aug lows in Jan by more than 10%.
S&P ASX 200: Jan lows pierced the Aug lows less severely than the S&P500 and held.
Nikkei 225: Jan lows about 10% lower than Aug lows and lots of intervention jawboning from BoJ.
FTSE China 25: Jan lows also down about 10% from Aug lows.
etcetera. So in some cases the "gloom" was less misplaced than in others and the significance of the Aug lows depended entirely on which chart, but you are reading it all and interpreting through the lens of your own portfolio which probably resembles most indices in only a minor fashion.
Obviously in that instance the utility of a random selection of ASF predictions will be quite low for you, especially in providing any form of confirmation of anything.
Do you mind explaining why it must be significant buying? Why not a cessation of selling pressure and drift higher? Or short covering which must necessarily abate? Or whatever. Strange to hear you referencing a mystical "they" after reading the OakTree note you linked which tries to hammer home the point of aggregate market pricing.
FWIW, in the interest of clarity, I define "oversold/overbought" rather simply as the position of current closing price in relation to the 20, 2.0 bollinger band and look at that across 3 timeframes (daily, weekly, monthly). It's a useful technical description of the location of the current price.
What one does with that description is entirely a matter of the strategy employed - a quantification, not a prescription - OB/OS will be close to breakout levels for some, a fade entry for others, signal to rebalance for some and ignored completely by others.
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