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Positive Expectancy
- Joined
- 24 September 2008
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Does it make any difference if the fortune teller uses "green tea leaves" or "black tea leaves"?
Logic is still wrong.
Say I go to a fortune teller who reads tea leaves to find out what my future holds. It doesn't mean that I believe the tea leaves are input to my future. I am simply believing that the tea leaves for some reason can forecast / predict / describe with some probability my future.
Same with technical analysis. You don't have to believe it, but you haven't disprove it with the logic you are offering.
......please those with open minds continue to explore the simple effective ways price structure can be read and used to improve returns , dont let intellectual dribble put you of . swing highs /lows , ranges , cycles of time over price can all be used extremely successfully to outperform .
trading of news ........ by the time you hear it ....... its priced in
LOL is all i gots to say
sorry for low content post but some of these comments are laughable.....
it seems just because THEY cant do it ........means NO one can do it...
p.s great calls of late nun you are a true psychic
That's fine, given a 50/50 chance there is always going to be some people who lie on the right of the distribution - and claim they can predict which way a coin will land. It's more valid to reach conclusions that are constructed from first-principles, than by selection bias.LOL is all i gots to say
sorry for low content post but some of these comments are laughable.....
it seems just because THEY cant do it ........means NO one can do it...
Well you can say I'm wrong till you are blue in the face, in every manner you choose. But a meaningless stream of text is very easy to ignore. Perhaps you could explain why my model is wrong, rather than briefly alluding to an analogy that barely fits. I'm happy to be wrong and corrected (from which I benefit), but being told I am wrong with no real reason has always indicated to me that I am probably right.Logic is still wrong.
Say I go to a fortune teller who reads tea leaves to find out what my future holds. It doesn't mean that I believe the tea leaves are input to my future. I am simply believing that the tea leaves for some reason can forecast / predict / describe with some probability my future.
Same with technical analysis. You don't have to believe it, but you haven't disprove it with the logic you are offering.
Difference is, he won't have modified the weather by the time it gets to you. Perhaps think before you type.So is the meteorologist who provided the information on what the weather will be tomorrow or don't you believe that either.
It did actually. Warren Buffet and Jim Rogers, the exact opposite of techies, both said 'buy, buy, buy' when the Nikkei went below 9000. Economics dictates that uncertainty increases the demand for money, and hence bidding down of prices. This is on top of any damage to the value of the equities. When the uncertainty clears, all else being equal, prices increase as the demand for money decreases.A good trader (and blind freddy) knew that an earthquake and tsunami smashed Japan and that a Nuclear emergency was happening. They also know that USA and Euro debt is sky high! Yet look at the rally after the quake! FA did not say "this is a great time to buy!"
And of course, those peaks and troughs of the news end up making patterns on a chart, which techies some days later then use - well after the information comes to hand. Like I said, news events occur after the economic reality has played out - indeed they are one of the biggest information lags of all. I did not say to trade on the news.trading of news ........ by the time you hear it ....... its priced in
That's fine, given a 50/50 chance there is always going to be some people who lie on the right of the distribution - and claim they can predict which way a coin will land. It's more valid to reach conclusions that are constructed from first-principles, than by selection bias.
sideright
of the distribution
How often is the probability of a move UP equal to a move DOWN ?
And Why would it be necessary to have to predict ?
Maybe it is enough to just stay on the side
Motorway
Can you elaborate? Other than the cliched up the stairs and down the escalator part that we've all heard about, I think there is a fair bit of merit in studying the distributions.
I suppose it also differs from stock to stock
That ABOVE the Blue Line the Probability of a move UP is greater than a Move DOWN and that UNDER The Red Line the Probability of a move DOWN is greater than a Move UP !
Well you can say I'm wrong till you are blue in the face, in every manner you choose. But a meaningless stream of text is very easy to ignore. Perhaps you could explain why my model is wrong, rather than briefly alluding to an analogy that barely fits.
That's fine, given a 50/50 chance there is always going to be some people who lie on the right of the distribution - and claim they can predict which way a coin will land. It's more valid to reach conclusions that are constructed from first-principles, than by selection bias.
I'm happy to be wrong and corrected (from which I benefit), but being told I am wrong with no real reason has always indicated to me that I am probably right.
Aren't you playing for decreases in interest rates using govt bonds, where interest and yields priced into US Treasuries are near all time lows?Economics dictates that uncertainty increases the demand for money, and hence bidding down of prices. This is on top of any damage to the value of the equities.
Well you can say I'm wrong till you are blue in the face, in every manner you choose. But a meaningless stream of text is very easy to ignore. Perhaps you could explain why my model is wrong, rather than briefly alluding to an analogy that barely fits.
...being told I am wrong with no real reason has always indicated to me that I am probably right.
I am quite new to the stock market, so my comments will no doubt seem naive.
Wouldn't it be better to use aspects of both FA and TA when choosing what stocks to buy? It would seem like you are missing out on a wealth of information if you just choose one or another.
Surely both Analysis techniques have a place in what we do? Like I said earlier, I am not educated enough (yet) to know.
Apologies if this has been covered previously.
Wouldn't it be better to use aspects of both FA and TA when choosing what stocks to buy? It would seem like you are missing out on a wealth of information if you just choose one or another.
Surely both Analysis techniques have a place in what we do?
Interesting, thanks for that. I have finally received some explanation of technical analysis which ties in economic reality.The best theory that I can come up with to explain these phenomena is that cash resources for the majority of market participants is finite (the US might be an exception to this - they seem to be printing a lot of additional currency lately!) hence placing a limit to the extent of uptrends regardless of how many fundamentally positive events occur. For a technical analyst, upon recognising that almost everyone who wants to be in (the market) is invested, the only thing left to do is to wait for the signal to take the profits and get out! Technical analysis of volume combined with price action has often yielded clues that indicate exhaustion of the bulls versus the bears thereby presaging the advent of changes in market direction.
I am happier to be right, sure. But if one cannot enjoy being corrected, and learning from ones mistakes, what is the point in argument anyway?Are you really happy to be wrong? (My B. S. detector is registering at the top end of it's scale here! Maybe I need to invest in a new detector!)
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