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First 3 drive Nominal GDP – if anything is missing it would be split between capital & Labour because that pretty much translates GDP growth to earnings growth. Then there are equity distributions and dilutions components to determine EPS growth. 4 is amongst the technical’s that feed into the earnings multiple along with other psychological points no doubt.  My view is that the earnings multiples are cyclical. 5. I’m not sure if the index rebalancing aspect adds (or subtracts) anything. 

 

My crystal ball is stuffed so I’ll defer to your crystal here.

I don't have faith in the direction of the line either – nor do I have I have faith that it will end. So I’m stuck with reacting to what I see, and from my long term perspective things aint broke yet.

Not for a second suggesting people should not chase alpha – I certainly try to as a stock picker. Not forgetting only 50% (less costs) of money chasing alpha can ever achieve it and contrary to popular forum opinion it takes works. 

I’m really not trying to make a prediction here or convince anyone – just a thread to put some perhaps contrary to popular opinion at this time, bullish perspectives.