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XAO Banter Thread

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sammy84 said:
Tech

What's your opening price parameter? Is it 1 March?

Patchau, I am looking for 1 March to 31 March.

Cheers all.
Click to expand...

Err who? :

Anyway ...open price = first trading day of month to close on last trading day of month.
 
Here is a look at XAO returns per month (first trading day to last) from the start of 2004 to end of last year.

Don't think there is much there in terms of + or -.

 
Trembling Hand said:
Err who? :

Anyway ...open price = first trading day of month to close on last trading day of month.
Click to expand...

Sorry TH. I sometimes lump you and Tech together in my mind

Thanks for the stats. I usually pay attention to seasonal analysis is the US but have tended to ignore Australia. I think your last post with the stats from 2004 would confirm that Australia doesn't have a seasonal bearing.
 
OS markets go up, the Aussie battler stays flat. OS markets go down, the Aussie battler goes down too!

Sure is frustrating the heck out of me.
 
RazzaDazzla said:
OS markets go up, the Aussie battler stays flat. OS markets go down, the Aussie battler goes down too!

Sure is frustrating the heck out of me.
Click to expand...

You're looking at the wrong markets. US & Euro markets went up. Japan went up.

China has been going nowhere to down.

Which one do you think we now follow?
 
Anyone want to share thoughts about today's action? Overseas markets were pretty much flat overnight, and ours goes up by 1.3% to peak - not least on a day of bad home loan and business confidence data. Seems illogical.


- Is the market just testing resistance at 4255?

- Are the miners just rebounding off support?

- Is the market frothing about an interest rate cut due to poor housing finance data this morning?

- Are people covering shorts ahead of futures & options expiry day on Thursday? Wouldn't it make more sense to do it on Thursday than today unless the market truly believes we're headed straight back to 4300?


 
RazzaDazzla said:
OS markets go up, the Aussie battler stays flat. OS markets go down, the Aussie battler goes down too!

Sure is frustrating the heck out of me.
Click to expand...

On what basis should the XAO/XJO be going up? Here is a list of the ASX 20.

AMP
ANZ
BHP
BXB
CBA
CSL
FGL
MQG
NAB
NCM
ORG
QBE
RIO
SUN
TLS
WBC
WDC
WES
WOW
WPL

For each of these companies I encourage you to check out their EPS growth over the past two years and the EPS growth forecasts. Given that the ASX 200 is weighted towards four banks, a couple of miners, a telecom and a couple of retailers - all with very modest EPS growth outlooks, and given global macro-economic risk factors, I can't see much reason on a FA basis to get too bullish on the XAO. Sure it's 15% oversold on my estimates but that's the risk discount the market is demanding in the current macro environment.

Looking at individual companies such as an Ausdrill, Monodelphus, Mermaid Marine, Mineral Resources, Dominos Pizza - well that is another matter.
 
Have a question for the more experienced.

Trading CFDs, I noticed the ASX200 market was closed for about 5 minutes at around 4:15pm today during which time it was up by about 25 points or so (then went straight back down to where it was once this "close" was over).

What's that all about?
 
Starcraftmazter said:
Trading CFDs, I noticed the ASX200 market was closed for about 5 minutes at around 4:15pm today during which time it was up by about 25 points or so (then went straight back down to where it was once this "close" was over).

What's that all about?
Click to expand...
They are futures linked not ASX indexes such as ASX200. In this case the SPI. Open from 9:50 am to 4:30 pm. Then 5:15 pm to 7 am (I think thats the overnight close)
 

Which CFD provider? Are you sure it wasn't 4:30 like TH said? Can you still see it on the charts?
 
skc said:
Which CFD provider? Are you sure it wasn't 4:30 like TH said? Can you still see it on the charts?
Click to expand...

IG markets, it was not a CFD on a futures contract, just the index. I am 100% positive it was at 4:15ish - definitely before 4:20pm. I haven't seen anything like it previously, so that's why I'm very curious.
 
Starcraftmazter said:
IG markets, it was not a CFD on a futures contract, just the index. I am 100% positive it was at 4:15ish - definitely before 4:20pm. I haven't seen anything like it previously, so that's why I'm very curious.
Click to expand...

Can't see it on my IG chart.



Can't really see what you are describing on the SPI chart either.

BTW, ASX200 index is basically a CFD on a futures contract, with added quirks like dividends and interest charges.
 

They might have closed it until closing match at 4:10. Since its linked to cash maybe there was some bid/asks trying to get done on the uncrossing. I used IG but have not seen it..
 
skyQuake said:
They might have closed it until closing match at 4:10. Since its linked to cash maybe there was some bid/asks trying to get done on the uncrossing. I used IG but have not seen it..
Click to expand...

Do you know what it was? The Futs roll over. They were swapping the link from 03-12 to 06-12.
 
Wow what a day, almost straight away the asx200 went for the 4300 mark, got to 4310.7 and got sold off just a bit. Wonder what it will finish at.
 
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