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XAO Banter Thread

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are you also thinking every AUD tick below 1 mirrors its way onto several local sectors ?
 
Bearish wedge on the XAO weekly....:behead:
 

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CanOz said:
Bearish wedge on the XAO weekly....:behead:
Click to expand...

Good chart Canoz. Personaly I don't believe there has been as much irrational exuberance in our market since the bottom of the gfc and subsequently we have less likelihood of there being a substantial crash if the eurozone implodes. I'm not saying there won't be a drop. I think there will be but I don't see it dropping much below 4200 if that.

In recent weeks we have dropped away from the 4400 area on the comodity price falls impacting on the mining sector however the finance sector has held up very well reducing the fall. Most of the current prices in the non mining sector are fairly tight relative to earnings etc.

With the current low price earnings levels there would have to be a significant destablisation of our economy to really justify a big fall. The big hedge funds had a field day shorting our markets down in 2008. But the market is a changed beast since then with the amount of borrowings and leverage that existed then almost non existant now. The hedge funds are relatively quiet now (except possibly the recent finger pointing at FMG). The reporting season so far has been fairly good. In most instances, even better than analyst expectations.

IMO the reality is there will be continued volitility as exuberance is undermined by panic then bubbles to the top again. Be prepared to trade the volitility. I reckon there will be plenty of opportunities. I see the wedge continuing for a little longer then possibly having a small break out upwards before it gets slapped back to the 4300 - 4500 range.
 
It will be what it will be. Suffice it to say that the move is being affected by global macro sentiment and we are in a risk off environment for the moment. This will give downward pressure until that is fully priced into the market. We need a washout before we'll see higher prices again...
 

I smell fear today... I think it's coming from me

90% cash at the moment so can't be that bad I suppose...
 
Hmmmm, did I say 4200. Looks like a bit of flight to the US$. Property sector took a hit with some of the bigger ones down 2.5%+. Possibly international investors pulling more funds out before they get hit with the double whammy of falling share prices and the Aud$ dropping against the US$.
 
Here is the weekly again after today's drop...and it closed on the low...you don't get much more bearish than this....Still i would expect a bounce soon, and that bounce would be a short opp as well.

Quite often these patterns get retested right at the break, before carrying on again...lets see.corn:

CanOz
 

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CanOz, you mentioned a wash was required (could have been in another thread, not sure) before we would see any major upward activity, what exactly does this constitute?
 
Ves said:
CanOz, you mentioned a wash was required (could have been in another thread, not sure) before we would see any major upward activity, what exactly does this constitute?
Click to expand...

A wash out is a huge down day in a with high volume but the market closes higher than the low. A situation where all the 'weak' hands are 'washed' out of the market. Also known as capitulation.

CanOz
 
So like the big one in early August last year? Gotcha.
 
Only 2 weeks ago we were in solid uptrend. While that trend looks to have been smashed, I don't think we're on the edge of a cliff yet.

Will take a few more gyrations before it decides to range or enter solid downtrend.

Lots of job losses and business closure in Vic last 6 months.
 
Unemployment went down according to the April ABS figures, while there has been lots of retrenchments in the MSM, doesn't mean all is bad.

Unemployment still low and trending down.

Read the news, analyse the facts to get the real picture.

Cheers
 
Ves said:
So like the big one in early August last year? Gotcha.
Click to expand...

Spot on Ves , you obviously can read a price chart quite well. I wish a few more would learn as well,might save them a few K.:shake:

Here's the washout and the lower high that MUST happen before an uptrend can be confirmed.

Cheers,


CanOz
 

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CanOz said:
A wash out is a huge down day in a with high volume but the market closes higher than the low. A situation where all the 'weak' hands are 'washed' out of the market. Also known as capitulation.

CanOz
Click to expand...
CanOz, do you mean to say, "but the market must close higher than the OPENING"? hence the white candlestick?
just wanna get it straight. nice tech tip. I enjoy this kind of info.
 
newanimal said:
CanOz, do you mean to say, "but the market must close higher than the OPENING"? hence the white candlestick?
just wanna get it straight. nice tech tip. I enjoy this kind of info.
Click to expand...

The market must close well off the LOW, as the price does a complete reversal. If it closes higher than the open then all the better, but its not needed.

-Just think of what happens during that day...the market opens and falls dramatically with the selling being intense at times.
-Then the market does a 180, and claws back all those losses and closes well above the low of the ay, even above the open.

Thats a wash, where millions of shares change hands from the weak holders to the strong, who say 'thank you very much' and hold until the next top...where the reverse happens...

CanOz
 
I'm curious to hear others' thoughts on what the Greek problem will do to our and other markets.

Surely markets can't go on dropping until the next greek election? Will they bottom out somewhere and go into a holding pattern until Greece has a government?


satanoperca said:
Unemployment still low and trending down.

Read the news, analyse the facts to get the real picture.
Click to expand...

Well if you did that, you'd know that the economy is shedding full-time jobs everywhere, including in the latest employment data. Hardly a good thing.
 
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