Normal
Ok so here’s the 3 decades of data on a log scale.[ATTACH]65321[/ATTACH]If 4500 has significance as support then too perhaps does a regression channel of the data. Not forgetting we are in the long term investing part of the forum, the issues around breadth,and index make up and how CAPE type valuations are fairly supportive – I think there is some justification for a long term investor to be paying attention for buying opportunities. IF we end up at the bottom of that channel in 30years we get a compound annual capital growth return of 5% at the regression extension its 6.3% and at the top its 8%. Add to that the current grossed up market dividend yield of ~6%. What’s your cash rusting at?Of course the channel may not be valid in the future but that can be dealt with if it happens.Now if you’re not an investor and instead your available money is actually tied up as working capital in a trading business then forget the long term. Or if your financial circumstances dictate you shouldn’t be taking volatility risk, forget the long term but otherwise you have to be careful that you don’t lose perspective of the big picture and let near term noise turn you into a dick for a tick (note for self). Given that Super should be a 40-60+ year investment if you are blessed with good health and possibly generational if your any good at this game then perhaps given cash's long term track record (worse than bills) maybe you could do with a little more optimism.[ATTACH]65320[/ATTACH]
Ok so here’s the 3 decades of data on a log scale.
[ATTACH]65321[/ATTACH]
If 4500 has significance as support then too perhaps does a regression channel of the data. Not forgetting we are in the long term investing part of the forum, the issues around breadth,and index make up and how CAPE type valuations are fairly supportive – I think there is some justification for a long term investor to be paying attention for buying opportunities. IF we end up at the bottom of that channel in 30years we get a compound annual capital growth return of 5% at the regression extension its 6.3% and at the top its 8%. Add to that the current grossed up market dividend yield of ~6%. What’s your cash rusting at?
Of course the channel may not be valid in the future but that can be dealt with if it happens.
Now if you’re not an investor and instead your available money is actually tied up as working capital in a trading business then forget the long term. Or if your financial circumstances dictate you shouldn’t be taking volatility risk, forget the long term but otherwise you have to be careful that you don’t lose perspective of the big picture and let near term noise turn you into a dick for a tick (note for self).
Given that Super should be a 40-60+ year investment if you are blessed with good health and possibly generational if your any good at this game then perhaps given cash's long term track record (worse than bills) maybe you could do with a little more optimism.
[ATTACH]65320[/ATTACH]
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